2019 MLB ERA Over/Unders: Sale Projected to Record Lowest; Where’s the Value?

• Chris Sale has the lowest projected ERA for the 2019 MLB season
• Sale had a minuscule 2.11 ERA in 2018, the lowest of his seven year career
• Which Over/Unders offer the best value?

Trying to square up a Chris Sale offering must be next to impossible. The lanky left-hander has a wicked arsenal of pitches to choose from, and is just as likely to freeze a hitter with his change-up as he is to light up triple digits on the radar gun.

Chris Sale has been turning up the ? lately.

The @RedSox ace reached 100.5 mph on his final pitch today, marking the fastest strikeout pitch of his career! pic.twitter.com/TBWcrXqOxi

— #Statcast (@statcast) June 24, 2018

The seven-time All Star is one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, and it’s no surprise to see him pegged as the favorite to lead the Majors in ERA in 2019.

2019 MLB ERA Projections and Odds

*All odds taken on 03/04/19 

Sale had a miniscule 2.11 ERA in 27 starts last season, the third time in his seven year career he’s finished the season with an ERA below 3.00.

Chris Sale

When healthy, Sale is virtually unhittable. He’s one of only 17 pitchers in MLB history to record 300 strikeouts in a season, and he has the luxury of pitching for a team who finished seventh in fielding percentage last season en route to another World Series championship.

Chris Sale closed it out for the Red Sox. pic.twitter.com/Nr7jb7AY5O

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 29, 2018

He allowed the fourth lowest hard hit rate in 2018, and during a 10 start stretch from June 8th to August 12th, he struck out 109 batters in 65 innings, while only allowing five runs.

Chris Sale’s too filthy. ?https://t.co/Dz3fynAkfF pic.twitter.com/wptpcdDPLP

— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2018

While it’s certainly not advantageous to pitch in the AL East, Sale has owned the Yankees over his career, in particular their two top sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Sale has a 1.61 career ERA versus the Bronx Bombers, and has struck out Judge and Stanton a combined 19 times in 30 plate appearances.

Pick: Under 2.63 (-115)

Clayton Kershaw

Once the most feared pitcher in baseball, three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw has struggled to stay on the diamond the last few seasons and is currently battling a shoulder injury that could prevent him from starting opening day.

Dave Roberts said still hopeful Kershaw will be ready for Opening Day, but concedes time is running out.

— Ken Gurnick (@kengurnick) March 4, 2019

His velocity is down almost four miles per hour since 2015 according to Brooks Baseball, and his strikeout rate has decreased in two of the last three seasons. He allowed a career worst 36.1% hard hit rate in 2018, and the highest opponent batting average since his rookie season in 2008.

Clayton Kershaw’s fastball had an average velocity of 90.2 mph this season, the lowest of his career. Opponents took full advantage, hitting .299 against the pitch, also a single-season worst for Kershaw

Learn more about Statcast powered by @awscloud
https://t.co/TnbBnpVKhS pic.twitter.com/skdkqiyTVF

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 17, 2018

His average length of start has also decreased in three consecutive seasons, culminating in 2018, when he averaged just over six innings per outing.

Pick: Over 2.99 (-105)

Blake Snell

Last season’s AL Cy Young Award winner is not getting a whole lot of respect at the books. Snell, who had one of the greatest seasons every by a southpaw, finished 2018 with an ERA well over a run below his 2019 projection.

73 Seconds of Blake Snell Filth from 2018. ?? #Snellzilla #Cyzilla pic.twitter.com/34wLLtOASz

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) January 3, 2019

His 1.89 ERA was the lowest by a qualified AL starer since Pedro Martinez in 2000, and the fifth lowest by a left-hander since 1969. He averaged just 5.6 hits allowed per nine innings, and held opposing hitters to a .176 batting average and a .277 slugging percentage.

What’s even more impressive is how he fared against elite competition in 2018. Snell went 9-2, with a 2.00 ERA against the Red Sox, Indians, Yankees, A’s, and Astros, the five American League playoff representatives.

Pick: Under 3.17 (-115)

David Price

David Price has finished with an ERA above 3.75 just once in his nine year career, and if the second half of last season is any indication, that total isn’t about to change.

David Price, Bonus Footage: 12 swings/misses on Changeups vs Astros (ALCS Game 5). pic.twitter.com/lf496kvgTQ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 10, 2019

After a slow start to 2018, Price dialed back his fastball frequency and leaned heavier on his off speed pitches. The result was a 2.25 ERA in 68 innings of work, and 4.25-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio. Price was particularly sharp in the postseason, allowing just seven runs in four starts in the ALCS and World Series, while striking out 23.

David Price threw 7-plus innings of one-run ball in a dominant World Series performance #TipOfTheCap pic.twitter.com/DVk1wn9k4f

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) October 29, 2018

He pitches for the best team in baseball and there’s no reason why the dominance he showed for the final months of 2018 won’t carry over to this season.

Pick: Under 3.75 (-115)