Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds, Predictions & Player Props for Lodolo vs Skenes (Aug 22)

• Paul Skenes is back on the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates against Nick Lodolo for the Cincinnati Reds
• Skenes is mired in the roughest stretch of his young career
• Below, see the Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates odds, predictions, and player-prop picks for Aug. 22

An ugly 10-19 record since the All-Star break has dropped the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-67, 29-32 home) to the bottom of the NL Central and eight games out of the final NL Wild Card. On Thursday, the Bucs turn to rookie ace Paul Skenes as they start a four-game series with Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds (62-65, 31-31 away) at PNC Park at 6:40 pm ET.

Skenes has showed signs of fatigue over his last few starts and, as a result, Pittsburgh is only a modest -140 favorites in Thursday’s Reds vs Pirates odds.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds

The Reds come back as +120 road underdogs in Thursday’s MLB odds and -180 on the runline to keep the score within a run. The over/under is sitting at 7.5 with the under favored at -120.

Both teams have trended to the under this season: Cincinnati is currently 59-62-6 O/U while Pittsburgh is 59-63-4.

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Nick Lodolo vs Paul Skenes

Skenes has allowed multiple runs in three straight starts. Prior to this mini-skid, he had only allowed multiple runs in back-to-back starts one time in his first 14 career starts. His ERA has “ballooned” from 1.90 to 2.30 over his last three starts.

Control has been a bigger issue; Skenes has issued eight walks in his last 17.1 innings, which equals 4.15 walks per nine innings, significantly higher than his average of 2.2 BB/9.

His last start was a step back in the right direction, though. Skenes went 6.0 innings in a 5-3 win over the Mariners, allowing two runs on three hits and four walks with six strikeouts.

His only other career start against the Reds was a gem, tossing six innings of six-hit, one-run ball with seven Ks in a 4-1 Pittsburgh victory on June 17.

Cincinnati starter Lodolo has been trending in the wrong direction since the All-Star break. The 6’6 lefty was rocking a solid 3.30 ERA at the break, which was gone up over a full run to 4.55 in his last seven starts.

The third-year starter was hammered for eight runs on eight hits and two walks over just 2.1 innings by the Royals last time out. That was the second time in Lodolo’s last four starts that he surrendered eight earned runs. He hadn’t previously allowed more than four this season.

The good news for Lodolo is that he’s had his share of success against the Bucs. Back on June 18, he limited Pittsburgh to just one run on four hits over 7.0 innings with eight strikeouts in a 2-1 Reds victory.

In his only start against Pittsburgh last year, he allowed two runs on seven hits and two walks over 5.0 innings with another nine Ks in a 6-2 Cincinnati victory.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I am not too worried about Skenes fading. He has only pitched 98.0 innings this season, and his fastball velocity is still high (98.8 MPH average). Cincinnati’s lineup is well below average in wRC+ (94, 24th in MLB), and Skenes has already recorded one quality start against the Reds.

The Reds are also one of the worst strikeout teams in the league; their 24.6% K-rate is the sixth-highest among the 30 teams in the league, which obviously plays to Skenes’ strengths.

I’m not going to go crazy fading Lodolo. Yes, he’s had a couple rough outings lately, but he’s a talented pitcher whose peripherals suggest his 4.55 ERA is partly a product of bad luck. Instead, I’m going to back an ambitious under along with Skenes to go over his strikeout number.

CIN vs PIT picks:

• First 5 innings under 2.5 runs (+180) at DraftKings
• Skenes over 7.5 Ks (-113) at FanDuel