New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions, Picks & Best Odds for Game 1

• Kodai Senga and the New York Mets face Jack Flaherty and the LA Dodgers in Game 1 of the 2024 NLCS on Sunday
• The Dodgers won the regular-season series 4-2, winning each of the last three meetings
• Below, see the Mets vs Dodgers predictions, picks, and best odds for Game 1 on Oct. 13

The New York Mets (89-73, 43-38 away) and Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, 52-29 home) start the 2024 National League Championship Series on Sunday Night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch for Game 1 is scheduled for 5:15 pm PT/8:15 pm ET. Making just his third appearance of the season, Kodai Senga goes for the Mets opposite Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers.

New York Mets vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game 1 Predictions

• Senga under 1.5 Ks (+210) at ESPN Bet
• Dodgers over 4.5 runs (+105) at FanDuel 

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB playoff betting record: 17-17 (+0.03 units)

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Flaherty has been fading in recent weeks. In his last four starts – including a 10-2 Game 2 setback against the Padres in the NLDS – he’s allowed at least three runs and six hits-plus-walks each time out. He has fairly good numbers against the Mets hitters (.231 average, .716 OPS) in 65 ABs, but I don’t trust him enough to bet the Dodgers at a short price. (The LAD moneyline ranges from -160 to -165.)

I do expect Los Angeles to put up runs, though, and I can’t imagine Mets starter Kodai Senga is going to last long. Senga made just one start in the regular season due to injury, throwing 72 pitchers against the Braves in July. He was on a very low pitch count when he made his second start of the year against the Phillies in the NLDS, throwing just 31 pitchers over 2.0 innings in a 6-2 Game 1 victory. While Senga managed three Ks against Philly, the Dodger hitters have only whiffed five times against him in 21 career ABs (while managing six hits and four walks).

The Dodger lineup, as a whole, doesn’t strikeout much (21.4%, 11th-best in MLB) and they’ve been on another level the last couple games. As a group, LA only struck out four times in their 8-0 Game 4 win over the Padres, and five times in their 2-0 Game 5 victory. That’s just a 12.9% K-rate in their last 70 plate appearances.

That, coupled with the likelihood that Senga is on another low (if slightly higher) pitch count is why I’m betting under 1.5 Ks for the Mets starter at a big price.

Best Mets vs Dodgers Odds for Game 1

Sunday’s MLB odds don’t show a ton of variety in the Mets vs Dodgers odds. The best moneyline price on a Dodger victory is currently -160, which is available at BetMGM, Caesars, and ESPN Bet. The best odds on a SU Mets win is +136 at FanDuel and DraftKings.

Most books have the run total set at 8.0 with the over slightly favored. FanDuel has the best odds on over 8.0 runs at -114. ESPN Bet, which refuses to post run totals without a hook, has the O/U listed at 8.5 with the under favored at -125.

On the runline, DraftKings has the best odds on LA -1.5 at +136, while ESPN Bet has the best price on NYM +1.5 at -155.

The Dodgers head into the LCS as +160 favorites in the World Series odds, slightly ahead of the Yankees (+173). The Mets are third-favorites at +408 with the Guardians (+477) bringing up the rear of the four remaining teams.

The MLB public betting splits show the vast majority of money on LAD to win Game 1. The Dodgers are getting 91% of moneyline handle on 86% of the bets as of 10:30 am ET. The public is more split when it comes to the total, with just 54% of money on the over and 46% on the under.