MLB Home Run Picks & Predictions for Dinger Tuesday (July 9)
- Another Dinger Tuesday is here and there are plenty of home run props to sort through
- There are three sportsbooks with home run bonuses available today
- See the 5 players I am betting to hit a home run today & how I’m using my home run bonuses below
It’s Tuesday again and that means we bet home runs, thanks to FanDuel’s “Dinger Tuesday,” DraftKings’ “HomerFest,” and Caesars’ “Tuesday Dingers” promos. I hit on Yordan Alvarez last week and racked up some good bonus bets on top of the win. Let’s see if I can hit more than one home run prop this week, though!
My Dinger Tuesday bonus at FanDuel is the same as it was last time, allowing me to bet as many games as I want. My Caesars offer only comes with one 25% boost to use on home run markets, where that had always been two. However, I don’t see as many games I like today as I did last week. Today’s slate has a handful of good pitchers (don’t give up many home runs at least), as well as some home run teams having to play in ballparks that aren’t very home run friendly. Thankfully, it doesn’t appear weather will play a factor in any game today.
But not to worry, I have still found a good handful of players I love to hit a home run today. See my home run picks below as well as how I am using my home run bonuses for Dinger Tuesday today!
1. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+430 at FanDuel)
Typically, Zack Wheeler is not a pitcher I would be targeting for Dinger Tuesday. His HR/9 rate is just 0.80, which is among the lowest of the 30 pitchers taking the mound today. Wheeler has also only allowed a home run in six of his 18 starts this season. However, he has not been as dominant against lefties as he has vs righties. Lefties are averaging .231 (versus .153 vs righties) against him and have hit seven home runs in 212 ABs (three home runs in 190 ABs for righties).
The Dodgers lineup he will face tonight has some big lefty bats!
Shohei Ohtani, one of those big lefty bats, has seen Zack Wheeler three times in his career and has walked twice and recorded a single in his only AB. Freddie Freeman, the second big lefty bat, is hitting .412 off Zack Wheeler in 51 career ABs. Six of those 21 hits have gone for extra bases, with two of them clearing the fence.
Admittedly, it was a bit of a toss-up for me in terms of which lefty bat I wanted to bet. Ohtani’s +220 odds were a little too short to swallow for me. I would understand if you wanted to take him here, but I am going with Freddie Freeman at +430.
Miguel Rojas, Teoscar Hernandez, and Jason Heyward (not likely to be in the lineup) have all hit two bombs off Wheeler in their respective careers as well, with each of them averaging .300 or better against the Phillies’ ace. So, it may not be just lefties clearing the fence for LA tonight.
On the other side, Bobby Miller saw the Phillies last year and pitched a great game, only allowing three hits over six innings of scoreless ball. But that was a different Bobby Miller on the mound. He only allowed 12 home runs in 124.1 IP all of last season. He has given up five HRs in just 25 IP this season, including one home run in each of his last five starts. The only concern here is how many ABs the Phillies will get against Miller and his 1.8 HR/9 rate. He has gone two innings or less in two of six starts and has only made it beyond five innings once. On the bright side, the Dodgers bullpen has given the seventh-most home runs in the Majors as well.
I also like the expected return of both Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who have accounted for 37 of Philadelphia’s 106 home runs this season – Schwarber sounds more certain than Harper, but fingers crossed we get both.
2. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+450 at FanDuel)
I still like this game for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, but I loved it when Shota Imanaga was set to start for the Cubs – I also had a whole blurb written up about his incredible start, but MLB bats catching up and the Cubs insisting on letting the rookie deal with his own messes. Maybe that’ll come back into play next week. Nevertheless, Jameson Taillon is in tough today having to deal with the Orioles, who have hit by far the most home runs in the MLB this season.
Six of the nine projected bats in Baltimore’s starting lineup today have seen Taillon before, and four of those six have taken him for a ride over the fence. Cedric Mullins hits .417 with two home runs in 12 ABs against the RHP. Anthony Santander has not hit for average vs Taillon (.200), but he also has two home runs in 15 previous ABs vs the Cubs starter.
While those numbers are certainly enticing, I have to go with Baltimore’s righty-killer, Gunnar Henderson. The 23-year-old has hit 22 of his 27 home runs against RHP and he is averaging .310 with a righty on the mound.
Gunnar Henderson is insanely good at baseball pic.twitter.com/qukGHdsqQr
— 𝙆am Brice (@kambrice1tv) July 8, 2024
Taillon has given up a home run in each of his last four starts but only has a HR/9 rate of 1.11. This Baltimore lineup is different, though.
