St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Odds, Predictions & Best Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Baseball (Aug 4)
- The Chicago Cubs look to take three of four from the St Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball
- Sitting at the bottom of the NL Central, the Cubs are favorites tonight with Justin Steele on the mound
- See the Cardinals vs Cubs odds, predictions, and player-prop picks for August 4
The Chicago Cubs (54-59, 29-26 home) finish off a four-game series with the St Louis Cardinals (57-54, 28-29 away) on Sunday Night Baseball from Wrigley Field tonight at 6:10 pm CT/7:10 pm ET.
Chicago won the first two games of the series (5-4, 6-3) and was on track to make it three in a row yesterday, holding a 4-1 lead in the eighth inning before St Louis took advantage of a fielding miscue to mount a 5-4 comeback victory on Saturday.
With Justin Steele on the mound facing St Louis veteran Miles Mikolas, the Cardinals vs Cubs odds for Sunday Night Baseball favor Chicago winning the series finale.
St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Runline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Louis Cardinals | +126 | +1.5 (-166) | Over 8.5 (-120) |
| Chicago Cubs | -148 | -1.5 (+138) | Under 8.5 (-102) |
The Cubs are priced at -148 to win in Sunday’s MLB odds (a 59.68% implied win probability) with St Louis a +126 road underdog (44.25%). On the runline, Chicago is +138 to win my two or more while the Cards are -166 to keep the score within a run.
The over/under is sitting at 8.5 with the over favored at -120. The Cubs have the fourth-best under record in baseball this season at 49-59-5 O/U. St Louis has skewed slightly to the over at 55-53-3.
Odds as of Aug. 4 at FanDuel. Claim a FanDuel sign-up bonus to bet on Sunday Night Baseball between the Cardinals and Cubs.
The Cardinals remain second in the NL Central but are 5.5 games behind division-leading Milwaukee and have faded to +500 (or longer) in the MLB division odds. Chicago, a full 9.5 games back, is as long as +5000 to win the Central crown.
In the MLB public betting splits, the public is hammering the home team. Chicago is getting 81% of moneyline handle and 84% of money bet on the runline at the moment.
Miles Mikolas vs Justin Steele
| 8-8 | Record | 2-5 |
| 4.99 | ERA | 3.38 |
| 4.39 | xERA | 3.08 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.11 |
| 16.2% | K% | 23.4% |
Despite an ugly win/loss record, Steele had a brilliant first half of the season, posting a 2.71 ERA before the All-Star break. But the extra rest doesn’t seem to have agreed with the Cubs’ ace: Steele has allowed 12 runs in 15 innings across his three post-break starts, and Chicago is 0-3 in those games.
Steele has been allowing solid contact and struggling with control, issuing nine walks in his last three starts. In his last three starts before the break, he issued just two free passes in 22.0 innings of work. He allowed just four runs in those games and the Cubbies went 3-0.
Sunday will be Steele’s first start of the season against the Red Birds, but there is a decent history between the 29-year-old lefty and the St Louis lineup. In 71 ABs, they are slashing just .239/.289/.338 against Steele with one home run off the bat of Paul Goldschmidt.
The history between Mikolas and the current Cubs lineup is even deeper. In 190 total at-bats, Chicago hitters have a .258 average with a .666 OPS, including five homers. Rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong is 2-for-2 against the 35-year-old righty and both hits were longballs.
Sunday will be Mikolas’ fourth start of the season against Chicago and the results have been a real mixed bag. He was decent in the first, going 6.0 innings while allowing three runs on four hits and two walks. He was borderline dominant in the second, allowing just one run on four hits and no walks with five Ks over 6.1 innings. But Mikolas was battered by the Cubs in his most-recent outing, allowing six runs on eight hits (including four homers) with just two strikeouts over 5.1 innings on July 14.
Overall, St Louis is 2-1 straight-up against the Cubs in Mikolas’ three starts this season.
St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction & Picks
Overall, Mikolas has been the better pitcher since the All-Star break. In two starts after the hiatus, he’s gone 12.0 innings allowing five runs on 14 hits and two walks. He’s also been much better in road games this season (3.89 ERA) than at home (6.38 ERA).
I am very gun-shy around Steele at the moment given his post-All-Star break decline, and the St Louis lineup is outperforming the Cubs in almost every meaningful hitting metric.
The better value is on the Cardinals tonight at +126.
STL vs CHC picks:
- Cardinals moneyline (+126)
- Steele under 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
