Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians: Preview & Prediction
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Published:
Meeting for the first time since the 2016 World Series, the Cubs and Indians will play the second of their two-game set tonight (7:00 PM ET, April 25) at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Chicago hammered the Tribe in game one (10-3) and will send Opening Day starter Jon Lester to the hill looking to secure the series win.
Cleveland will counter with righty Trevor Bauer, who’s off to the best start of his six-year career.
Below, get the opening moneyline, runline and over/under, plus the vital statistics and betting trends, weather forecast, and score prediction.
Opening Odds
| MONEYLINE | RUNLINE | O/U RUNS |
|---|---|---|
| CUBS (+116) | CUBS +1.5 (-190) | OVER 8.0 (+105) |
| INDIANS (-126) | INDIANS -1.5 (+165) | UNDER 8.0 (-125) |
The Cubs have struggled to find any consistency so far this year — they have yet to have a winning streak or losing streak of more than two games — but the lineup has absolutely mashed when Lester’s been on the bump, winning all four of his starts while averaging 9.25 runs per game.
Lester, himself, has been up and down. Encouragingly, his last start was his best of the season, going six strong against rival St. Louis and giving up just two hits and no earned runs in an 8-5 Cubbies win.
Lester’s last start was his best of the season, going six strong against rival St. Louis and giving up just two hits and no earned runs.
After a sluggish start in frigid early-April temperatures, the Tribe are heating up. Despite getting battered by the Cubs yesterday, they have won nine of their last 13 games and taken over top spot in the languid AL Central.
Bauer has been solid, at minimum, in each of his four starts this season, but unlike his counterpart, has not received much run support. He wound up on the losing end of a 1-0 decision against KC on April 7, and also fell 3-1 to Baltimore last time out, despite scattering just five hits and three runs over seven innings.
His current ERA of 2.67 is a full 1.63 runs lower than his career number.
Team Stats
| CUBS | STATISTIC | INDIANS |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 (8-5 Away) | RECORD | 12-9 (6-3 Home) |
| +31 | RUN DIFFERENTIAL | +8 |
| LHP Jon Lester: 2-0, 3.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP | PROBABLE STARTER | RHP Trevor Bauer: 1-2, 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP |
| .200 BA, .533 OPS (in 15 at-bats) | LINEUP VS OPPONENT STARTER | .286 BA, .802 OPS (in 140 at-bats) |
| 2.76 ERA (6th in MLB) | BULLPEN ERA | 3.09 ERA (7th in MLB) |
| .793 (4th in MLB) | TEAM OPS | .652 (27th in MLB) |
| NA | 2017 HEAD-TO-HEAD | NA |
Betting Results & Trends
| CUBS | TREND | INDIANS |
|---|---|---|
| Won 2 | WIN/LOSS STREAK | Lost 1 |
| 6-4 | LAST 10 | 6-4 |
| 11-9 | RUNLINE RECORD | 8-13 |
| 10-9-1 | OVER/UNDER SPLIT | 7-14 |
| Over 2 | OVER/UNDER STREAK | Over 1 |
As mentioned, game one of this mini two-gamer was a 10-3 laugher in favor of Chicago. Kyle Schwarber belted two solo bombs and Javier Baez continued his recent hot streak with two more hits and another RBI.
Kris Bryant, Chicago’s biggest bat, was given another day of rest after taking a fastball to the head last week. According to the team, he is doing “fine,” so expect him to be back in the lineup today. If not, Tommy La Stella will start in his place.
Weather Forecast at Opening Pitch
| TEMPERATURE | 45° |
| HUMIDITY | 82% |
| WIND SPEED | NW 13 MPH (in from left field) |
| P.O.P. | 4% |
Score Prediction
| CUBS | 5 |
| INDIANS | 4 |
Bauer has never been dominant and his splits from the last three seasons show a pitcher that’s had markedly more success on the road (3.82 ERA, 21 HR allowed in 45 GP) than at home (4.73 ERA, 47 HR allowed in 53 GP). Meanwhile, Lester is showing signs that he’s rounding into mid-season form.
Bauer has [had] … markedly more success on the road … than at home.
Lester’s numbers against this Cleveland lineup are definitely concerning (.286 BA, .802 OPS in 140 at-bats). But a lot of that damage was done by light-hitting Rajai Davis (.304 BA, .938 OPS in 46 at bats), who is batting .176 on the season. The rest of the lineup has barely faced Lester, apart from Edwin Encarnacion, whom Lester has limited to a .214 BA in 42 at-bats.
If Bryant is back in the mix for Chicago, there’s value on the Cubs at +116.
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
