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MLB Opening Day Odds and Picks
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The 2022 MLB season gets underway on Thursday, April 7th
- St. Louis and Atlanta are the biggest favorites on the board on Opening Day
- See below for analysis on the 9-game MLB Opening Day slate
It’s a little later than originally scheduled, but Opening Day has finally arrived. The MLB season officially gets underway in the Bronx on Thursday at 1:05pm ET, as the Red Sox and Yankees renew their storied rivalry.
The nine-game slate feature five matinees in total, while the action culminates in the Desert with a tilt between the Padres and Diamondbacks at 9:40pm ET.
MLB Opening Day Odds
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | OFF | +130 | OFF |
| New York Yankees | OFF | -155 | OFF |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| Milwaukee Brewers | OFF | -175 | OFF |
| Chicago Cubs | OFF | +143 | OFF |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| New York Mets | OFF | OFF | OFF |
| Washington Nationals | OFF | OFF | OFF |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| Cleveland Guardians | -1.5 (+145) | -114 | O 8.5 (-108) |
| Kansas City Royals | +1.5 (-175) | -105 | U 8.5 (-110) |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| Seattle Mariners | OFF | -120 | OFF |
| Minnesota Twins | OFF | +100 | OFF |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | +1.5 (-121) | +185 | O 8 (-114) |
| St. Louis Cardinals | -1.5 (+104) | -225 | U 8 (-105) |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| Cincinnati Reds | +1.5 (-121) | +185 | O 8 (-114) |
| Atlanta Braves | -1.5 (+102) | -225 | U 8 (-105) |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| Houston Astros | +1.5 (-200) | +105 | O 8 (-115) |
| Los Angeles Angels | -1.5 (+165) | -125 | U 8 (-104) |
| Matchup | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
| San Diego Padres | -1.5 (+102) | -165 | O 8.5 (-113) |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | +1.5 (-121) | +138 | U 8.5 (-106) |
Odds as of April 6th at Barstool Sportsbook.Â
Our betting card starts in Atlanta, where the defending champion Braves look poised to make another serious run at the title.
Reds vs Braves Betting Analysis
Atlanta currently boasts the fourth shortest World Series odds, behind only the Yankees, Blue Jays and Dodgers. Their top-three starters are back for 2022, and the additions of Kenley Jensen and Collin McHugh give them arguably the best bullpen in baseball.
Offensively, Freddie Freeman is out, but they replaced his bat with a more dangerous one in Matt Olson. The 28-year-old is fresh off a 39 home run, 5.8 WAR campaign, numbers that were significantly better than Freeman’s.
Matt Olson: Destroyer of baseballs 💥
(via @Braves)
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) April 3, 2022
Ronald Acuna Jr., who was the favorite in the MLB MVP odds for much of last season before going down with an injury, won’t be back until May, but the team is still loaded with talent at the plate.
They’ll face Cincinnati on Thursday, a team that projects for the seventh fewest wins in baseball per FanGraphs. The Reds lost a pair of former All-Star outfielders in the offseason (Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez), as well as top-three starter Sonny Gray.
Check it out, @Mariners fans!
Jesse Winker is @MLBNow's top left fielder heading into the 2022 season. #Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/Ll0KWEBKec
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) March 25, 2022
The Braves will send ace Max Fried to the hill, who was 14-7 last season, including 7-3 at home. The southpaw is fresh of a postseason in which he yielded two runs or less in three of five starts, and has held Cincinnati’s projected Opening Day lineup to two hits over 22 at-bats during his five-year career.
Your 2022 Opening Day starting pitcher: pic.twitter.com/e8GGg0HMPE
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) March 30, 2022
The Reds will counter with Tyler Mahle who was hit hard in his only start against the Braves last season. Atlanta’s bats roughed him up for six hits and four runs over 6.0 innings, including two home runs.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+102)
Guardians vs Royals Betting Analysis
The biggest move Cleveland made in the offseason was changing its name to the Guardians. They didn’t add a single bat to improve an offense that ranked bottom-13 in runs per game. They did just extend Jose Ramirez to a monster contract, but outside of him and Franmil Reyes, not batter slugged higher than .445 last season.
That means they’ll likely need to rely on pitching most days, and fortunately for them, they’ll feature one of the top-two candidates in the Cy Young odds on Thursday versus the Royals.
Shane Bieber is fresh off an injury plagued 2021, but he’s proven when he’s on he’s virtually unhittable. He sports a K/9 rate north of 13.0 over the past two seasons combined, and has owned KC batters. He’s undefeated in his past five starts against the Royals, allowing just six runs over 27 innings.
Shane Bieber, 5Ks thru 3. pic.twitter.com/BqU9nV36BC
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 3, 2022
The last time he pitched at the Royals Kauffman Stadium, he yielding just a single run en route to a 6-1 Cleveland victory.
Bieber Career Stats at Kauffman Stadium
| GS | W/L | ERA | WHIP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2-0 | 4.10 | 1.32 | 28 |
As for the Royals, they’re once again a bottom feeder in the AL Pennant odds. They ranked bottom-three in the American League in runs and home runs last season, yet chose not to upgrade their offense.
One move they did make was bring back former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke. The 38-year-old is fresh off three straight winning seasons in Houston, where he was spoiled by pitching for one of the best hitting clubs in baseball.
He did pitch pretty well last season, posting a 4.21 xFIP and was 1-0 in two starts versus Cleveland, holding them to a .213 batting average.
With two below average offenses set to clash on Opening Day, we should be looking to target the under. Low scoring games were the norm at Kauffman Stadium last season, especially when KC was an underdog. 61.4% of Royals’ game came in under the total in those instances, while the majority of Bieber starts also tended to produce low scoring games.
Is it too early to start pounding the table for a Shane Bieber extension?
— Nick Pedone (@NickPedone12) April 6, 2022
12 of his 16 outings last season produced a total of 8 runs or lower, including eight of his 10 starts against AL Central opponents.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
Chris Amberley
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
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