Looking to the other matchups, the majority of the Cubs lineup saw Dean Kremer last year, when the right-hander went five innings and gave up two home runs – one to Mike Tauchman and one to Christopher Morel. Sadly, it doesn’t sound like Tauchman will be returning for this one, but Morel will be in the lineup. Dansby Swanson also had a nice day, going 1-for-2 against Kremer.
Chicago has not hit many home runs this season, but I’m hoping I can count on them for one against Kremer’s 1.64 HR/9 rate, in a pretty good ballpark for home runs.
3. Juan Soto, Yankees (+360 at FanDuel)
I was a little on the fence about using this game for Dinger Tuesday or just picking one player from the game using another home run bonus. Tropicana Field is one of the least friendly home run parks in the Majors, but I just couldn’t look away from the home run friendly matchups (Yankees bats & Carlos Rodon).
Ryan Pepiot hasn’t given up a ton of home runs this season – 11 over 75.2 IP – and he has not allowed a home run in any of his last three starts. Prior to that, though, he allowed three HRs to the Braves and two to the Orioles. Tampa Bay may be onto something with Pepiot, though, as he has only been allowed to face 18-19 batters in those last three starts. Thankfully, the Yankees are very much a home run team, ranking second in the category, and may not need too many ABs against Pepiot to start racking up home runs.
Juan Soto and Trent Grisham are the only Yankees who have seen Pepiot before, and Soto went 2-for-3 with one of those hits being a home run. Soto is hitting .289 against righties this season with 16 home runs. Then, of course, there is Aaron Judge, who is averaging .306 with 24 home runs against RHP. It would have been really nice to get Giancarlo Stanton back for this one, but that doesn’t seem likely.
Qualified players in the 90th percentile or better in hard-hit %, barrel % and chase %:
– Gunnar Henderson
– Aaron Judge
– Juan Soto pic.twitter.com/SiWPLpvOPp— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 9, 2024
But even if Pepiot does get the hook early, the Rays bullpen has given up the second-most home runs in the league.
On the other side, six of Tampa Bay’s nine probable players in their lineup today have seen Carlos Rodon in their respective careers. Amed Rosario has the most experience with 12 plate appearances. No other player has seen him more than nine times. Yet, four of the six have hit a home run off Rodon. Rosario’s came back in 2021 when he was a member of the Guardians and Rodon was pitching for the White Sox. The other three hit their bombs in one of the two games Tampa Bay saw Rodon and the Yankees last season. The left-hander only went 8.2 innings across those two starts, giving up six earned runs to the Rays.
The Yankees’ starter has continued giving up home runs at a great rate this season, as he sports a 1.64 HR/9 rate. Over his last three starts, he has watched seven balls leave the yard, and those games came against the Reds, Jays, and Braves. Tampa Bay is not a home run team, but they are comparable to the Jays and Reds, who each hit two off Rodon.
4. Nolan Arenado, Cardinals (+700 at DraftKings)
Nolan Arenado is hitting .533 with four home runs off Michael Wacha, who will take the mound for Kansas City today, in 15 career ABs. On top of that, Arenado’s bat is starting to heat up. He is hitting .310 over the last seven days, but only has one home run since June 6.
I’d say few players are more due for a home run than Arenado, who clubbed 26, 30, and 34 dingers over the last three seasons, respectively. The Cardinals’ 3B only has seven so far this season, but I think this familiar matchup snaps him out of the funk.
Wacha hasn’t been a home run pitcher this season, as his HR/9 rate is only 0.86. But that has not been the case when facing Arenado, as mentioned.
5. Josh Naylor, Guardians (+475 at Caesars)
The Guardians beat up Kenta Maeda so bad on May 7 that he only lasted two innings, giving up seven earned runs. He would only go on to face ten batters in that game before being yanked.
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It’s right-handed bats that are killing Maeda this season, averaging .313 off him and hitting home runs in nine of 131 ABs. Maeda’s HR/9 rate is a bloated 1.86 and he has allowed a home run in three of his last four starts. However, I’m going against the grain with a lefty, specifically Josh Naylor.
Cleveland’s 1B is hitting .249 with 16 home runs against RHP this season. Naylor has 14 ABs against Maeda, averaging .286 with one home run. I think Naylor has the power to clear the fence at Comerica Park, which hasn’t been too kind to lefties.
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
