AL Cy Young Odds: Can Chris Sale Be Caught?

• Chris Sale sits atop the AL Cy Young odds
• Despite landing on the DL, Sale has by far the best numbers in the AL
• Can he maintain his lead while sitting out until mid-September?

The Boston Red Sox have rode an abundance of riches to first place in Major League Baseball. Their offense has been keyed by a Triple Crown candidate in JD Martinez, and their pitching has been powered by the electric arm of Chris Sale.

While Martinez has competition when it comes to the AL MVP, the Cy Young race is another matter altogether. Depending on how bad his shoulder injury actually is, it looks like it’s Sale’s.

With the Sox ace sitting at average odds of -235 across a number of online sportsbooks, is there anyone else worth laying money on in the AL? What if he doesn’t pitch again?

That’s what we’re going to try to figure out.

Chris Sale’s season-long Cy Young romance

For Sale, he has been in the Cy Young conversation all season long.

When things kicked off, he was favored over Corey Kluber. Sale had average odds of +230 while Kluber sat at +260. Justin Verlander took over as the favorite for a couple of months, but then things swung entirely in Sale’s favor.

In five starts from the beginning of July to August 12, there is one word to describe Sale: untouchable.

In four July starts he went six innings in all of them. He gave up 16 hits in 25 innings, four walks, and one earned run. ONE.

He notched double-digit strikeouts in three starts, finishing the month with 43 total. Opponents hit .178 off of him, and his WHIP was a ludicrous 0.80. And it carried into August despite a stop on the Disabled List.

Cy Young debate in AL: How many innings must Chris Sale throw in order to win the award? He is at 146 IP now while on the disabled list — and still leads AL pitchers in WAR, per @fangraphs. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) August 22, 2018

Before returning to the DL, Sale spun five innings of one-hit ball in his start against the Orioles. The one hit is great, but even crazier is that 12 of his 15 outs were strikeouts.

Before returning to the DL, Sale spun five innings of one-hit ball in his start against the Orioles.

Now it’s up in the air as to when Sale will be available to pitch again. By all accounts, and rightly so, the Red Sox won’t be rushing him. As of August 22nd, there was no real update on his status.

The good news is that it seems more like a procedural move, sitting a key arm for some much-needed rest. So if Sale does come back in late September and deals like he has been, he’ll only strengthen his case.

How Chris Sale stacks up to the Cy Young pack

While not pitching could hurt him in the eyes of voters, it won’t hurt Sale’s already ridiculous stats.

There are two categories he’ll definitely fall behind in: wins and strikeouts.

Already four behind Kluber for the AL lead in wins, Sale won’t be racking up any more on the DL. He does have an advantage though. Despite the fact he can’t pick up any wins, he also can’t log any more losses.

Sitting at 12-4, there is just one pitcher with fewer losses than Sale in the top ten for wins: Houston’s Charlie Morton. Both Kluber and Luis Severino are 16-6. While they’ll likely win a little more in Sale’s absence, they’ll likely also end up losing some.

Among Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander, the AL Cy Young chase is also tight if you just look at the average start with the edge going to Sale but not by as much as you would think pic.twitter.com/Y4mczZR0NO

— Sully Baseball (@sullybaseball) August 14, 2018

In terms of strikeouts, there’s only one man who can pass Sale. Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer. Bauer is sitting four strikeouts behind Sale, despite starting two more games than him. Bauer will likely pass him in his next start, but Morton (182) and Severino (181) are far behind.

Even then, there’s likely no way the field can touch Sale’s 13.5 K/9 inning. So despite him losing ground in one category, he doesn’t run the risk of tarnishing the other.

The same can be said for his ERA and WHIP, where Blake Snell (2.07 ERA), and Justin Verlander (0.93 WHIP) are his closest competitors.

One of them is also his biggest threat when it comes to Sale winning his first Cy Young.

Verlander standing in Sale’s Cy Young way

Sale and Verlander are neck-and-neck in nearly all categories, and Verlander may have the pedigree to steal away the Cy Young.

Verlander has been dominant at age 35. Typically, that’s an age where most pitchers are re-inventing themselves

He’s entering a month where he’s logged an ERA under two the last two seasons. You could also argue he’s the sentimental choice. Verlander has one Cy Young to his name, and it was the year he claimed MVP (2011). Voters could easily take age into consideration, look at the gap in years, and honor a great season.

The best thing for Sale is if  Verlander stumbles like the rest of the ‘Stros. Even if he puts up pedestrian numbers, it could be enough to sway things in his favor.

Is Sale a Cy Young lock?

This is tough to say, but no. He has to pitch before the last two weeks of September to make it worth it.

If he doesn’t, then voters could very well say “numbers be damned.” Especially if Verlander or Kluber continue at their current pace. Both of them would have at least 30 starts, while Sale has just 23 right now.

Since 1995, no one has won the AL Cy Young with fewer than 29 starts. David Cone won it in 1994 with 23.

Since 1995, no one has won the AL Cy Young with fewer than 29 starts. David Cone won it in 1994 with 23.

Chris Sale’s season is great. Barney Stinson may even consider it legendary. But 23 starts won’t cut it if he wants that first Cy Young.