Braves vs Diamondbacks Expert Picks, Odds & Probable Pitchers on July 11

• The Atlanta Braves (51-40) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (46-47) on Thursday night in Phoenix looking to win 3 of 4 against their NL West opponent.
• Max Fried (7-4, 3.18 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta, while Arizona will counter with Brandon Pfaadt (3-6, 4.19 ERA).
• Keep reading to get our top picks for Thursday night’s National League action.

The Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks finish off their 4-game series tonight at Chase Field. The Braves won the first 2 games of the series before the Diamondbacks fought back for a 7-5 win on Wednesday night. Thursday’s series finale is scheduled to start at 9:40 p.m. ET and can be seen on MLB.tv and regional broadcast networks.

Braves vs Diamondbacks Picks

• Over 8.0 runs (-105)
• Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases (+100)

These 2 teams have provided plenty of offense this week, combining for 9, 8 and 12 total runs in the first 3 games, respectively. The 8-run game, which was the lowest of the series, featured All-Star Chris Sale on the mound for the Braves and ace Zac Gallen on the hill for the DBacks. Even with those 2 elite pitchers throwing their best stuff, the offenses combined for 8 runs.

Brandon Pfaadt and Max Fried might be solid hurlers in their own right, but they’re not Sale and Gallen. The ball is flying at Chase Field this summer, and I expect that to continue tonight. I like these teams to combine for 9+ runs once again. I’ll be taking over 8.0 runs for -105 odds at bet365.

Current Braves hitters don’t have a ton of experience against Pfaadt, but there is one player who stands out — All-Star slugger and Home Run Derby participant Marcell Ozuna. It’s a small sample size, yes, but the Big Bear is 2-for-3 against Pfaadt with a double, a home run and 4 RBI. That’s about as good as it gets.

I’ll take Ozuna to have another big night against Pfaadt on Thursday. His odds to post 2+ total bases are +100 on bet365. That’s pretty good value.

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Braves vs Diamondbacks Odds

Odds via bet365 as of Thursday, July 11. Use bet365 promo code SBDXLM when you sign up now to receive a choice of welcome bonuses — a first-bet safety net of up to $1,000 or $150 in bonus bets when you place an initial $5+ wager.

The Braves are slight favorites in this matchup, sporting -120 moneyline odds. If you think Atlanta can score a convincing win by 2 or more runs, you’ll find +135 odds on bet365. The Diamondbacks are +100 on the moneyline and -160 to keep the score within a run. The run total is set at over/under 8.0 runs. As discussed earlier, I’m going with the over at -105 odds. If you want to fade me, the under currently sports -115 odds.

Braves vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers

Fried has been the better pitcher so far this year, with an ERA just over a run better than Pfaadt’s. The difference has been primarily in the number of home runs they’ve allowed. Fried has limited opponents to just 8 homers in 102 innings of work, while Pfaadt has allowed 14 dingers in 107.1 innings of work.

Fried had a rough outing his last time out on July 5, giving up 2 home runs and allowing 5 runs against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are the best team in baseball as things stand on July 11, though. The Diamondbacks are a game under .500.

Pfaadt was sharp his last time out, striking out 6 and allowing only 1 run against the San Diego Padres in a game the Diamondbacks won 7-5 in extra innings. However, Pfaadt only lasted 4.1 innings in that outing. He’ll need to be better on Thursday night if he wants to factor into the decision.

These guys have similar strikeout rates — good, but not elite. Look for plenty of balls to be put into play tonight. And with the way the ball has been traveling in Phoenix, that could lead to plenty of runs being scored.