UFC 304 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets: Edwards vs Muhammad, Aspinall vs Blaydes

• UFC 304 takes place this Saturday (July 27) at Co-op Live Arena in Manchester, England
• Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad 2 headlines the main card in a welterweight title rematch
• Read below for UFC 304 odds, picks and predictions for Edwards vs Muhammad and other top fights

UFC 304 goes down this Saturday, July 27 at the Co-op Live arena in Manchester, England. The main card kicks off at 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view, following prelims on ESPN2 and early prelims on ESPN+.

Headlining the event is a welterweight title rematch between champ Leon Edwards and No. 2 ranked Belal Muhammad. The co-main event is also a rematch, this time for the interim heavyweight strap, as Tom Aspinall takes on Curtis Blaydes.

I’ve previewed the top fights and given my best bets below. Let’s get into the UFC 304 betting odds and our best MMA bets for Saturday.

UFC 304 Odds – Main Card

In the UFC 304 odds, Tom Aspinall is the heaviest favorite on the main card. The British interim heavyweight champ is priced at -370 in his title defense against Curtis Blaydes, which is 79% implied win probability.

Despite being a heavy -260 favorite, Leon Edwards is the most wagered on fighter Saturday. Betting splits released by BetMGM Sportsbook show Edwards getting 86% of ML handle in his bout with Belal Muhammad.

The UFC 304 main card airs live on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET following prelims on ESPN2 and ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET.

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Odds as of July 25, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the available DraftKings promos for UFC 304 on Saturday.

Edwards vs Muhammad 2 Prediction

The main event of UFC 304 is a rematch nearly two years in the making. Leon Edwards (-260) defends his welterweight title against Belal Muhammad (+220) after their March 2021 fight ended in a no-contest due to an accidental eye poke by Edwards.

There’s some bad blood here, as Muhammad claims he was on his way to winning before the eye poke. However, Edwards was ahead 19-8 in significant strikes at the time of the stoppage. Since then, Edwards has won and twice defended the 170-pound belt, while Muhammad is 5-0 with a TKO over Sean Brady.

FIIIIIIIIGHT WEEEEEEEK!

Edwards vs Muhammad is LIVE SATURDAY on @ESPNPlus PPV at 10pmET! #UFC304 pic.twitter.com/8GpM8rVGv9

— danawhite (@danawhite) July 22, 2024

Edwards should have the striking advantage with his slick kickboxing and 8-inch reach advantage. His 70% takedown defense will also be key in thwarting Muhammad’s wrestling-heavy game plan. Fighting in front of his countrymen, Edwards will be spurred on to deliver a big performance.

Muhammad’s path to victory is grinding on Edwards against the fence and on the mat. But I’m not sure his wrestling will be enough to overcome Edwards’ striking and TDD. The champ is in his prime and battle-tested against elite competition.

UFC 304 Picks :

• Edwards by unanimous decision

Aspinall vs Blaydes 2 Prediction

An interim heavyweight title fight headlines the UFC 304 co-main event, as Tom Aspinall (-410) takes on Curtis Blaydes (+310) in a rematch. Blaydes won their first meeting via TKO in just 15 seconds after Aspinall’s knee gave out throwing a kick.

Now healthy, Aspinall has the all-around skills to give Blaydes problems. His slick boxing can pick apart Blaydes on the feet, while his black belt level BJJ makes him a threat if the fight hits the mat. However, Aspinall has never gone past the 2nd round in the UFC.

Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes were LOCKED IN on each other before shaking hands. 🤝 #UFC304 pic.twitter.com/BbroX8VgHS

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) July 25, 2024

That’s where Blaydes can take over if he survives the early onslaught. His wrestling is relentless, and he averages nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes. If he can turn it into a grinding affair and test Aspinall’s gas tank, the +310 underdog price is enticing.

Ultimately though, I favor Aspinall getting it done inside the distance. His precise striking and explosive power should be the difference against the hittable Blaydes. But don’t be shocked if the dog makes this a gritty 5-round war.

UFC 304 Picks:

• Aspinall via TKO

UFC 304 Best Bet: Kape +160 over Mokaev

One of my favorite bets on the UFC 304 card is Manel Kape (+160) to upset Muhammad Mokaev (-192) in a flyweight tilt. This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup and I like the style advantage for the underdog Kape.

Mokaev will no doubt look to implement his strong wrestling game, as he averages nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes. The problem is, he struggles to hold his opponents down and do damage. Against a slick striker like Kape, that could spell trouble.

Kape has a 77% takedown defense and some of the scariest striking in the division. If he can stuff a few takedowns early and make Mokaev think twice about shooting, he should start to take over with his speed and power on the feet. At plus money, he’s well worth a shot.

Prediction: Kape via unanimous decision

Quick Picks:

• Allen (-250) to grind out a decision over Chikadze (+205)
• Leroy Duncan (-142) to continue his rise over short notice Rodrigues (+120)

Final World on UFC 2024

I like Edwards and Aspinall to get it done and retain their belts, but don’t count out live dogs like Muhammad and Blaydes. My favorite bet is Kape at +160 to upset Mokaev in an explosive flyweight scrap.

Enjoy the fights, and best of luck with your wagers!