The “FIELD” Is Favored to Lead the MLB in Homers Over Yelich, Springer, Gallo; Just Who’s in This “FIELD” Option?

• The odds to lead the MLB in home runs in 2019 have been updated
• Reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich is the new favorite among the individual players listed
• However, the FIELD option has the shortest odds of all; find out who it includes

Bookmaker has updated the 2019 MLB home-run king odds to reflect some recent hot streaks and injuries.

Earlier in May, my colleague advised that Khris Davis was good value at +1200 to be the MLB home-run king. Unfortunately, Davis suffered an oblique strain that could keep him out for a while, and his odds have plummeted as a result.

Here’s where things stand as of May 24th.

Odds to Lead MLB in Home Runs in 2019

Springer Falls Due to Injury

George Springer was on pace for a career year before missing the last four games with back tightness. His odds have fallen from +400 to +501 as a result.

He’s expected back in the lineup on Friday (May 24), but has also only managed 140 games each of the last two seasons.

As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up

As the historically-good Astros run away with the AL West, expect Springer to get all the rest he needs anytime a minor issue flares up.

Tied for second in the majors at 17 HRs, Springer’s hard-hit rate of 55% is fourth overall. His current odds give him a 16.7% implied probability.

Yelich Becomes the Outright Favorite

With a two-homer lead on the field and 36-homer season under his belt, reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich has become the favorite.

Beware, though, the 27-year-old has missed seven games already this year, including the last two with back spasms. Like Springer, he’s returning on Friday.

Christian Yelich- Back- Yelich was scratched from the lineup tonight with back spasms. These back spasms are unrelated to the lower-back stiffness that sidelined him earlier in the season but are not considered serious, Adam McCalvy of https://t.co/wznV8oM89I reports. #Brewers

— Fantasy Baseball Injury Guru (@mlbinjuryguru) May 22, 2019

Yelich has a better track record than Springer in terms of health, playing at least 147 games in each of the last three seasons.  He’s just behind Spring in hard-hit rate at 54.8% (6th in MLB).

His odds give him a very-high 23.5% implied probability to lead the league in home runs.

Gallo is Lurking

Joey Gallo’s odds have improved ever so slightly over the last two weeks, but the change is minimal. A 6’5 freak athlete, Gallo hit the 40-homer mark in 2017 and 2018.

The narrative around him this season is that he has become a more complete hitter, and that’s certainly true. His OPS has skyrocketed from a solid .810 to an MVP-caliber 1.113 (fourth-best in the majors). Formerly a Golden Sombrero candidate on any given night, he’s … actually still striking out a ton (35.0%), but is also being more patient. He’s upped his walk rate from 12.8% to 19.1%.

His new approach at the plate hasn’t cost him any power, indeed he’s hitting the ball harder this year. He leads the majors in hard-hit rate at 60.7% and average exit velocity at 96.9 MPH! That’s 11% higher than last season.

In terms of durability, Gallo averaged 146.5 games in 2017 and 2018, his first full seasons in the majors. H has missed four games this year, but they were all one-offs and he is not currently sporting any injury concerns.

Gallo’s current odds (+939) carry an implied probability of 9.6%.

Why Is “FIELD” the Favorite?

In short, because five of the top-ten and 19 of the top 30 on the current leaderboard are in the FIELD. They include …