The 5 Best Home Run Props to Bet for Dinger Tuesday Today (June 18)
- It’s Tuesday again and that means sportsbooks are offering some great home run bonuses and boosts
- There are 15 games to choose home runs from today, though a couple have some weather concerns
- See the five players I have bet to hit a home run today using my bonuses and profit boosts
All last night I felt sick to my stomach while looking ahead at today’s matchups and projected lineups. There were simply too many players I saw with a great probability to hit a home run, far too many pitchers scheduled to start who love giving up bombs, and great venues for home runs to be hit.
I didn’t have to dig very deep to find great home run picks for today. The heavy lifting was trying to figure out which players I was most comfortable leaving out. Spoiler alert: we have the top two teams in home runs this season playing each other at one of the best home run parks in the majors, and I haven’t bet any players from that game. That’s how good today’s slate is for home run picks.
After going 1/4 on my picks last week (cashing a +450 with Freddie Freeman) and also getting us $40 in bonus bets through FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo, here’s who I’m betting to hit a home run today:
Best Players to Bet to Hit a Home Run Today
Thankfully, one more sportsbook has shown up today with a home run odds boost of their own, as DraftKings is offering a “Big Fly 33% Home Run Boost” that can be used on any player. Add that in to Dinger Tuesday, which gives us two players to bet, and Caesars’ two 25% home run profit boosts, and I have five players I got to bet today.
The first two will be with the FanDuel Dinger Tuesday bonus, where we can also earn bonus bets for each home run hit in the game, and the next three are just simply profit boosts on that player to hit a home run.
1. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+390 at FanDuel)
I’m coming back to old faithful. Freeman cashed for us last week and I believe he’s going to do it again. The Dodgers 1B is hitting .435 with two home runs in the last seven days. He also smashes Austin Gomber. Freeman has six hits in 11 at bats, and two of those cleared the fence. Gomber has given up 12 home runs in just 69.2 innings pitched this season, good for a 1.57 HR/9 rate.
We just saw this matchup back on June 2 as well, though it was in LA, and Gomber gave up two home runs in just three innings pitched. I bet you’ll never guess who hit one of those Dodger home runs … (of course it was Freeman.) I think Freeman is also going to be eager to swing the bat after being walked five times last night.
Freddie Freeman had six plate appearances Monday against the Rockies:
PA #1: Walk
PA #2: Walk
PA #3: Walk
PA #4: Walk
PA #5: Walk (Intentional)
PA #6: SingleThis is the first time in his career he’s reached six times in a game. What a performance by the Dodgers first baseman.
— Noah Camras (@noahcamras) June 18, 2024
On the other side, Walker Buehler has given up eight home runs in 33 innings pitched, good for a 2.18 HR/9 rate. He saw the Rockies back on May 31, when he gave up a home run and three earned runs in six innings. Buehler has given up at least one home run in six of his seven starts. So, even though Colorado ranks 26th in home runs this season, I feel good about them getting at least one off Buehler, and expect the Dodgers to crush Gomber. Add in that sweet Colorado air, and I love this pick!
2. Zach Neto, Angels (+480 at FanDuel)
Neto is one of the hottest longball hitters in baseball right now. The Angels SS is only hitting .269 over the last seven days, but when he has made contact, it has been good contact. He has seen three balls leave the park in those last 26 at-bats, including one against the Brewers last night, and has two doubles to add to it.
But this pick isn’t just about Neto hitting the ball hard right now. A big part is the pitching matchup. Brewers starter Tobias Myers has given up eight home runs in 40.2 IP, good for a 1.8 HR/9 rate. What makes that stat even better is that Myers hasn’t even faced many home run teams this year. Of the nine games he has started this season, only one has come against a team who ranks in the top ten of home runs hit. That game was against the Yankees and he gave up two home runs. Seven of his nine have come against teams who rank 20th or worse in home runs, and three have come against the bottom six.
Zach Neto crushes a two-run homer to extend the Angels lead! pic.twitter.com/vMcIX0NqhP
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 18, 2024
The Angels aren’t what I would call a great home run team, but they do rank 13th in the league and have some serious power in the lineup.
Looking to the other side of this matchup makes the pick even more attractive as well. Joey Ortiz is the only Brewers batter who has faced Angels starter Griffin Canning, and he hasn’t had any success. (But Ortiz isn’t really a player I am counting on here anyways.) Most other batters have been having success against Canning this season, as his ERA is now 4.76 and he has given up 13 home runs in 75.2 IP, good for a 1.56 HR/9 rate. Canning has given up at least one HR in five of his last six starts, and I expect the Brewers power (8th in home runs) to come through in a great home run ballpark.
3. Bryson Stott, Phillies (+650 at DraftKings)
I’ll keep the commentary tighter for these, since I’m only focused on the singular matchup. I was torn between Kyle Schwarber, who is destroying baseballs right now, and Bryson Stott. Both have had success against Padres pitcher Michael King, but ultimately, I felt Schwarber was a little too short at +195 and I couldn’t say no to +650 on a guy who is batting 1.000 against King with two home runs in three at-bats.
King has also been no stranger to giving up deep shots this season, as he has allowed 13 home runs in 83 IP.
4. Lane Thomas, Nationals (+480 at Caesars)
I don’t understand why we are getting these odds on a guy who has hit a home run in each of his last three games and is batting .364 over the last seven days. Not to mention, he faces Slade Cecconi, who has given up 12 home runs in just 44.1 IP, at Nationals Park, which is very longball friendly.
Get Your First Bet Back - Up To $1,000 On Caesars!
5. Matt Olson, Braves (+295 at Caesars)
Admittedly, I wanted to bet Royce Lewis against Aaron Civale, and even had my eyes on a couple other batters in that game, but it is likely the game will be rained out, or at the very least delayed, and I don’t want this boost to go to waste. Though it’s not as likely to be rained out / delayed, the Mariners/Guardians matchup is also in jeopardy. So, I have landed on Matt Olson, who is hitting .423 in the last seven days with two home runs.
Olson will see RHP Casey Mize, who he has faced three times in the past, coming up with two hits, one of which was a home run.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
