Opening White Sox vs Guardians Game 5 Odds & Projected Starters
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
The Cleveland Guardians (85-77, 41-40 home) have rallied from an 0-2 deficit to force a deciding Game 5 with the Chicago White Sox (84-78, 36-45 away) in the ALDS. The AL Central rivals will meet in the winner-take-all finale on Saturday, October 10th, in Cleveland. First pitch is slated for 8:00 pm ET.
The opening White Sox/Guardians Game 5 odds favor Cleveland by a not-insignificant margin.
White Sox vs Guardians Game 5 Odds
At prediction market Kalshi, the Guardians are trading at 60¢ to advance, which is equivalent of -150 American odds in traditional sportsbook terms. The White Sox come back at 43¢ (or +133).
The runline and run total have yet to be posted.
Despite only five teams remaining, both Cleveland and Chicago remain afterthoughts in the World Series odds; the Guardians are trading at 7¢ and White Sox at 3.3¢.
Probable Starters for CHW vs CLE Game 5
The most-likely pitching matchup in Game 5 is Sean Burke for the White Sox against Gavin Williams for the Guardians. Both logged five(-plus) innings in Game 2. Williams also pitched the final three outs of Game 4 on Thursday, throwing 19 pitches. That may limit his longevity in Game 5 but shouldn’t prevent him from starting given that Friday is a travel day.
Williams went 5.0 innings in Game 2, allowing four hits and two earned runs with a scintillating 11 strikeouts.
Burke went 5.1 innings following opener Anthony Kay (who lasted just 0.1 IP) and Sean Newcomb (2.0 IP). He allowed just one run on one hit with six punchouts.
Neither team hit a home run in Game 2.
BvP History
On the Chicago side, the most-promising BvP history belongs to Miguel Vargas, who is 7-for-15 off Williams in 20 plate appearances. That includes one home run and four RBI. He went 1-for-2 in Game 2.
On the Cleveland side, Austin Hedges has mashed Burke, going 5-for-9 in 10 plate appearances with a home run, a double, and an RBI.
Early Pick for Guardians vs White Sox Game 5
At +133 odds, the White Sox represent better moneyline value than the Guardians (-150) in Game 5. The market’s 60% implied win probability for Cleveland leans far too heavily on home-field advantage and Gavin Williams’ reputation, overlooking crucial edges that favor Chicago.
On the mound, Burke holds a legitimate run-prevention edge over Williams: Burke posted a superior 3.34 regular-season ERA compared to Williams’ 3.76 mark, surrendered nine fewer home runs (19 to 28), and demonstrated elite postseason form with 5.1 innings of one-hit relief against Cleveland in Game 2.
Head-to-head splits further tilt the matchup toward the South Siders. Burke has utterly neutralized Cleveland’s lynchpin, holding José Ramírez hitless in ten career at-bats with five strikeouts. Conversely, Chicago’s middle of the order has punished Williams, led by Miguel Vargas’s .467 average and 1.217 OPS, alongside Munetaka Murakami’s 1.089 OPS.
The deciding factor lies in late-inning durability. While Chicago shielded high-leverage arms Sean Newcomb and Noah Schultz during Game 4, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt emptied his bullpen. Closer Cade Smith and setup man Hunter Gaddis have now pitched in all four ALDS contests. Forced into relief duty, Tanner Bibee walked two, allowed two runs, and eliminated himself as a fresh tandem option.
Friday’s off day certainly helps Cleveland but bullpen fatigue still favors Chicago. That was the case before Williams came on in relief in Game 5 and is all the more true after.
The White Sox at +133 offer overwhelming positive-expected value in what is fundamentally a coin-flip elimination game.
Enjoying our betting coverage? Want more picks, predictions, and analysis from our proven experts? Make SBD a preferred source in your Google searches!
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
