Game 1 Marlins vs Phillies Picks & Predictions
By Robert Duff in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Philadelphia Phillies are -166 home favorites over the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card series on Tuesday, October 3
- It’s the first postseason season series ever between these two NL East rivals
- See the Game 1 Marlins vs Phillies picks and predictions
The Philadelphia Phillies are again setting out on a journey in pursuit of a World Series berth and in the Miami Marlins, they’ll be facing a new stumbling block along that path.
Well, at least in terms of the postseason it’s new. The Phillies and Marlins are NL East rivals but until they take the diamond for Game 1 of their best-of-three NL Wild Card series, they’ve never clashed in the MLB postseason.
For Game 1, oddsmakers are setting the Phillies as -166 home favorites. However, Philadelphia is just 1-4 straight up in the past five home games against Miami.
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Team | Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | +1.5 (-155) | O 7.5 (-110) | +140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -1.5 (+130) | U 7.5 (-110) | -166 |
The two teams have split the past 20 games evenly, each winning 10 games straight up. First pitch at Citizens Bank Park is set for 8:08pm ET. ESPN will be carrying the broadcast.
Odds as of October 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings promo code to get a great bonus on Tuesday’s Marlins vs Phillies game. Bettors in KY can also check out DraftKings Sportsbook Kentucky.
In the MLB public betting trends, the Marlins won seven of 13 meetings with the Phillies this season. Five of the last seven games between the two teams have gone under. The winner of this best-of-three series will face the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS portion of the MLB playoff bracket.
Wheeler a Workhorse for Phillies
Getting the start in Tuesday’s MLB lineups, Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler was just 1-3 in the playoffs last season and took the loss in both of his World Series starts. Only one of his six starts came at home, though. Philadelphia beat San Diego 4-3 in Game 5 of the 2022 NLCS, although Wheeler didn’t figure in the decision.
Zack Wheeler, 96mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/7dLat1XDi1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 23, 2023
During the regular season, Wheeler was second on the club with 13 wins. The Phillies were 19-13 in his starts. He’s won his last four decisions and six of the past seven. Wheeler has worked a minimum of five innings in 19 of his last 20 starts. In 13 of his past 15 trips to the bump he’s gone at least six innings.
With his 212 strikeouts, Wheeler posted his best season in that department since leading the NL with 247 strikeouts in 2021. His strikeouts/walks ratio of 5.44 was a career best, while his walks per nine innings of 1.8 were a career low.
Luzardo vs Wheeler
| 10-9 | Record | 13-6 |
| 3.63 | ERA | 3.61 |
| 3.99 | xERA | 3.18 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 3.78 | SO/W | 5.44 |
There were personal bests across the board this season for Marlins left-hander Jesus Luzardo. His wins (10), games started (32), innings pitched (171.2), strikeouts (208), and strikeouts/walks ratio (3.78) were all career highs. And yet he finished the campaign just 10-9. His WHIP jumped from 1.04 to 1.22 and his ERA increased from 3.32 to 3.63.
Luzardo comes into the postseason with just two wins over his last 13 trips to the mound. He endured a three-start losing streak from Aug. 4-16. However, he’s allowed one earned run or fewer in four his past seven starts.
Not good numbers for Phillies stars life time against Marlins G1 starter Jesús Luzardo:
Turner – 0-8, 2K
Harper – 1-9, 5K
Bohm – 1-11, 4K
Realmuto – 1-13, 5K
Castellanos – 2-7, 4K
Schwarber – 2-9, 5K
pic.twitter.com/IuS7qTCmq7— 𝐃𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐨𝐜𝐡𝐞 (@RochesRWinners) October 2, 2023
The southpaw is 2-0 against the Phillies this season with a 3.65 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He got the verdict in an 8-5 decision July 9 at Citizens Bank Park. That day, Luzardo struck out nine and allowed two earned runs over 6.1 innings of work. Both Luzardo and Wheeler are listed with strikeout over/unders of 4.5 in Tuesday’s MLB player props, but Wheeler’s outs recorded (17.5) is considerably higher than Luzardo’s (14.5).
Phillies Are Home Field Dynamos in Postseason
Since moving into Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies have turned the place into a postseason fortress. The Phillies are 22-11 at home in the playoffs in their current stadium.
Among stadiums that have played host to at least 30 MLB playoff games, that .667 mark is tied for the best home winning percentage of any ballpark in baseball history.
Marlins vs Phillies Recent Results
| Date | Home-Away | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2023 | PHI 4 MIA 5 | MIA | MIA | Under |
| 09/09/2023 | PHI 8 MIA 4 | PHI | PHI | Over |
| 09/08/2023 | PHI 2 MIA 3 | MIA | MIA | Under |
| 08/03/2023 | MIA 2 PHI 4 | PHI | PHI | Under |
| 08/02/2023 | MIA 9 PHI 8 | MIA | PHI | Over |
| 08/01/2023 | MIA 1 PHI 3 | PHI | PHI | Under |
| 07/31/2023 | MIA 2 PHI 4 | PHI | PHI | Under |
| 07/09/2023 | MIA 7 PHI 3 | MIA | MIA | Over |
| 07/08/2023 | MIA 5 PHI 3 | MIA | MIA | Over |
| 07/07/2023 | MIA 3 PHI 4 | PHI | PHI | Push |
The Marlins and Phillies both won eight more games at home this season than on the road, which is the highest differential of any MLB playoff teams. That doesn’t bode well for the Marlins, who must play all three games in this series at Philadelphia.
Marlins vs Phillies Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-166)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
