Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions, Props & Probable Pitchers (June 27)

• The Minnesota Twins (44-36) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (39-41) on Thursday afternoon to finish off a 3-game series between the interleague foes. The winner of this game wins the series.
• Minnesota sends rookie David Festa (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound for his MLB debut. Arizona will counter with Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 5.71 ERA).
• Check the section below for our favorite picks from Thursday’s MLB showcase.

The Twins and Diamondbacks meet up for the finale of a 3-game series on Thursday in Phoenix. The Diamondbacks won the first game of the series 5-4 before falling 8-3 on Wednesday night. Minnesota is in second place in the AL Central, 8 games behind the Cleveland Guardians. The Diamondbacks are in third place in the NL West, 11 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. Thursday afternoon’s game is set to start at 3:40 p.m. ET and can be seen on the MLB Network.

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks

• Diamondbacks -1.5 (+175)
• Jordan Montgomery over 17.5 outs (+115)

I don’t know much about Festa except he’s tall (6-foot-6) and has a mid-90s fastball. To me, that sounds like a guy who Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and company should be able to have success against. Festa hasn’t exactly been elite at the Triple-A level this year so far, posting a 3.77 ERA, a 3-2 record and allowing 9 home runs in 59.2 innings of work.

Thus, the odds for the Diamondbacks to win by 2+ runs seem a little off to me. I’d expect it to be closer to +130 or so, rather than +175 (which you can find on bet365). Yes, Jordan Montgomery’s ERA is a bit higher than we’ve come to expect from the talented lefty, but he’s put together a trio of good starts in his last 3 outings, recording wins in all of them.

I expect Montgomery to contain the Twins’ offense while Festa struggles in his MLB debut. That all adds up to the Diamondbacks winning by at least 2 runs, by my estimations. I’ll take the +175 odds with a smile on my face.

Montgomery went 6 innings in his last start, a 5-4 win against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are one of the best teams in baseball. He’s getting hot at the right time. I expect him to be a strong veteran presence for Arizona today as the Diamondbacks look to win the series against Minnesota and continue their climb back toward .500. I’ll take the +115 odds for him to finish 6 innings this afternoon.

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Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

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As mentioned above, I like the odds on the Diamondbacks to win by 2+ runs. On the moneyline, Arizona is -115, with Minnesota at -105. The run total is set at 8.5 runs, with the over sporting -120 odds and the under at +100. There’s value to be had if you think it’ll be a low-scoring game with the Diamondbacks winning.

Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers

I basically broke down all of my David Festa knowledge earlier in this article. He’s taking over for the injured Chris Paddack and then will likely be sent back down to the minors. He seems like a pitcher with the potential to be a back-of-the-rotation starter in a couple of years.

I want to focus more on Montgomery. Yes, his ERA is awful. And yes, his strikeout rate is the lowest we’ve seen it in years. He usually hovers a little bit above 20%, but is down to just under 16% this year.

Why the struggles?

Well, he didn’t get signed until the season was about to start, due to baseball’s ridiculous refusal to sign veteran free agents until the last second. So he didn’t get to go through spring training this year. He made his first start for Arizona on April 19. Though his first 2 starts were decent, the month of May was a disaster for him.

In 6 May starts, he worked 31.1 innings and allowed 25 earned runs while striking out only 21. You don’t need to be a baseball expert to know that’s not great.

June has been better. He’s pitched 18.2 innings and allowed 11 earned runs. But if you just look at his last 3 starts, he’s worked 16.2 innings, allowing only 5 earned runs. He’s trending in the right direction, and I expect that to continue this afternoon against Minnesota.

Look for the Arizona offense to give Montgomery an early cushion to work with. He’ll handle the rest on the way to a quality start.