Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic Odds, Picks & Predictions (Game 4)
By Chris Amberley in NBA Basketball
Published:
- The Celtics are seven-point road favorites versus the Magic in Game 4 of their first-round playoff series
- Jaylen Brown (finger, knee) is questionable for Boston, while Jrue Holiday (hamstring) is out
- See the Celtics vs Magic odds below, plus my Boston vs Orlando picks and prediction for Game 4
The defending champion Celtics are heavy favorites to win the East yet again. However, there are reasons to be pessimistic. They dropped Game 3 of their first-round series to the Magic on Friday, and now face major injury concerns ahead of Sunday’s Game 4 in the NBA playoff bracket.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10pm ET, inside the Kia Center, in Orlando, FL, with TNT providing the broadcast coverage.
Celtics vs Magic Odds
Despite being bit by the injury bug, Boston is still favored by seven points and -305 on the moneyline. Orlando comes back as +245 underdogs, while the total sits at 198. Sunday’s NBA public betting trends show that most bettors think the over/under is too low: 87% of the tickets and 88% of the money are on the over, even though Game 3 produced only 188 points.
Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic Injury News
We’ll get back to the total momentarily, but first let’s cover the Celtics injury situation. Starting point guard Jrue Holiday is out, while perennial All-Star Jaylen Brown is questionable.
Holiday is down for the second straight game with a hamstring issue. He’s an integral part of the team and was a major factor in last year’s championship run. Holiday is one of the best guard defenders on the planet, and was averaging 10 points, 5.5 assists and 1.5 steals through Games 1 and 2.
As for Brown, he’s been dealing with a knee issue for quite some time. It kept him out of Boston’s lineup down the stretch, and he hasn’t looked like his All-Star self for a while. In addition to the knee troubles, he dislocated his index finger on Friday after being on the wrong end of a hard foul. Brown is questionable for tonight’s contest, but the expectation is he plays at less than 100%.
Celtics vs Magic Picks
- Over 198 (-110 at DraftKings)
A major reason why Orland was able to cut the series deficit to 2-1 is their physical play. They’ve been bullying Boston and getting away with it. Something tells me the refs won’t be so lenient tonight. The Celtics have been complaining to anyone who’ll listen about the hard fouls and overly aggressive defense, and I believe the refs will want to step in tonight before this thing gets ugly.
BOS vs ORL Advanced Stats (Playoffs)
Even with the bully ball Orlando is playing, Boston is still making 45% of its shots this series. They’re shooting 34% from three, and that’s where I believe we’ll see some positive regression. The Celtics made more threes than anyone else during the regular season. They shot 37% from beyond the arc, while Kristaps Porzingis was up over 41% on 6 attempts per night.
Porzingis has been a colossal disappointment through three games, averaging less than 11 points per game. He’s 0-for-7 from three, and shooting only 28% overall. If Boston wants to remain a true NBA Championship odds they need more from KP, and that starts tonight.
As for Jayson Tatum, he returned on Friday after missing Game 2, and looked extremely sharp. He poured in 36 points, and splashed four triples. Tatum averaged 30 points during the regular season versus Orlando, knocking down 57% of his shots.
I think Tatum continues his dominance of the Magic tonight, and that he gets some more support from Porzingis and company as the refs start clamping down on Orlando’s questionable defensive tactics. That’s one reason I’m betting over 198, but it’s not the only one.
Celtics vs Magic Predictions
Holiday’s absence is a big boost to the Magic offense. Orlando has underwhelming guard play and the lack of an elite defender like Holiday to pester them will help the Magic get into their offensive more effectively.
That should help take some of the pressure off Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who’ve been carrying Orlando. The duo is averaging 59 points per game, and 4+ threes. Wagner is actually due for some positive regression from downtown, as he’s making only 19.2% of his triples this series on 9 attempts per game. This is a guy that shot much better from three during the regular season, so there’s reason to be optimistic about a higher offensive ceiling.
Bottom-line, 198 points is not high enough regardless of how well these two teams defend. Boston was second in offensive rating during the regular season and is due for an offensive breakout. Orlando should benefit from Holiday’s absence, and bury a few more threes to keep up.
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
