Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Preview & Prediction
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
Philadelphia’s Vince Velasquez and Atlanta’s Brandon McCarthy will both try to keep their impressive 2018 seasons going tonight (April 18, 7:07 PM) when the Phillies and Braves meet in the rubber match of a three-game series.
With the Mets on fire and the Nationals finding their groove, neither Philly nor Atlanta can afford to fall too far back in the NL East race if they have serious playoff aspirations.
Below, find the opening odds, key statistics and betting trends, weather forecast, and score prediction for tonight’s game.
Opening Odds
| MONEYLINE | RUNLINE | O/U RUNS |
|---|---|---|
| PHILLIES (-101) | PHILLIES +1.5 (-207) | OVER 8.5 (+100) |
| BRAVES (-109) | BRAVES -1.5 (+177) | UNDER 8.5 (-120) |
After getting hammered by Atlanta in his first start (2.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R), Velasquez has been very solid in his last two, going a combined 12.2 innings while giving up just eight hits and two earned runs and striking out 13.
Take that with a grain of salt, though, since his last two starts came against the Marlins and Rays, two teams with less than potent offenses. The control he’s demonstrated has nonetheless been impressive, with just two walks over those 12.2 innings.
If [Brandon McCarthy] can keep his ERA around 3.40 for a full season, it would be a career year [for the 12-year vet].
McCarthy has outdone expectations so far in his first season with the Braves, and has been remarkably consistent in this first three starts. He’s gone between 5.0 to 6.0 innings in each one, and has given up between four and six hits, and one to three runs. Atlanta has taken advantage of those performances, winning all three of his starts, though McCarthy wound up with a no decision against Washington last time out.
If he can keep his ERA around 3.30 for a full season, it would be a career year. Last season was the first time the 12-year vet posted an ERA lower than 4.00 when making at least 15 starts, and he barely squeaked under that threshold with a 3.98 ERA in 16 starts for the Dodgers.
Team Stats
| PHILLIES | STATISTIC | BRAVES |
|---|---|---|
| 10-6 (5-5 Away) | RECORD | 9-7 (5-3 Home) |
| +24 | RUN DIFFERENTIAL | +23 |
| RHP Vince Velasquez: 1-1, 3.52 ERA, 1.37 WHIP | PROBABLE STARTER | RHP Brandon McCarthy: 2-0, 3.31 ERA, 1.29 WHIP |
| .356 BA, .965 OPS (in 45 at-bats) | LINEUP VS OPPONENT STARTER | .306 BA, .747 OPS (in 62 at-bats) |
| 3.38 ERA (13th in MLB) | BULLPEN ERA | 2.73 ERA (7th in MLB) |
| .710 (16th in MLB) | TEAM OPS | .780 (4th in MLB) |
| 13-6 (5-4 Away) | 2017 HEAD-TO-HEAD | 6-13 (4-5 Home) |
Betting Results & Trends
| PHILLIES | TREND | BRAVES |
|---|---|---|
| Won 1 | WIN/LOSS STREAK | Lost 1 |
| 4-1 | LAST 5 | 3-2 |
| 7-9 | RUNLINE RECORD | 8-7 |
| 7-8-1 | OVER/UNDER SPLIT | 5-8-3 |
| Under 2 | OVER/UNDER STREAK | Under 2 |
The Phillies were able to even this three-game set at one apiece last night (5-1) thanks to a steady start from Nick Pivetta, excellent relief pitching, and some clutch hitting from Rhys Hoskins in extras.
Weather Forecast at Opening Pitch
| TEMPERATURE | 79° |
| HUMIDITY | 34% |
| WIND SPEED | SW 16 MPH (crosswind to left field) |
| P.O.P. | 0% |
Score Prediction
| PHILLIES | 6 |
| BRAVES | 5 |
Both starters have been good out of the gate, but both also have god-awful numbers against the opposing lineup in not-insignificant sample sizes. The Phillies .356 average and .965 OPS against McCarthy is particularly concerning. Add in the utter domination Philly exhibited in the season series last year, and getting them at even money looks like decent value.
The better play here, though, may be the over (8.5) at +100. Both of these lineups can put up runs, and the starters are overachieving.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
