The Best Home Run Props to Bet for Dinger Tuesday Today (July 2)
- Another Dinger Tuesday is here and bettors are being treated to home run bonuses at online sportsbooks
- All 30 MLB teams are in action but there are a few matchups that feature pitchers who love giving up home runs
- Check out the players I am betting to hit home runs today and how I am using each of my home run bonuses
As I was crunching some numbers last night, I was getting a little concerned with how I would make a decision on which two games I would focus on for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promo. There are more than two matchups on today’s MLB schedule that scream home runs. Thankfully, when I woke up this morning and opened up my sports betting apps to check in on home run bonuses, I noticed FanDuel’s offering has changed slightly – though my bonus money per home run has gone down, I no longer have a limit on the number of games I can bet.
So, while the last handful of Dinger Tuesday articles have been focusing on which matchups are best and typically focusing on five players to hit a home run, this article is going to be focused on which home run props are worth betting.
We found some success last week betting Anthony Santander and also benefitted from some good bonus bets coming back from FanDuel and DraftKings. Here’s who I am putting my money on this week:
Best Home Run Picks for Today
Before I dive into my home run bets, I want to make sure everyone is aware the Tampa Bay vs Kansas City game is likely to be rained out today. So, I will be avoiding that matchup and would recommend you do too – even if it were going to be played, I would probably still lay off.
The home run bonuses I am working with today are as follows: (1) FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, which is allowing me to bet a player from any game (with no limit on the number of games) to hit a home run, and I get $2 back for each home run hit in that matchup; (2) DraftKings’ HomerFest, which allows me to bet any (one) player to hit a home run and I get $0.50 back for each home run hit today (in all games); and (3) Caesars’ Tuesday Dingers, which gives me two 25% profit boosts to use on home run markets. Here’s how I will be using these bonuses today:
1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+310 at FanDuel)
Admittedly, I was a little torn on whether I wanted to use this matchup for Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel, or just take Alvarez as my pick at either DraftKings or Caesars. But the awakening of the Toronto Blue Jays bats over the last 15 days has given me the confidence we’ll see at least a few home runs in this one.
Alvarez has been crushing right-handers this season, cranking 13 of his 17 home runs off RHP in 202 ABs. The right-handed pitcher he faces today is Jose Berrios, who is getting smashed by left-handed batters. The Blue Jays starter has given up 12 of his 18 home runs against lefties. Berrios’ HR/9 rate is 1.56 and he averages one home run allowed in every 16.6 ABs versus left-handed hitting.
Though Alvarez has not fared overly well against Berrios, hitting just .154 in 13 ABs, most of those ABs came prior to this season when Berrios was not struggling so mightily against LHH.
If Alvarez doesn’t get it done for us, we have also seen Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve take Berrios deep in the past, as well as Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Yainer Diaz all hitting .500 or better against him.
Looking to the other side, Spencer Arrighetti has a 5.68 ERA and while he hasn’t given up many home runs this season (just eight), he also hasn’t faced many home run teams. Arrighetti gave up three dingers in his only meeting with the Yankees this season and also saw three balls clear the fence against the Tigers back on June 15. As I said earlier, the Jays might be a home run team again. Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer each have three home runs in the last seven days and are hitting .455 and .550, respectively, in that timeframe.
2. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+430 at FanDuel)
I love this matchup (Diamondbacks vs Dodgers) for home runs to be hit, but I was a little back-and-forth on which specific player I wanted to bet. Both pitchers are right-handers who watch a fair amount of balls leave the park when facing LHH, and there just so happens to be some good left-handed bats between the two lineups, including Joc Pederson, Ketel Marte (switch), Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman. I threw Marte out because he has been far better against LHP (batting right) and also can’t stomach +196 odds for Ohtani.
Looking to the two pitchers, I chose to target Ryne Nelson over Bobby Miller, in spite of Miller’s HR/9 being a bloated 1.8. I just don’t trust the Dodgers to leave Miller out there very long after he has only pitched more than four innings in two of five starts. Nelson’s HR/9 is only 1.2 (still a little high, just doesn’t compare to Miller’s) but he also carries a 5.69 ERA this season.
