Picks for UFC 234 (Whittaker vs Gastelum) – Don’t Chase Underdogs
By Dylan Bowker in Mixed Martial Arts News
Updated: March 27, 2020 at 9:53 am EDTPublished:
- UFC 234 takes place Saturday, February 9th, in Melbourne, Australia
- Can Anderson Silva upset Israel Adesanya?
- See our three best bets for the event
UFC 234 emanates from Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia on Saturday, February 9th at 7pm EST. The main and co-main event tilts are of high consequence for the future of the Middleweight division.
The entire card offers up something for everyone, though. Of all of these compelling prize fights, here are the ones that I think represent the best bets. (If you’re looking for a further breakdown of the main and co-main events, see our UFC 234: Whittaker vs Gastelum Odds and Predictions.)
Rani Yahya Falls to Ricky Simon
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ricky Simon | -135 |
| Rani Yahya | +105 |
*All odds taken 2/4
Yahya has a litany of choke-based victories and has taken home several limbs with him over a 6+ year career. Ricky is a streaking prospect and has held LFA gold (one of the bigger titles on the North American regional scene).
This is Simon’s most important bout to date against his toughest opponent. A lot of Ricky’s wins have been against similarly tenured, prospect-level talents, but this would be a chance for him to acquire a veteran scalp.
Yahya vs Simon Tale of the Tape
| 26-9-0 | MMA Record | 14-1-0 |
| 0 | Knockouts | 5 |
| 20 | Submissions | 2 |
| 3 | Current Streak | 7 |
| Constrictor Team |
Team/Camp Affiliation | Gracie Barra Portland |
| Mark Hominick Eddie Wineland Johnny Bedford Mike Thomas Brown |
Statement Win(s) | Chico Camus |
| 66 kg ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship 2007 2nd Degree BJJ Black Belt |
Titles/ Distinctions | LFA Bantamweight Champion |
Simon definitely has to contend with the near 80% finishing rate of Yahya but I think Ricky can grind out the win. With Yahya at #15 per UFC’s ranking system, a great performance in Melbourne could jettison either man into a consequential 135 lb fight.Â
It won’t be an easy out for either, but based on the respective ages and career arcs, I have to give the edge to Simon.
Pick: Ricky Simon (-135)
Israel Adesanya Over Anderson Silva
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -650 |
| Anderson Silva | +425 |
Considering who one half of this co-main event is, it may seem blasphemous to see this fight as one of the best bets.
Anderson “The Spider” Silva has amassed several UFC records, is the GOAT Middleweight, and many regard him as the pound-for-pound best MMA fighter of all-time.
| 15-0 | MMA Record | 34-8 (1 No Contest) |
| 13 | Knockouts | 20 |
| 0 | Submissions | 6 |
| 15 | Current Streak | 1 |
| City Kickboxing | Team/Camp Affiliation | Team Nogueira |
| Derek Brunson Brad Tavares Marvin Vettori |
Statement Win(s) | Dan Henderson Chael Sonnen Vitor Belfort Forrest Griffin Rich Franklin |
| AFC Middleweight Champion HFS Middleweight Champion |
Titles/ Distinctions | Longest reigning UFC Champion of all time Most title defenses in Middleweight history |
Observing the two combatants recent five bouts, though, it’s hard to edge it to anyone but Stylebender.
Israel Adesanya has so far remained unbeaten in his career and the kickboxing marvel improves by leaps and bounds between MMA bouts. Whereas Anderson has only one single W in the last several fights/years.
Adesanya wins and likely gets the finish.
Pick: Israel Adesanya (-650)
Kelvin Gastelum Beats Robert Whittaker
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | -265 |
| Kelvin Gastelum | +205 |
I’m edging it to Gastelum but not to undermine Whittaker in any way. Bobby Knuckles’ resume and performances speak volumes. It’s just that Gastelum is such a high level game day player that I can’t help but pick him.
| 16-3 | MMA Record | 20-4 |
| 6 | Knockouts | 9 |
| 4 | Submissions | 5 |
| 2 | Current Streak | 9 |
| Kings MMA/ Yuma United MMA | Team/Camp Affiliation | PMA Super Martial Arts |
| Ronaldo Souza Michael Bisping Tim Kennedy |
Statement Win(s) | Ronaldo Souza Yoel Romero Derek Brunson |
| Ultimate Fighter 17 winner | Titles/ Distinctions | UFC Middleweight Champion Ultimate Fighter: Smashes winner |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICiBVoUcg7A
Both are excellent 185-pounders but the odds are set correctly in this fight.
Pick: Kelvin Gastelum (+205)
Sports Writer
A part-time writer and full-time broadcaster, Dylan has hosted MMA talk shows Lights Out and Pure Fight Radio with featured guests like Jens Pulver, Roy Nelson, Miesha Tate, and covered some of the biggest MMA promotions like Rumble in the Cage, Unified MMA, and King of the Cage.
