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Padres vs Dodgers Odds, Picks & Predictions for Game 2 (Oct. 6)

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball

Published:


San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado walks to the dugout after striking out
Oct 5, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado (13) strikes out in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game one of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
  • The LA Dodgers are home favorites in Game 2 of the 2024 NLDS against the San Diego Padres
  • Yu Darvish starts for the Friars opposite the Dodgers’ Jack Flaherty
  • See the Dodgers vs Padres odds, predictions, and picks for Game 2 on Sunday, Oct. 6

A 7-5 comeback win in Game 1 last night, the Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, 52-29 home) look to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their best-of-five NLDS with the San Diego Padres (93-69, 48-33 away). First pitch is scheduled for 5:03 pm PT/8:03 pm ET at Dodger Stadium on Sunday night.

After the starters (Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto) struggled last night, both managers will be hoping for better in Game 2 when Yu Darvish and Jack Flaherty square off.

The Padres vs Dodgers odds favor Los Angeles, which finished with the second-most home victories (52) in the MLB in the regular season, trailing only the Phillies (54).

San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers Odds

Teams Moneyline Runline Total
San Diego Padres +125 +1.5 (-165) O 8.5 (-105)
LA Dodgers -150 -1.5 (+140) U 8.5 (-115)

The Padres vs Dodgers moneyline lists LA at -150 with the Padres coming back as +125 road underdogs in Sunday’s MLB odds. On the runline, the Dodgers are +140 to win by two or more runs, while the Friars are -165 to keep the score within a run.

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Odds as of Oct. 6 at ESPN Bet. Check out the ESPN Bet reviews or lock in the ESPN Bet promo code to wager on the 2024 MLB playoffs.  

The run total is listed at 8.5 with the under only slightly favored at -115.

San Diego staked itself to an early 3-0 lead in Game 1 last night thanks to a three-run first inning. But the lead didn’t last long; LA tied it in the second and had built a two-run lead by the end of five.

Both teams went deep into their pens yesterday. The Dodgers used five relievers over 6.0 innings, while San Diego also used five relievers to cover the final 4.2 innings.

YouTube video

SD vs LAD Starting Pitchers for Game 2: Darvish vs Flaherty

7-3 Record 13-7
3.31 ERA 3.17
3.64 xERA 3.51
1.07 WHIP 1.07
23.6% K% 29.9%

The starting pitching matchup in Game 2 is an intriguing one. Yu Darvish only managed 81.2 IP this year due to injuries. He wasn’t especially effective in his final 11 starts, allowing 20 runs (19 earned) over 34 innings (5.03 ERA).

But Darvish has excellent numbers against the 2024 Dodger lineup, and the sample size is huge. In 244 total at-bats, the Dodger hitters have a .201/.272/.344 slashline. Freddie Freeman has the best track record against Darvish, with a .263 average and .912 OPS (including three homers and three doubles) in 38 at-bats.

Flaherty, meanwhile, has been hit much harder by the Padres batters. In 68 ABs, San Diego’s lineup has a .279 average and .917 OPS against the 28-year-old righty. Jurickson Profar is 4-for-11 with two homers and two doubles, while Fernando Tatis Jr is 5-for-8 with a homer and three doubles.

Flaherty has a 3.60 career ERA in 25.0 postseason innings. Darvish has a 4.18 ERA in 58.0 career innings in the playoffs.

Padres vs Dodgers Game 2 Prediction

The odds are more lopsided than I was expecting given the pitching matchup and how deep the Dodgers went into their bullpen last night. Darvish’s track record against LAD is about as good as it gets considering the firepower in the Dodger dugout.

Flaherty, on the other hand, has really struggled against the Padre hitters, and he was also declining in his final few starts of the regular season (10 earned runs in 14.0 innings), which pushed his ERA from 2.86 to 3.17.

I like the value on Darvish and the Padres to even the series at +125.

SD vs LAD Pick: Padres moneyline (+125) at ESPN Bet

 

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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