The Dodgers lineup was shutdown when they saw Nelson on May 22, only managing five hits in Nelson’s five IP and did not score a single run in the game. The guy I am betting to go yard today, Freddie Freeman, went 0-4 in that night, which is unusual for him against RHP. He averages .328 with nine home runs against righties this season.
I like Freeman and the whole Dodgers lineup to get some revenge against Nelson tonight.
3. Ryan McMahon, Rockies (+450 at FanDuel)
While a Brewers vs Rockies matchup may not immediately send home run thoughts to your mind, the pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel vs Ryan Feltner sure does. Add in the game being played in that thin Colorado air, and we’ve got ourselves the makings of a home run derby here.
Keuchel was horrific in his first start for the Brewers this season, allowing two home runs and five earned runs through just four IP. Yet, injuries have forced Milwaukee to trot Keuchel out to the mound again tonight. Feltner has been a home run guy this season as well, sporting a 1.3 HR/9 rate. While he has not given up a home run in either of his last two starts, which came against the Astros and Dodgers (home run hitting teams), he did allow a combined eight earned runs on 13 hits.
Ryan McMahon’s 10th home run of the year puts the @Rockies up early! pic.twitter.com/xDr0EZuz0j
— MLB (@MLB) May 26, 2024
So, I think there’s a good chance we see any of Willy Adames, Rhys Hoskins, William Contreras, Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar, or Michael Toglia go deep tonight. I’m siding with McMahon of the group, which might seem a little unorthodox as a left-on-left matchup. However, McMahon averages .316 and has five of his 14 home runs (in less than half the ABs) against LHP this season.
4. Paul DeJong, White Sox (+520 at FanDuel)
Of the four games I am targeting for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, this is the one I am least confident in. So, I would understand you either laying off or using one of the other bonuses available on Paul DeJong to hit a home run. Don’t let that fool you, though. I am still confident we see a handful of home runs in this one.
Carlos Carrasco has an HR/9 rate of 1.4 and Chris Flexen’s is 1.5. These guys both love giving up home runs, and there are a number of batters who have enjoyed success when facing them in the past as well. Seven of the nine projected players in Chicago’s lineup today hit .300 or better against Carrasco, with three of them hitting .429 or better. DeJong, the player I am throwing my money on, not only leads the White Sox in home runs, but has taken Carrasco deep in two of his ten plate appearances.
Though I also feel good about one of Jose Ramirez or Josh Naylor taking Flexen deep, I liked the +520 odds on DeJong too much to pass up.
5. Mark Vientos, Mets (+260 at DraftKings)
With the DraftKings HomerFest bonus, I didn’t need to focus on any specific game, since I am going to get bonus money back for every home run hit in the league tonight. So, I was just looking at pitcher vs batter matchups for this one, and targeting DJ Herz was an opportunity I could not let slide.
Herz has given up five home runs in 21.1 IP, and at least one home run allowed in three of five starts. His first start of the season came back on June 4 against the same Mets he sees today. Herz only lasted four innings, giving up seven hits and four earned runs – one of which came off a home run from Harrison Bader.
Though Mark Vientos went 0-2 against Herz that day, he is red hot over the last seven days – hitting .364 with three home runs – and has fared very well against LHP this season. Vientos is hitting .364 and has four home runs in just 55 ABs against lefties.
6. Juan Soto, Yankees (+420 at Caesars)
Graham Ashcraft is another home-run-friendly pitcher who takes the mound today. Ashcraft’s HR/9 rate this season is 1.5 and he now has to face a Yankees lineup full of home run hitters.
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The Reds pitcher has seen LHH average .298 against him and have taken him deep seven times in just 131 ABs. The best left-handed bat in the Yankees lineup belongs to Juan Soto, who has seen Ashcraft nine times in the past and has three hits off him, two of which were turned into doubles. I like him to get his first home run off Ashcraft tonight.
7. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+380 at Caesars)
George Kirby isn’t necessarily a home run pitcher, his HR/9 rate is only 1.0, but he has not fared well against Gunnar Henderson in their seven meetings. Henderson has three hits in seven ABs against Kirby, including one home run.
The Baltimore SS is averaging .300 and has 21 home runs in 230 ABs off RHP this season. Though T-Mobile Park isn’t the friendliest home run park, it isn’t a bad park for HRs. Henderson also has the power to go deep in any stadium in the Majors.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
