Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals Picks, Predictions & Probable Pitchers (July 12)

• The St. Louis Cardinals (48-44, 24-20 Home) host the red-hot Chicago Cubs (45-49, 20-28 Away) for the first game of a 4-game series Friday evening at 8:15 p.m.
• The Cubs are fresh off one of the more shocking upsets this season. Chicago not only swept the Baltimore Orioles, but dominated throughout with a 9-2 win, a 4-0 win and an 8-0 win at Camden Yards.
• See the probable pitchers, odds and a prediction for Friday’s game below.

Major League Baseball needs to seriously ponder what just happened in Baltimore, Maryland.

The Chicago Cubs not only look like they’ve turned a corner, they look dangerous following a 3-game sweep of the previously AL-leading Baltimore Orioles. The Cubs made one of the best teams in baseball look like a Division II program in their recent series, outscoring Baltimore 21-2 across 3 games. Again, they did all this at Camden Yards.

Their reward? One of the better teams in the National League, which has lost 2 straight but holds a 6-4 record across its past 10 games. The Cardinals aren’t particularly excellent in one specific area, but they do everything well and don’t have a glaring area of weakness.

Keep scrolling for a look at the odds, probable pitchers and a prediction for Friday’s Game 1.

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

• CHI vs. STL pick: Cardinals ML (-200), O 8(-115)

Folks, I’d love to ride with the hot hand here, but the pitching matchup is just too tough to give Chicago the benefit of the doubt. I’ll say this: If Chicago can win their 4th straight road game against a playoff team with 7.53 ERA Kyle Hendricks starting on the mound, I’ll officially declare them back.

At the same time, I’ll take the over in a heartbeat here. Hendricks could give up a few to start off, and the Cubs’ red-hot bats should bet able to get some revenge on Gray who took Chicago’s lineup to church last time around with just 1 hit allowed through 5 innings of work.

Cubs +1.5 is a tempting move as well in this spot, as I believe this will be high scoring and relatively close.

Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds

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The Cardinals are the clear favorite to spoil the Cubs’ parade tonight in St. Louis. The Cardinals sit at -200 ML and are given +110 odds to win by  2 or more runs. Alternatively, Chicago is given -130 odds to keep the game within a run and sits at +165 on the moneyline.

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The over/under for this matchup sits at 8, which I think is very low for this matchup for reasons listed above. However, only 1 of 5 games played in this series thus far has eclipsed this total.

Cardinals vs. Cubs Pitching Matchup

Kyle Hendricks vs Sonny Gray

This is a tough one for the Cubs.

Kyle Hendricks is objectively a Chicago Cubs legend. He aided the Cubs on their way to the 2016 World Series title and was 3rd in Cy Young Voting that season with an incredible 2.13 ERA. But 2016 Kyle Hendricks differs massively from 2024 Kyle Hendricks.

The RHP is in the middle of what is by far his worst season of his career. He has a 7.53 ERA and a dreadful 1-7 record through just 63.1 innings pitched. He’s allowed 11 earned runs across his last 12 innings of work and is coming off a back injury he suffered last Saturday against the Angels.

While it’s fair to say Hendricks has improved since the start of the season (ERA hovered around 12 in early May), he would need a monster rebound Friday evening to keep Chicago’s hot streak alive.

Sonny Gray is on the mound on the other side of things, and he’s already torched the Cubs once this season. He allowed just 1 hit through 5 innings in late May and struck out 8. I doubt tonight looks like that, but he’s shown he can do it before.

Through his career Gray has owned this Cubs lineup, too. Chicago is hitting just .233 against Gray, with only Ian Happ faring well at .462 across 13 at-bats.

Gray is 18th in the Majors in strikeouts (118) and boasts a solid 3.30 ERA, which ranks 26th.