Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Predictions, Picks & Best Odds (Oct. 11)

• The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the NLDS on Friday night
• Yu Darvish starts for the Padres against Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers
• Below, see the Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 predictions, picks, and best odds on Oct. 11

The Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, 52-29 home) managed to stave off elimination with a resounding 8-0 win over the San Diego Padres (93-69, 48-33 away) on Wednesday and now the NL West rivals meet in a decisive Game 5 of the National League Division Series on Friday at Chavez Ravine (5:08 pm PT/8:08 pm ET). The Dodgers are listed as home favorites, ranging from -142 to -150 in Friday’s MLB odds.

San Diego Padres vs LA Dodgers Predictions & Picks

• Padres moneyline (+125) at ESPN Bet
• Tatis Jr over 0.5 RBI (+150) at FanDuel

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB playoff betting record: 17-15 (+2.03 units)

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The 26-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been mostly solid in his injury-shortened rookie season, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 90.0 innings. His last three starts have been anything but, though. He’s managed just 11.0 innings across the three starts, allowing 11 earned runs on 14 hits and five walks with 11 Ks. The worst of the bunch was his Game 1 start against the Padres, when he was tagged for five runs on five hits over just 3.0 innings with a single strikeout.

In the regular season, the Padres got to Yamamoto for eight runs on eight hits over 6.0 innings across two starts. San Diego won both games (15-11 in the season opener in Korea, and 8-7 in extra innings in San Diego in April).

The Padres’ lineup is now mashing a .371 average against Yamamoto and 1.107 OPS. Manny Machado has taken him deep twice, while Fernando Tatis Jr is 3-for-3 with a double and a walk.

I backed Darvish and the Padres in Game 2 on Sunday largely because of his excellent history against the Dodger hitters, and the 38-year-old delivered. Darvish went seven strong while allowing just three hits, two walks, and one run. The only concerning part was the he only managed three Ks. San Diego ran away with a 10-2 victory.

Even though Yamamoto logged more innings during his time in Japan, he looks out of gas two months since returning from a shoulder injury.

SDP vs LAD Game 5 Starting Pitchers: Darvish vs Yamamoto

Best Padres vs Dodgers Game 5 Odds

There isn’t a ton of variations in the Padres vs Dodgers odds at this point but there is a little. The best odds on a Dodger victory can currently be found at Caesars, where LAD is a -140 favorite to win straight-up. The best price on the Padres advancing is +125 at ESPN Bet.

ESPN Bet also has the best over price, listing over 7.5 at -125. All other sportsbooks have the line at 8.0. Only DraftKings has the O/U at -110 both ways, so that’s the best place to bet the under at the moment.

Runline bettors will want to hit up bet365 to wager on the Dodgers -1.5 at +150, or FanDuel to bet the Padres +1.5 at -172.

The MLB public betting splits for Friday show the public hammering the over in Game 5 between the Padres and Dodgers. As of 11:55 am ET, a massive 79% of handle and 80% of wagers was on over 8.0 runs. The first four games in the series have all featured at least eight runs, and have averaged 10.75 RPG.

The Dodgers head into Friday as the +350 second-favorite in the World Series odds, trailing only the Yankees who punched their ticket to the ALCS last night. The Padres are +550 fourth-favorites.