Best MLB Home Run Picks & Predictions for Dinger Tuesday July 30
- Another Dinger Tuesday is upon us, which means it’s time to bet home run props
- Three sportsbooks are offering home run bonuses today
- See the 4 players I am betting to hit a home run today & how I’m using my home run bonuses
We’re back with another Dinger Tuesday, and I have four players I am betting to hit home runs tonight using the home run bonuses provided by three different sportsbooks. While I didn’t love many of the matchups we had last Dinger Tuesday, today is much, much more favorable.
See the four players I’m betting to hit home runs today below, as well as how I’m using each of my home run bonuses.
1. Bryce Harper, Phillies (+350 at FanDuel)
I want to start by saying, I do not think Gerrit Cole loves giving up home runs as much as his 2.31 HR/9 rate suggests. The right-hander has been victimized by the Mets, who have accounted for seven of the nine home runs he has given up in his seven starts this season. Cole has actually held the Orioles, who lead the MLB in home runs, to no dingers across ten innings.
The Yankees starter has still given up a home run to each of the Red Sox and Rays, though. He now gets another home run team in the Phillies, and after Philadelphia watched the Yankees hit six home runs last night, I think they’re going to be eager to get in on the action today. The player I’m siding with is Bryce Harper, who went 0-4 last night and is only hitting .083 over the last seven days.
Left-handed batters are hitting .288 against Cole this season, though, and the last time we saw Harper go hitless in back-to-back games, a feat he is currently riding, he came out and hit a home run in the next game.
I would understand wanting to go Kyle Schwarber here, who has two home runs off Cole in 25 ABs, but the +240 odds were a little too short for me.
On the other side, Aaron Nola faces a Yankees lineup that just put up 14 home runs last night and watched the ball fly over the fence six times. Nola has a 1.24 HR/9 rate this season and a number of Yankees hit him well. All of Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Verdugo, and Aaron Judge hit .333 or better against the RHP. Stanton and Juan Soto have hit two and three home runs off him, respectively. So, even if Harper isn’t the one who hits a big fly tonight, I feel good about getting my money back in bonus bets.
Even with a possible delay or rainout, the weather is actually going to help us in Philadelphia, assuming the game does get played. There are moderate winds blowing out to left-center field, providing a nice advantage to hitters in this matchup.
2. Pete Alonso, Mets (+360 at FanDuel)
We have been given a gift this Dinger Tuesday with David Festa getting another start for the Twins. The right-hander has given up five home runs in just 14.1 IP this season, and has an 8.16 ERA. Festa has had major trouble keeping the ball in-play and he has to deal with a Mets lineup that has hit the fourth-most home runs in the Majors this season.
The only difficulty in making this pick is which Met to go with. I’m siding with Pete Alonso, who is swinging a hot bat right now with three home runs and a .306 average over the last seven days. Alonso has also hit 16 of his 22 home runs this season against RHP and 13 have come at home, as he added one to each tally when he took Simeon Woods Richardson deep last night. But I also don’t think Alonso will be the only Met to hit a home run tonight.
Thankfully, the Twins are also a home run team, but they don’t have as juicy of a matchup as the Mets do against Festa. Minnesota will see Sean Manaea, who has a 1.02 HR/9 rate. As a team, the Twins hit .276 vs LHP and have gone yard in 33 of 928 ABs. There are a handful of Twins batters who hit Manaea well, including Carlos Santana, Willi Castro, Christian Vasquez, and Jose Miranda. Each one of them is averaging .333 or better against the lefty, and Miranda’s hit did fly over the fence. I’m expecting at least one from the Twins tonight.
Though we are dealing with a possible delay or rainout, just like my pick above, the weather is actually beneficial to hitters in New York. There are moderate winds blowing out to left-center field, so if the rain does hold off, we are likely to see the ball carry.
3. Michael Toglia, Rockies (+450 at Caesars)
I was really on the fence about using this game for Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel as well, but have opted to just pick on Griffin Canning, who has given up 20 home runs this season in 110.2 IP. Canning has given up at least one home run in each of his last eight starts, and 12 of his last 13.
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The player I think takes advantage tonight is Michael Toglia, who leads the Rockies in home runs with 18 in just 61 games. Toglia has two home runs and is batting .381 over the last seven days, which is a massive improvement from his once .106 average about a month into the season.
4. Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks (+360 at DraftKings)
I would typically avoid picking any players to hit home runs at Chase Field, as it’s the least home run friendly park in the Majors. However, Ketel Marte has hit 11 of his 24 home runs at home this season, and he sees a pitcher he absolutely crushes tonight in Patrick Corbin.
In 12 previous ABs, Marte has five hits (.417 average) against the left-hander. One of those five hits was a double and two of them were home runs.
Sadly, DraftKings’ home run odds surge for today is only adding +100 to their odds. But I love Marte at +460 to take Corbin deep tonight!
With nearly a decade working in the industry, Matt is a seasoned sports betting veteran. He got his start with SBD in 2016 and worked his way up the ladder to become the Editor-in-Chief. Along the way he has done everything from reviewing sportsbooks to creating proprietary sports betting tools.
