MLB Best Bets Today – Picks & Predictions for April 17 Including Guardians vs Orioles

• The MLB schedule on Thursday includes 11 games from noon to 8 pm ET
• Diamondbacks vs Marlins starts the slate, which also includes the first meeting of the season between the Yankees and Rays
• See my MLB best bets, picks, and predictions on Thursday, April 17

The MLB schedule on Thursday, April 17, features 11 games with start times spread over five hours. The action commences with the Arizona Diamondbacks () visiting the Miami Marlins () at 12:05 pm ET and concludes with the Los Angeles Angels () at Texas Rangers () at 8:05 pm ET. The table below sets out my MLB best bets today.

MLB Best Bets Today

Today’s trio of picks come from games with three different start times: Mariners vs Reds is a matinee starting at 12:40 pm ET. First pitch in Guardians vs Orioles is scheduled for 6:35 pm ET. And Angels vs Rangers wraps up Thursday’s proceedings at 8:05 pm ET.

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MLB Best Bet #1: Reds 1H ML

I won’t bury the lede: this pick is, almost entirely, a fade of Seattle starting pitcher Emerson Hancock. The 25-year-old posted a 4.75 ERA and 1.34 WHIP as a rookie last year and his peripherals were even worse: 5.94 xERA and 5.69 FIP. His first start of 2025 was an unmitigated disaster. Hancock lasted just 0.2 innings against the Tigers, allowing six earned runs on seven hits and a walk with no Ks. Hancock doesn’t have overpowering stuff at the best of times and recorded a K-rate of just 14.7% in 60.2 IP in 2024. And he doesn’t keep the ball on the ground, either (34.7% GB rate last year).

Hancock vs Singer

Opposite Hancock will be the talented Brady Singer for the Reds, who has a solid 3.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three starts in 2025. Singer is coming off a solid 2024 in which he recorded a 3.71 ERA and 3.93 FIP in a career-high 179.2 innings. So far in 2025, he has a career-best 26.5% K-rate, thought the sample size is obviously tiny. He’ll be facing a Mariners lineup that’s been whisper quiet so far this year (3.88 RPG) and has a -6 run differential through 18 games, well below Cincinnati’s +13 number despite the teams having identical 9-9 win/loss records.

• SEA vs CIN pick: Reds first 5 innings moneyline (-145) at DraftKings

MLB Best Bet #2: Guardians vs Orioles 1H Under 2.5

My second MLB best bet on Thursday is a big swing on the Guardians and Orioles staying under 2.5 runs in the first five innings at a +300 price tag. The O’s are just 7-10 this season and it’s largely thanks to an underperforming offense. The O’s sit in the bottom half of the league in wOBA (.307, 16th) and OBP (.300, 31st), and are a middling 14th in wRC+ (105) after finishing third in that category last season.

On Thursday, Baltimore will have to contend with Tanner Bibee, the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up two seasons ago. Bibee’s ERA actually increased from 2.98 as a rookie to 3.47 as a sophomore but his xFIP went down (4.22 to 3.27), his K-rate went up (24.1 to 26.3%), and his walk rate went down (7.7 to 6.2%). He’s sporting a concerning 4.40 ERA and 1.47 WHIP so far this season but that’s all thanks to one awful start against the Angels (4.0 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 4 HR). In his other two starts, he held the Royals scoreless over 10.1 combined innings, once on the road and once at home.

The O’s trot out 35-year-old “rookie” Tomoyuki Sugano, who has a 3.86 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his first three MLB starts. The longtime NPB vet has given up one homer in each of his last two starts, but that’s an area where he excelled in Japan last year, limiting opponents to just 0.34 HR/9 in over 150 innings with a 50.9% GB rate. The Guardians get a lot of their run production from the longball. Cleveland sits 12th in the majors in homers (20) but 22nd in runs scored (3.88 RPG).

• CLE vs BAL pick: First 5 innings Under 2.5 (+300) at FanDuel

MLB Best Bet #3: Angels vs Rangers Over 9.5

My third and final MLB best bet on Thursday is the Angels and Rangers to go over 9.5 runs in a matchup between two young starters who are conceding runs at a rapid rate. Rookie Kumar Rocker (7.94 ERA, 1.94 WHIP) toes the rubber for the Rangers against second-year big leaguer Jack Kochanowicz (5.74 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) for the Angels.

Kochanowicz’s surface-level stats were decent as a rookie (3.94 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) but his peripherals portended a drop off (4.97 xERA, 4.62 FIP) and that’s exactly what we’ve seen so far in 2025. Through three starts, his ERA is nearing six and his FIP is almost as bad (5.50). He’s upped his K-rate slightly (9.4% to 13.6%) but it’s still well below average, and his walk rate is up from 3.8% to 9.1%.

Rocker has been getting lit up and, despite averaging nearly 96 mph on his four-seamer, has just a 10.9% K-rate through 11.1 innings over three starts. In his lone home start this season, he limited the Rays to just one run over 5.0 innings but he allowed six hits and only fanned one hitter. The Angels currently rank 12th in the majors in runs per game (4.47) and I expect Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, and company to make it another tough outing for the 24-year-old.