Odds Say Mike Trout Gets $401-450 Million in Next MLB Contract
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 30, 2020 at 3:35 pm EDTPublished:
- Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout is expected to break the bank when he comes up for free agency in 2021
- OF Bryce Harper recently set a new standard for the highest contract in MLB history when he signed with the Phillies for $330 million
- Trout is expected to pull down a pact valued at over $400 million
Mike Trout is about to find his pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, and it figures to be the largest catch in Major League Baseball history.
The Angels reportedly have considered making Mike Trout a record $350 million contract offer, but will it be enough? https://t.co/qaa5E0cPzr pic.twitter.com/SjmNEacvTl
— CBS Sports MLB (@CBSSportsMLB) March 3, 2019
Whether you go by the eye test, analytics, or a combination of both, there’s one thing the old school and the moneyball thinkers agree upon. It’s that Los Angeles Angels outfielder Trout is the finest all-around ballplayer in the big leagues today.
That’s why everyone in the industry figures the contract that Trout ultimately signs two years from now will obliterate any pact out there on the market. The moment Bryce Harper got $330 million from the Philadelphia Phillies, the speculation began.
After Bryce Harper's monster deal, MLB fans share best guesses for Mike Trout's future contract https://t.co/leYg2e1BKL pic.twitter.com/yeEeUvwLaP
— For The Win (@ForTheWin) March 1, 2019
Will it be $400 million? Or $500 million? Maybe even as much as $1 billion? All of those numbers have been thrown out there, and while some will shake their head at those digits, no one’s ready to suggest at this point that any of them are out of the realm of possibility.
The odds are favoring Trout’s next deal to be worth between $401-$450 million.
Odds on Money in Mike Trout’s Next Contract
| Amount | Odds on How Much Mike Trout’s Next MLB Contract Will Be Worth |
|---|---|
| $401-$450 million | +200 |
| $300-$350 million | +210 |
| $500 million or more | +400 |
| $351-$400 million | +500 |
| $451-$99 million | +600 |
| Under $300 million | +600 |
*All odds taken March 9.
Trout isn’t exactly a pauper. The deal he’s currently playing under is worth $144.5 million.
How Long Will Trout Get?
Harper, 26, got a 13-year pact from the Phillies.
The. Best. Player. In. Baseball 💯@MikeTrout | @Angels pic.twitter.com/kem9wbMxHt
— Bally Sports West (@BallySportWest) March 5, 2019
Trout will be 29 when he comes up for free agency, so a 13-year deal might be a bit of a stretch, but not entirely out of the question.
Odds on Length of Trout’s Next Contract
| Length | Odds on How Long Mike Trout’s Next Contract Will Be |
|---|---|
| 10 years | +125 |
| Less than 10 years | +200 |
| 12 years | +400 |
| 15 years or more | +400 |
| 11 years | +800 |
| 13 years | +800 |
| 14 years | +800 |
Giancarlo Stanton also got a 13-year deal from the New York Yankees in 2018, so evidently, that’s the standard these days for a standout player.
Harper’s Bizarre Trout Lure
The Angels have asked MLB to consider tampering charges after Harper suggested he’d be lobbying Trout, who grew up a Phillies fan in nearby New Jersey, to join him in Philadelphia when his contract expires.
Bryce Harper: I’ll call Mike Trout to sign with the Phillies in 2020 https://t.co/Av5ddjatHm
— The Philadelphia Inquirer (@PhillyInquirer) March 5, 2019
Based on raw numbers, you have to acknowledge Trout to be a more valuable player than Harper. He’s a two-time MVP, a lifetime .307 hitter.
A mildly ridiculous exercise, but why not:
Bryce Harper bWAR from 2016-18:
7.5 ($330MM contract)
Mike Trout bWAR from 2016-18:
27.3
If Trout's next contract were to be valued at just the equivalent in dollars/WAR over the last 3 years, his contract would be
$1.2 billion.
— Manny Randhawa (@MannyOnMLB) March 1, 2019
Based on per-year earnings, Harper is only the ninth-highest paid player in baseball history at $25,384,615 per season. How do you lure Trout? Give him a shorter term but a higher annual stipend.
Mike Trout might be the first player ever to receive a blank check 💰⚾️ pic.twitter.com/Oeqwz7vElX
— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) March 5, 2019
Ten years, $450 million. That’s the bait that will land some MLB team Trout.
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
