MLB Picks Today – Predictions for Monday, April 14th Including Braves vs Blue Jays, Giants vs Phillies

• The MLB has a ten-game slate on Monday, April 14th
• My MLB predictions today include a bet a low-scoring game between the Nationals and Pirates
• See my favorite MLB picks today (Monday, April 14)

The 2025 MLB season marches on with another ten-game slate on Monday, April 14th, starting with Paul Skenes, the favorite in the NL Cy Young odds, leading his Pittsburgh Pirates against the Washington Nationals at 6:40 pm ET. I have scoured Monday’s MLB odds to find the three bets I like best today. I have set out my MLB picks today in the table below. Under the table, find my analysis of each of my MLB predictions on Monday.

MLB Picks Today (April 14)

Two of my picks today are moneyline bets on home teams (Blue Jays, Phillies) while the third is on the under in the first five innings of the Nationals/Pirates game in Pittsburgh which, as mentioned, is the earliest start of the day. First pitch in Giants/Phillies is scheduled for 6:45 pm ET, while Braves/Blue Jays has a 7:05 pm ET start time.

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MLB Pick #1: Nationals vs Pirates Under 2.5 in First Five Innings

Paul Skenes has been saddled with a disappointing 3.44 ERA through three starts in 2025, and his K-rate is down from 33.1% last year to 28.6% so far this season. But don’t let that fool you; he is still dealing. Skenes has a miniscule 1.47 xERA and 1.31 FIP, both of which are better than his numbers as a rookie. He hasn’t allowed a home run, has induced an elite 59.6% ground-ball rate, and is walking just 4.3% of hitters (down from 6.2% last year).

In other words, don’t worry about that 3.44 ERA. It’s bad luck from a small sample size. And on Monday, he gets to face a lineup with just three total at-bats against him (two for Amed Rosario, one for Josh Bell) which tends to be advantage pitcher.

Of course, to hit this under, I’ll need the Nats staff to do their part, as well. Rookie Brad Lord will get his second career start. He lasted 3.0 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in his first, allowing two hits and two walks with four punchouts. He’s looked solid enough. But the main reason I’m ok with this pick with an untested rookie on the mound for Washington is Pittsburgh’s anemic offense. The Pirates are second-last in the MLB in runs scored, averaging just 3.1 runs per game. Only the MLB-worst Rockies are scoring fewer.

MLB Pick #2: Blue Jays Moneyline vs Braves

My second MLB pick today is the Toronto Blue Jays (9-7, 5-2 home) to win at home against the underperforming Atlanta Braves (4-11, 1-9 away), who are still sitting on just one road victory this season. ATL started the season 0-7, getting swept in road series at the Padres and Dodgers. They started their current road trip by losing two of three to the Rays.

The Braves’ offense, which set records two seasons ago, has continued the downward trend that started last year. In 2023, when they mashed a record-tying 307 homers, they averaged 5.9 runs per game (947 total). Last year, that dropped precipitously to just 4.4 RPG (704 total) and, this year, it’s down to 3.3 through the first 15 games.

Toronto will have 28-year-old rookie Easton Lucas on the mound, and he’s been spotless through two starts (10.1 innings), allowing zero runs on four hits and three walks (0.68 WHIP) with 11 strikeouts. His peripherals match his sparkling surface stats, too: 1.83 xERA, 1.74 FIP, 2.99 xFIP.

Atlanta will be turning to second-year pitcher Grant Holmes, who has a 4.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP through 9.0 innings spread over three appearances (two starts). He was solid as a rookie (3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) but in his only appearance against Toronto, gave up three hits and three RBI against the four batters he faced.

MLB Pick #3: Phillies Moneyline vs Giants

In the City of Brotherly Love tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies (9-6, 5-1 home) start a three-game set with the San Francisco Giants (11-4, 7-2 away), with Taijuan Walker (0.00 ERA, 1.12 WHIP in 10.2 IP) on the mound for the home team against Landon Roupp (3.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 10.0 IP) for the visitors.

The Giants have been excellent in their first 15 games, and it’s largely thanks to their pitching staff, which has allowed just 52 runs to date (3.5 RPG). But I don’t have confidence that will continue tonight with Roupp facing a Phillies lineup that loves hitting at home. Roupp isn’t an overpowering pitcher (93.7 MPH average velo on his four-seamer last year) and had a middling K-rate of 21.7% as a rookie, while also struggling with control (12.0% walk rate).

Veteran Taijuan Walker, who has still yet to allow a run this season, should give the Phillies an edge on the mound.