Marlins vs Rays Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers (July 26)

• The Marlins and Rays finish up a quick two-game set on Wednesday afternoon
• Tampa is a -155 favorite with Zach Eflin on the hill
• Below, we lay out the Marlins vs Rays odds and predictions

It’s the battle of Florida once again on Wednesday afternoon as the Miami Marlins (54-48, 23-28 away) visit the Tampa Bay Rays (62-42, 37-18 home) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. The first pitch for the series finale is scheduled for 12:10 PM ET.

We have an intriguing matchup on the mound here as reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara takes the ball, while the Rays counter with Zach Eflin. Tampa Bay has won eight in a row against Miami dating back to September of 2021.

Marlins vs Rays Odds

The Rays are the favorite with -155 moneyline odds for an implied win probability of 60.78%. The Fish come back at +135. The total in runs is set at just 7.5 which makes sense considering the arms on both sides, despite Alcantara’s struggles in 2023.

Odds as of July 25th at BetMGM. Get a BetMGM promo code to wager on Marlins vs Rays on Wednesday.

Miami vs Tampa Bay Probable Pitchers

After an absolutely breathtaking 2022 campaign, Alcantara has fallen back down to earth this year. In 20 starts, he owns a poor 3-9 record and 4.70 ERA. A far cry from last season. And while Alcantara has looked decent at times, the righty wasn’t at his best last time out against the Cardinals.

In a game where the Marlins badly needed Sandy Alcantara to give them a quality start, he is blitzed for 4 ER in the first.

This is unfamiliar inconsistency from him. It seems like each time he makes a good pitch, the next one misses badly. Can't leave a changeup there. pic.twitter.com/rSOCpKPPRv

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 19, 2023

Alcantara tossed six innings, allowing four earned runs on eight hits. On a more positive note, he did strike out seven and only issued two walks. Alcantara tends to pitch well against the Rays though, compiling a 3.68 ERA lifetime.

Alcantara vs Eflin Stats

Eflin is really having a nice season for the Rays. He’s gone 11-5 with a 3.37 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 19 outings. The strikeout numbers are solid with 113 of them in 112.1 innings but what’s even more impressive is the 16 walks. He rarely gives up free passes and consistently pounds the strike zone. You can’t beat that.

On July 21st, Eflin threw a gem against the AL East rival Orioles, going seven scoreless and allowing a mere two hits. He also sat down eight via the K. Due to his days with the Phillies, Eflin has faced the Marlins a lot. However, his ERA isn’t great against Miami, sitting at 4.97.

Marlins in Bad Shape

Although Miami does remain in the Wild Card race, they’re not doing themselves any favors lately, posting a 1-9 record in their last 10 games. Scoring runs has been a major problem all season too with only 4.1 per contest, despite ranking top five in the bigs in hits and team average. The Marlins can’t capitalize on their opportunities.

Skip Schumaker’s group was held to two hits and only one run in the opener Tuesday, with Tyler Glasnow carving them up. Not even Luis Arraez had a hit. That’s when you know it’s a bad day.

Rays Need to Get Back on Track

Tampa Bay just dropped three of the four to the O’s, which resulted in Baltimore moving into first place in the division. But, the Rays managed to get back in the win column Tuesday, which is crucial considering the Astros and Yankees are up next after this series concludes.

Here's a xeet(?) about a ball that went YEET pic.twitter.com/rKdboXq1nB

— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) July 26, 2023

Brandon Lowe led the way at the dish with a 3 for 4 day including a homer while Yandy Diaz smacked a huge two-run double. However, Diaz exited early with an apparent groin injury.  As previously mentioned, Glasnow shoved, tossing seven frames and surrendering one run on two hits.

Marlins vs Rays Prediction

Given Tampa’s utter dominance of Miami in recent years, I have to take the Rays. I expect Eflin to keep his team in the game as he always does. The bats will do some damage off Alcantara, too.

Pick: Rays moneyline (-155)