Sports Event Contract Users Tout Advantages of Prediction Markets in Legal Sports Betting States

• Sports event contract users in legal sports betting states claim several advantages in the markets over regulated sports betting
• Users cite better prices in certain event markets and less limits, but do have concerns over future legality
• Customers say responsible gaming messages in regulated sportsbooks are easier to see compared with prediction market platforms

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Prediction markets are available everywhere nationwide, providing customers with the opportunity to trade sports event contracts in certain states that have yet to legalize sports betting apps.

It’s an advantage companies such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and other prediction market operators have trumpeted for their customer bases, an easy solution for residents in states who wish to indulge in sports event contracts when legalized sports betting isn’t available.

But why would a customer who lives in a state with legalized sports betting use prediction market platforms when a regulated sports betting platform already exists? What advantages do they see for these markets over regulated and licensed sports betting operators that in many cases have been available for more than eight years?

Sports Betting Dime posed this question to readers to understand why they favored prediction market platforms over online sportsbooks in states where sports betting is legal. We received many responses, yet several respondents were hesitant to allow their full names to be published. In fairness, we allowed those who were uncertain to only provide their first name and state of residence, but have edited out any specific names of prediction market platforms or sportsbooks they provided in their comments.

Some respondents were hesitant to allow Sports Betting Dime to even use their first name, let alone their last name or the state they live in, so their comments were not included.

Price Shopping Increases Prediction Market Value

The most common answer from dedicated customers of sports event contracts in states with legalized sports betting is the ability to find better prices on certain markets with prediction market operators.

“I still use traditional sportsbooks, but prediction markets have become another tool for me and one I’ve been using increasingly over the last few months. In golf and NASCAR out rights, everything starts with price, and there are times Kalshi or Polymarket just straight up offer much better odds than the sportsbook market,” Kevin Donjon, 41, of Illinois told Sports Betting Dime.

Prediction markets also provide the opportunity for bettors to “hedge” their bets in an easier fashion than traditional sportsbooks.

This is particularly true, Donjon said, for markets such as professional golf or NASCAR.

“The biggest advantage to me is hedging my outright bets. If a golfer I backed gets into contention, I can buy the ‘No’ side and directly lock in profit. With a sportsbook, I would usually have to hedge across multiple golfers, which is more complicated and depends on timing and stake sizing. Same with NASCAR, when you know the race is about to get real wild with 20 laps to go and your bet has a three-second lead.”

Haywood Cheung of Ontario told Sports Betting Dime he currently uses a VPN to access American prediction markets due to their 24-hour accessibility, ease of payouts, and better prices on markets that interest him.

“The main advantage is the odds. No house edge adds up a lot. Another thing is the fact that prediction markets are 24-7, in other words always online, unlike sportsbooks where they can pause and suspend cash outs and stop you from placing bets,” he said.

Of course, the Alberta Gaming, Liquor, & Cannabis Commission ushered in the province’s regulated online sports betting and iGaming market this summer. For years, PlayAlberta was the only legal Alberta sports betting app and regulated iGaming site in the province, it is not necessarily the only operator currently in the province. However, operators offered gaming in Alberta as part of the gray market, where they offered games to Canadian sports bettors and customers but provided the Alberta government with no tax revenues.

Canada has not welcomed sports event or entertainment contracts into their borders as yet. The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) recently issued a joint statement declaring event contracts based on sports and entertainment events or outcomes should not be regulated within securities and derivatives legislation and not appropriate to trade these types of event contracts.

But as Cheung noted, and has shown through his use of a VPN, if people want to access these markets they will “find ways to access it.”

Kannon Talken of Missouri told Sports Betting Dime he began trading sports event contracts in early 2025 prior to the Show-Me State’s launch of online sports betting on Dec. 1, 2025. There was no legal avenue to “get into that action,” Talken said, other than prediction market platforms. Talken said he used sweepstakes casinos and offshore sportsbooks prior to turning 21 to bet on sports.

