These Are the Best Home Run Props to Bet for Dinger Tuesday (June 25)
- It’s Dinger Tuesday again and that means it is time to bet home run props
- Three different sportsbooks have home run bonuses available to all users today
- See below for my picks on who will hit a home run today and how to use your five home run bonuses
Another Dinger Tuesday is upon us and I woke up ready to bet some home runs! We have three sportsbooks offering us home run bonuses today, and two of those sportsbooks provide two bonuses each. This means I needed to find the five best home run props to bet today.
In looking at the MLB schedule today, we once again have all 30 teams in action but also see some pretty good pitchers on the mound. That said, last week provided some of the best pitchers for giving up home runs and I went cold. (Thankfully, I was given a good chunk of my money back because I at least picked games with home runs hit.) We were also bit by weather concerns last week but appear to be in the clear for today.
So, without further adieu, here is how I will be using my five home run bonuses for today:
Best Home Run Picks for Today
The five home run bonuses I am working with are: (1) FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, which allows us to bet up to two players to hit a home run and we will get a bonus bet back based on how many home runs are hit in those players’ respective games; (2) Caesars’ two 25% home run profit boosts; and (3) DraftKings’ new HomerFest, which allows us to bet any player to hit a home run and we will receive a bonus bet based off the total number of home runs hit in every game today.
I’ll start below with my two picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, since they do require a little more research than just player/batter matchup.
1. Jose Altuve, Astros (+420 at FanDuel)
This game sees two pitchers that are pretty good at giving up home runs. We benefited from Austin Gomber and his 1.66 HR/9 rate last week, when he gave up two home runs to the Dodgers for us (unfortunately, neither to Freddie Freeman), and he sees the Astros tonight, who have hit the fourth-most home runs in the Majors this season – although, Kyle Tucker has hit 19 of those and he will not be in the lineup tonight.
Even without Tucker in the lineup, Houston still has three more players who have hit at least nine HRs this season who we do expect to see tonight. One of those three players is Jose Altuve, who has 12 home runs this season and just watched one sail over the fence in his last game on Sunday against the Orioles.
Houston saw Gomber back on April 28 in Mexico City, and hit three home runs off him in seven innings pitched. Though, one of those home runs was hit by Kyle Tucker, who won’t be playing tonight, Altuve did account for one of the other two. There are also three other Astros hitters who have hit a bomb off Gomber in their career. Looking to the eight projected batters in the lineup tonight for Houston who have seen Gomber before, four of them are hitting .300 or better against the left-hander.
With the nature of this home run bonus, we also have to look at the other side too. Hunter Brown has a 1.46 HR/9 rate and has given up home runs to both Ryan McMahon, who is swinging a red-hot bat right now and was a very nearly the pick here, and Ezequiel Tovar in just five combined ABs. Add in the fact that Minute Maid Park sees its fair share of home runs, and I suspect we’ll at least be breaking even in this one.
2. Anthony Santander, Orioles (+390 at FanDuel)
Admittedly, there are four games I was torn on when it came to picking my two bets at FanDuel: Guardians vs Orioles, Braves vs Cardinals, Rockies vs Astros (the pick above this), and Dodgers vs White Sox. So, I would understand you opting to go with either of the other two, but you’ll find them below anyways.
Ultimately, I couldn’t turn my back on a matchup that sees the top home run hitting team (Orioles) taking on the ninth-best home run hitting team (Guardians), especially when you consider the pitchers on the mound. Logan Allen has a 1.8 HR/9 rate this season and has allowed six home runs in his last five starts. What’s scary for Allen is that he hasn’t even faced that many home run hitting teams this season, and he’s still giving up dingers to the likes of the Marlins and Tigers.
Anthony Santander over his last 6 games:
.320 AVG
5 HR
11 RBI
7 Runspic.twitter.com/tqHUB9MqZ6— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) June 21, 2024
Tonight, Allen sees a lineup that crushes balls. One of those ball-crushers is named Anthony Santander, and he has been crushing lately. Santander has three home runs in his last 29 at-bats, 11 home runs this month, and has a hit in two of three ABs against Allen in his career.
Quickly looking to the other side, the Guardians will tee off on Cole Irvin tonight, whose 1.0 HR/9 rate this season is the best of his career. I’m not buying into Irvin all of a sudden not giving up the long ball, though. I think this is just a matter of him not seeing many home run teams this year. He’s fresh off giving up two home runs to the Yankees in his last start, and even gave up one to the Rays in back-to-back starts earlier this month.
3. Matt Olson, Braves (+310 at DraftKings)
With this HomerFest bonus, we don’t need to focus on any matchup that will see plenty of home runs, as we are getting paid for all home runs today. So, I have gone with what I feel is the best batter-pitcher matchup on the board in Matt Olson vs Kyle Gibson.
This is a classic left-on-right matchup where Olson is hitting .417 in 24 ABs, with two doubles and four home runs. The Braves 1B is in a bit of a slump right now, only hitting .125 over the last seven days, and he also let us down on Dinger Tuesday last week, but not only do I believe in second chances, I also feel this is Olson’s slumpbuster.
There are also a number of other Braves who have had success against Gibson, so as mentioned earlier, I would understand you wanting to make this bet with FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday instead. I just didn’t have a ton of faith in home runs being hit at Busch Stadium.
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Blue Jays (+450 at Caesars)
I do appreciate that some may not be in favor of betting a player to hit a home run in his third consecutive game, or to make it a home run in four of his last five games. But at the same time, Vladimir Guerrero Jr is red-hot! The fact that he only has ten home runs this season is insane – he hit 26 in 156 games last season and had 32 and 48 the two years prior.
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It seems Guerrero is just trending back towards his career averages. (I’m sure it has helped having some other guys in the Blue Jays lineup around him who are getting some hits as well.) As he is doing so, he gets a pitcher he absolutely loves in Brayan Bello. He hits .412 off Bello in 17 ABs and four of the seven hits have been for extra bases, two leaving the playing field.
Guerrero also just saw Bello six days ago, but went 0/3 against him hitting a couple balls hard.
5. Willy Adames, Brewers (+320 at Caesars)
Willy Adames leads the Brewers in home runs this season with 13 and gets a matchup tonight that he loves against LHP Andrew Heaney. Adames hits .467 in 15 ABs against Heaney and has taken him yard in two of the seven hits.
The Brewers SS also must be thrilled to be back home. The Brewers just returned home from a seven-day road trip, where Adames only hit one home run. When playing at home this season, he has hit 10 home runs in 122 ABs – versus just three in 177 ABs on the road. I also think he’ll be eager to swing the bat tonight, after walking in two of his four plate appearances last night.
If you’re looking for more all-user bonuses today, check out our daily odds boosts page!
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
