Home Run Derby Odds, Picks, Predictions & Best Props to Bet for 2024
- The 2024 MLB Home Run Derby takes place at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, tonight at 7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET
- Two-time champion Pete Alonso is the favorite but his odds are much longer than last year, when he was eliminated in round one
- See the 2024 Home Run Derby odds, predictions, and best props to bet on Monday, July 15
The annual MLB Home Run Derby takes place on Monday night (7:00 pm CT/8:00 pm ET) at the Rangers’ Globe Life Field in Arlington.
With two-time champion Pete Alonso in a field that includes five newcomers, the Mets first baseman, who won the 2019 and 2021 editions, is once again at the top of the Home Run Derby odds.
Home Run Derby Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | +330 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | +425 |
| Bobby Witt Jr (Royals) | +425 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | +475 |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | +550 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | +950 |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | +1300 |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | +1600 |
Alonso is priced at +330 to become the second-ever three-time home run derby champion. He’s followed by the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna and the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr, both at +425. Emerging Orioles star Gunnar Henderson has the fourth-best odds at +475 while hometown hero Adolis Garcia is fifth at +550.
This year’s longshots are the Dodgers’ Teoscar Hernandez (+950), the Guardians’ Jose Ramirez (+1300), and the Phillies’ Alec Bohm.
Odds as of July 15 at DraftKings. Claim one of the DraftKings promos to bet on the 2024 Home Run Derby.
Changes to Home Run Derby Format in 2024
Unlike recent editions, the 2024 Home Run Derby is not a single-elimination bracket. Instead, the four hitters with the most homers after round one will advance to the semifinals. In the second round, the player with the most homers in the first round will be matched up against the player with the fourth-most, while number two faces number three.
In the first two rounds, batters gets 40 pitches maximum (or three minutes) to hit as many home runs as possible. In the final, the two participants will get 27 pitches (or two minutes).
Ties in the first round are broken by distance: the player who hit the longest home run in the round advances. In the semis and final, ties result in a 60-second swing-off.
Home Run Derby Experience & Results
| Player (Team) | Past HR Derbies | Best Result | Reg. Season HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | 4 | Winner (2019, 2021) | 19 |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | 1 | Round 1 (2023) | 17 |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | 1 | Round 1 (2022) | 23 |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | 0 | N/A | 11 |
| Bobby Witt Jr (Royals) | 0 | N/A | 16 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | 0 | N/A | 28 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | 0 | N/A | 26 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | 0 | N/A | 19 |
Alonso is the only player in the field who’s experienced any success at an MLB Home Run Derby. Neither Garcia nor Ramirez advanced past the first round in their previous appearances; under the old format, Ramirez lost 18-17 to eventual-champion Juan Soto in the first round in 2022; Ramirez’s score was the lowest of the first round. Garcia fell 24-17 to Randy Arozarena in the first round in 2023, only Mookie Betts (11 ) hit fewer homers that year.
The other five competitors are all Derby newcomers. Henderson has the most regular-season dingers among all the competitors at 28, followed by Ozuna with 26. The pair its third and fourth in the majors, trailing only Aaron Judge (34) and Shohei Ohtani (29).
2024 MLB Home Run Derby Picks & Predictions
At these prices, Alonso is an absolute steal. He entered last year as the +175 favorite before falling to Julio Rodriguez for the second straight time. It remains to be seen if the format change will impact the two-time champion, but his batting-practice bona fides are proven beyond a doubt. Even the years when Alonso didn’t win, he still put in respectable performances. He cranked out 21 in the first round last year but lost to record-setting Rodriguez, who hit an astonishing 41. The year prior, he lost in round two, again to Rodriguez, 31-23.
In other words, Julio Rodriguez is the only person who’s ever knocked Alonso out of a Derby, and he’s not in the field.
In addition to backing Alonzo, I’m also fading Jose Ramirez, whose over/under in round one is set at 19.5 home runs. Under the old format, which was more hitter-friendly, Ramirez only managed a disappointing 17 at Dodger Stadium. I don’t expect the Guardians star – or any player – to fare better under the new parameters.
MLB HR Derby Picks:
- Alonso to win (+330)
- Ramirez under 19.5 home runs in round one (-120)
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Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
