Braves vs Blue Jays Odds & Picks for Strider vs Bassitt (April 16)

• Spencer Strider and the Atlanta Braves face Chris Bassitt and the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday
• Strider is making his first start since April 5, 2024, when he suffered a serious elbow injury
• See the Braves vs Blue Jays odds and picks for Strider vs Bassitt

The rubber-match between the Atlanta Braves (5-12, 2-10 away, 8-7-2 O/U) and Toronto Blue Jays (10-8, 6-3 home, 7-10-1 O/U) on Wednesday afternoon (1:07 pm ET) isn’t just another game for the Bravos. Ace Spencer Strider is making his return after a calendar year off due to injury. The Jays counter with Chris Bassitt, who’s having an excellent start to the season.

Wednesday’s MLB odds given Strider and the Braves a slight edge in the finale of this three-game set at the Rogers Center in Toronto.

Braves vs Blue Jays Odds

On the moneyline, Atlanta is a -135 road favorite, giving the Braves a 57.45% implied win probability. The Blue Jays come back at +116 on the moneyline (46.30% implied win probability) and -144 to keep the score within a run. The game total is sitting at just 7.5 with plus-money odds on the over (+102).

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Atlanta took the first game of the series 8-4, which was just their second road victory of the season. Toronto answered back with a 6-3 victory on Tuesday behind a five-run 5th inning that included a pair of two-run homers from Alan Roden and Anthony Santander.

Strider vs Bassitt Stats

*Strider’s stats from 2023 season.

Strider had emerged as one of the top pitchers in the league before his 2024 season-ending injury. Indeed, he started 2024 as the outright favorite in the National League Cy Young odds.

Strider made two preseason starts in the Grapefruit League. In the first, he went 2.2 perfect innings against the White Sox with six Ks. In the second, he allowed three runs on two hits and a walk over just 1.1 innings against the Orioles.

Strider doesn’t have a huge history against the Blue Jays hitters, but what littler there is favors the pitcher. In 14 total ABs, he’s held Toronto batters to a .214 average and .571 OPS with no home runs and two doubles (Vlad Guerrero Jr, Anthony Santander).

Bassitt has been brilliant for the Jays through his first three starts of 2025. He’s gone at least 5.2 innings in all three (18.1 total) and allowed just two runs on 17 hits and three walks (1.09 WHIP) with 21 strikeouts. His current 28.8% K-rate doesn’t appear sustainable for the 36-year-old, though; it’s 3.8% higher than any other season in his career and neither his velocity or spin rate have increased.

The veteran Bassitt, a former Met, has a much larger history against the Atlanta hitters, and it’s fairly middling. In 83 total ABs, they are hitting .253 with a .774 OPS. Bryan De La Cruz, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley have each taken Bassitt yard once.

Braves vs Blue Jays Picks & Prediciton

• Toronto moneyline (+116)
• Over 7.5 runs (+102)

I love the Blue Jays as a plus-money home underdog on Wednesday afternoon. I have very few negative things to say about Strider as a whole, but this is his first major league start in over a year, and he was spotty in spring training. His good start was against the god-awful White Sox, and he was roughed up by the O’s.

Even if he’s pitching well, you can’t expect manager Brian Snitker to let him go too deep. They have to be cautious with the man who should be the centerpiece of their rotation for the next decade. Atlanta’s bullpen has been struggling this year and is a big part of the reason the Braves are seven games under .500 and 2-10 on the road, posting a 4.24 ERA (21st in MLB) and 4.47 FIP (25th) so far.

I’m not expecting Bassitt to be perfect. He’s been outperforming his peripherals and the Braves still have a solid lineup (though it’s certainly taken a dip from the league-leading force it was in 2023). So I’m also targeting the over on 7.5 runs at plus-money. Toronto has gone over 7.5 in four straight games while Atlanta has gone over 7.5 in five in a row.