Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits for White Sox vs Yankees

• The New York Yankees are -140 home favorites in the opener of their series vs the Chicago White Sox
• Davis Martin (9-2), tied for the MLB lead in wins, squares off with veteran Gerritt Cole
• Read below for the my White Sox vs Yankees prediction, picks updated odds and betting splits

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It’s a tasty battle of first-place teams, as the AL East-leading New York Yankees (43-27) open a 3-game set at home against the Chicago White Sox (38-32), who sit tied atop the AL Central.

Despite Chicago starting wins leader Davis Martin, the MLB odds still side with the home team, who will start their own elite starter in veteran Gerritt Cole.

First pitch goes tonight at 7:05pm ET from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

White Sox vs Yankees Prediction

• Best Bet: Yankees ML (-140 on Caesars)

The Bronx Bombers live up to their moniker, boasting an elite .801 home OPS (2nd) and an 89.3 mph average exit velocity (4th). With aggressive base-running generating a league-best 1.32 stolen bases per contest, it is no surprise they score 5.39 runs per game at home.

Chicago manufactures respectable road production, tallying 4.65 runs per game. However, their 87.4 mph average exit velocity ranks 26th among road teams, indicating they lack the consistent hard-hit profile necessary for a slugfest.

The most glaring mismatch is run prevention. Chicago ranks 20th with a 4.29 team ERA, while New York sports a stifling 3.32 mark (2nd).

Both MLB probable pitchers enter in excellent form.

Davis Martin has been a revelation, boasting a pristine 9-2 record and a stellar 2.39 FIP that suggests his 2.41 ERA is sustainable. Over his last 60.1 innings, he has struck out 9.55 batters per nine innings while walking just 1.94.

Cole has been equally stingy in limited action, yielding a 2.46 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .210 average. While his 4.20 FIP indicates he may have benefited from good fortune, his command remains elite.

Cole is averaging 5.50 innings per start, meaning manager Aaron Boone will lean heavily on his highly-rated bullpen.

New York boasts the superior overall roster and holds a massive advantage in the late innings. Their bullpen carries a reliable 3.375 ERA into tonight’s contest, a sharp contrast to Chicago’s vulnerable relief corps and its 4.230 ERA.

The home lineup also provides more consistent offensive thump, generating a .763 team OPS compared to the visitors’ .737 mark. I am backing the home team to take care of business.

CHI White Sox vs NY Yankees Expert Picks

Davis Martin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110 at FanDuel)
Situational trends heavily favor fading the Chicago right-hander’s punch-out totals. Martin has failed to exceed 5.5 strikeouts in 11 of his last 13 games, an 85% success rate for the under. On the road, he has gone under 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 starts, covering 91% of the time.

Andrew Benintendi Over 0.5 Hits (-175 at FanDuel)
Benintendi has exceeded 0.5 hits in three straight games specifically against New York. This 100% cover rate makes recording a base hit a highly favorable addition to my betting card.

White Sox vs Yankees Odds & Betting Splits

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on White Sox vs Yankees or any other MLB game.

The Yankees enter tonight as solid -140 moneyline favorites at bet365, reflecting their superior record and home-field advantage. Bettors backing Chicago will find them at +122 at FanDuel.

Taking the Yanks to win by at least two runs pays out at a nice +155, while getting two runs for the ChiSox will lose some juice, paying out at -178 at Caesars.

The game total is set at a modest 7.5 runs, indicative of the elite starting pitching. Both the spread and total lines have remained completely static since opening, with the Under paying out at -103 odds at DraftKings, and the Over at -115 at bet365.

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, and the public loves the Yankees Monday. On the moneyline, New York is getting 85% of the bets and 80% of the money. Looking at the spread, the Yankees at -1.5 is earning 78% of the bets and 84% of the money.

The consensus is this one will cash the Over, with 89% of bets and 88% of the money expecting White Sox vs Yankees to surpass 7.5 runs.