Brewers Favored to Win NL Central for Second Straight Year After First Month of Play

• The Milwaukee Brewers are favored to win the NL Central Division title
• Three times in the last five years the division has seen a repeat winner
• The Brewers haven’t won back-to-back division titles since 1981-82

The National League Central Division belonged to the Milwaukee Brewers last season. As of today, the odds suggest that it will again in 2019.

We understand walking @ChristianYelich, but Ryan Braun reminds us that even the best-laid plans often go awry. #ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/1uIEHnRs9y

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 21, 2019

Books give the Brewers a slight edge over the St. Louis Cardinals in the latest NL Central odds.

2019 National League Central Odds

*Odds taken on 04/23/19

The Brewers are currently third with a 13-11 record. Last season on this date, Milwaukee was 14-9 and atop the NL Central.

An Early Test

The Bewers certainly broke from the gate impressively. They started the season 7-1, taking three of four from division rival St. Louis to open the campaign. As recently as April 18th, the Brew Crew was 12-8 and in first place.

Milwaukee is currently in the midst of a stretch of 14 consecutive games against the Cardinals, the second betting choice to win the NL Central, and the two-time defending NLCS champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers beat the Brewers in a seven-game NCLS last fall.

The Milwaukee Brewers stretch of games for the next month is no easier than the previous month.

Going to have to start beating some good teams to be where we want them to be. pic.twitter.com/HvWJpaHUor

— Pitchers⚾️ & Pitchers🍺 (@BrewersOfMKE) April 23, 2019

So far, the Brewers are failing this exam. Milwaukee is 5-6, dropping five of the last six games. Just like last year’s NLCS, they went 3-4 against the Dodgers. The Brewers are 2-2 against the Cardinals, including a 13-5 drubbing on Monday.

The Brewers have surrendered at least five runs in four of their last five losses.

History Repeating Itself?

The last time the Brewers came into the season as reigning NL Central champs was in 2012. Ryan Braun was also the reigning MVP of the NL, just as Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich is this season.

.@ChristianYelich had a pretty good month last week!

He is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, and it isn't even close. #ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/g2HkbuHPGI

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) April 22, 2019

Yelich is bringing the thunder so far. He leads the majors in home runs (13) and RBI (31). Yelich is averaging a big league-best one home run every 6.8 at-bats. His Win Probability Added (WPA) of 2.0 is no. 1 in the Major Leagues.

Braun also followed his MVP season with another monster campaign. In 2012, he led the majors in home runs (41), runs (108), total bases (356) and OPS (.957). But the Brewers finished fourth in the NL Central, 14 games out.

Central Heating Up

From top to bottom, the NL Central is a tight affair. Only the 8-13 Cincinnati Reds own a losing record. The other four teams are all within two games of first place.

👀👀👀

Cards'/Cubs' Run Differential compared to the rest of the NL Central… pic.twitter.com/0TdbMDn3V5

— Ryan Reynolds (@ryanreynolds86) April 22, 2019

Since 2013, all five NL Central teams have appeared in the playoffs. The division produced both wildcards in 2013 and 2015. The Chicago Cubs won back-to-back titles in 2016-17, following three straight by the Cardinals from 2013-15.

Since 2013, all five NL Central teams have appeared in the playoffs.

In their history, the Brewers wore back-to-back crowns just once – in 1981-82, when they resided in the American League East. And that 1981 title was the second half of a split-season conducted due to a strike.

NL Central projected* wins based on games through 2019-04-22

STL – 100.60@Cubs – 92.81
PIT – 83.99
CIN – 82.53
MIL – 76.40

*Pythagorean expectation pic.twitter.com/ZrAH2iIfo9

— Dr. Dux Delendum Est 💉💉 + 💉 + 💉 (@Very_Stable_G) April 23, 2019

The Cardinals were a different team after Mike Shildt took over as  manager last season, and we see that continuing. St. Louis is our NL Central pick.

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (+210)