Best Home Run Picks & Odds Across Today’s NLDS Slate

• Breaking down the slate’s most lucrative home run props, highlighting favorable environments in San Diego and Atlanta.
• Analyzing top-tier bats and gritty underdog longshots positioned to exploit vulnerable pitching matchups.
• Delivering three data-backed HR predictions tailored for today’s high-leverage MLB action.

Welcome to today’s two-game MLB slate, where the Dodgers-Braves and Brewers-Padres matchups offer plenty of power upside for home run props. Even with Chris Sale, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Nick Pivetta, and Dustin May scheduled, one mistake can turn into a valuable payout.

Venue matters, and both Truist Park and Petco Park rate as favorable run-scoring environments in the latest 2026 park factors. Below, we break down the best odds and data-backed MLB props to target, from premium bats to a high-upside underdog in Atlanta.

Note: Odds are subject to change and represent the best price currently available across the listed sportsbooks.

Top Home Run Prop Picks

Manny Machado (+500) — San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

In the late-night matchup in San Diego, Manny Machado presents a formidable opportunity to clear the fences against Milwaukee Brewers starter Dustin May. May brings a 0.86 HR/9 rate over 145.2 innings into this contest. However, that metric climbs to an elevated 1.72 in this specific split against the Padres, exposing a notable vulnerability for the right-hander.

“Great hitters thrive on familiarity,” as the old scouting adage goes, and Machado has a substantial track record against May. He boasts a 10-for-42 career line with a pair of home runs in this matchup, reinforcing his high-leverage edge. The environment also works to his advantage, as Petco Park currently sits tied for fourth in the ballpark rankings with 2.00 home runs per game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+490) — San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Also taking aim at Dustin May in San Diego is Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres’ dynamic slugger has seen plenty of May throughout his career. Tatis has translated that familiarity into consistent volume, going 7-for-29 with a home run against the Brewers’ arm. With May surrendering 14 long balls this season and struggling to suppress home runs in this matchup, Tatis is primed to capitalize.

Petco Park is the ideal backdrop for Tatis to flash his elite power. The stadium has yielded 14.50 hits and 6.50 runs per game, along with a top-five home run rate. This combination of historical context and a favorable stadium environment creates a perfect storm for power production.

Drake Baldwin (+620) — Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

In the marquee clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves, Drake Baldwin offers an intriguing, underdog power profile. He faces Los Angeles starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who enters the game with a 0.97 HR/9 rate. Yamamoto has surrendered 20 home runs over 185.0 innings—the highest mark among today’s scheduled starters, presenting a clear target for longshot bettors.

True to the underdog mentality, Baldwin has already proven he can grind out at-bats and take Yamamoto deep. Though their career sample size is brief, Baldwin is 1-for-3 with a home run in their previous encounters. The venue also provides a massive tactical edge. Truist Park currently ranks third overall in the ballpark metrics, yielding an impressive 2.33 home runs and 7.67 runs per game.