Rockies vs Rays Picks, Predictions & Odds (March 28)

• The Tampa Bay Rays are -215 moneyline favorites over the Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon
• Kyle Freeland (5-8, 5.24 ERA in ’24) takes the ball for the Rockies, while the Rays counter with Ryan Pepiot (8-8, 3.60 ERA in ’24)
• See my Rockies vs Rays picks and predictions below, along with the odds

A quick look at the MLB win total projections show no NL team is projected for more losses than the Colorado Rockies. I’m betting the first one comes in their season opener on Friday, against the Tampa Bay Rays. Oddsmakers agree, pegging Tampa Bay as heavy chalk in the MLB odds. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 pm ET from George M. Steinbrenner Field, in Tampa, FL, with Rockies.TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Rockies vs Rays Prediction

The MLB win total odds have Colorado with an over/under of 58.5 victories. That’s five wins lower than any other team in the NL. Last season, they finished with a National League low 61 victories, and they haven’t done anything significant to bolster their roster.

The starting pitching, which finished with a MLB worst 5.54 ERA last season, projects to be just as bad this year. There’s no further evidence needed than the fact that Kyle Freeland is Colorado’s Opening Day starter.

Freeland has seen his numbers dip in four consecutive seasons, culminating with a dismal 2024. He yielded an opponent average of .291, with a .507 slugging percentage and .836 OPS. Pitching at altitude doesn’t help, but his numbers were even worse on the road. Freeland coughed up an average north of .300 away from Coors Field, posting an ERA just shy of 6.00.

The Rays are by no means a juggernaut lineup, but the bulk of the talent from last season returns. That group is led by Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, with the ladder in for a favorable matchup thanks to the short right field porch in Tampa’s temporary stadium. One Rays hitter to look out for is Christopher Morel, who’s 2-for-6 lifetime against Freeland, with a pair of home runs. I’m predicting Tampa Bay roughs up Freeland today, sending him to the showers early.

Kyle Freeland vs Ryan Pepiot 2024 Stats

The Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot. The righty posted respectable numbers in his first full season as a starter last year, averaging 9.8 strikeouts per 9 innings. He yielded two runs or less in 13 of his final 14 appearances in 2024, allowing four or fewer hits in five of his last six starts.

The issue with Pepiot is that his control can occasionally abandon him. His walk rate is higher than you’d like to see, but against this Colorado lineup he can afford to be aggressive. The Rockies have little offensive talent outside of Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, as the rest of the lineup is made up of unproven assets or players past their prime (like Kris Bryant).

Rockies vs Rays Pick

• Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+110) at Bet365

Colorado finished bottom-five in scoring last season, despite playing 81 home games at baseball’s most hitter friendly park. Away from home they were truly abysmal, averaging 3 runs per game, with a pathetic .217/.275/.364 slash line.

Tampa’s temporary home this season, which is the Yankees Spring Training home park, is a more favorable place to hit than most MLB stadiums, but I’m not convinced this Rockies lineup can find success.

I’m betting on the superior starting pitcher and the better lineup today, making the Rays -1.5 my favorite pick.

Rockies vs Rays Odds

The most favorable odds we can find on Tampa Bay -1.5 is +110 at Bet365. That’s much more appetizing than their -215 moneyline. The total for this contest sits at 8, with the Rockies coming back as +180 underdogs.

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I’m certainly not alone in backing the Rays. As of 10 am ET this morning, 92% of the run line tickets were on Tampa Bay, with those wagers accounting for 91% of the handle in Friday’s MLB public betting splits.