But even after the legalization of Missouri online sports betting, Talken said the pricing advantages offered by prediction markets made a transition to traditional sportsbook less appealing for him.

“I would say, honestly, it’s 95% pricing. I’m not putting thousands down on games, but it’s anywhere from ten to a few hundred dollars of range. For the type of volume I’m trying to get down, and as someone who is limited by some of the larger books, some of these sites are far and away the best price I can get,” he said.

Limiting Pushes Users to Prediction Markets

The practice of limiting by traditional sportsbooks have led many to seek out sports event contracts as an option to trade on sports in an easier fashion. While pricing may have been the most common answer provided to Sports Betting Dime, limiting of customers was not far behind.

“The main reason for this is sportsbooks don’t want me and I don’t feel like bearding anymore. I was unsure how I’d like an exchange, but I’ve found it to be the most transparent option I’ve come across. Over 25 years I’ve used street guys, pay-per-head systems, offshores, legal sportsbooks, and prediction markets. I’ve been stiffed my share like most in 25 years and nothing has felt so disrespectful as betting limits of $3.04 or whatever made up formula they feel like imposing,” Craig from Illinois told Sports Betting Dime.

The general public has no idea how severe limiting can be for some sports bettors, Jeff Brogan of Pennsylvania said. Some sportsbooks are “so inept at managing risk that they refuse to even allow a fair bet on liquid markets where the edges are so small for the customer that these books are actually shooting themselves in the foot.”

“It’s really shameful in some cases, like why are you even in this business? Just to extract as much money as they possibly can from recs while kicking anyone with a pulse to the curb is the sad truth. Their strategy of ‘we only want losers’ is so bad for the ecosystem and is the sheer definition of a ‘rigged game’,” he told Sports Betting Dime.

He also pointed to the fact that prediction market platforms can also offer certain markets not available in each state. Brogan said he was able to trade sports event contracts on LeBron James’ next NBA team through his prediction market account, while Pennsylvania online sportsbooks did not feature that particular market.

Alex Llewelyn of Illinois said the same, as prediction markets provide him with another option after being limited by most major sportsbooks.

“Prediction markets are great for me as someone who trades live sports. Extremely high limits and the time that sportsbooks use to deny bets whose odds get worst don’t exist on prediction markets. Trades are instant on pretty much all prediction markets now. It’s all a very smooth experience,” he said.

“The ecosystem obviously needs losers to function, but I certainly don’t feel like I’m being discriminated against as a winner taker, unlike everywhere else. Not sure how long this will last but it has been nice.”

Isaac Rose-Berman of New York said he has been forced to use prediction markets over licensed sports betting operators as he’s limited to a maximum of $50 on most books, but also noted that cries of being limiting are likely overrepresented on social media by sports bettors.

Available limitation numbers do back up Rose-Berman’s limitation claim. A September 2025 report from the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, the first of its kind in the U.S., showed concrete numbers that a very small number of registered sports bettors in the commonwealth are actually limited by licensed sportsbooks.

As of Dec. 10, 2024, Massachusetts data showed that 0.64% of all Massachusetts sports betting accounts are limited in some fashion.

Among the limited players, 12.7% were limited severely to less than 1% of the default (the amount an account can wager on the day it is created), 57.6% were limited from 1% to 24% of the default, 11.9% were limited from 25% to 49% of the default, 14.3% were limited from 50% to 74% of the default, and 3.4% were limited from 75% to 99% of the default.

“I recognize this is a tiny minority of users. I also strongly believe that in states with legal online sports betting there is relatively little cannibalization from prediction markets. Also of note, obviously users who are limited will likely bet larger, which skews volume numbers. Just because there is a decent amount of prediction market volume in legal online sports betting states, that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a lot of cannibalization over average users, just a few sophisticated users doing lots of volume,” Rose-Berman said.

Ease of Use With Prediction Markets

Brian Peoplis of Montana told Sports Betting Dime that prediction markets offer a much easier barrier of entry into sports markets than state regulated sports betting. Montana features legalized sports betting, but no online sports betting option and a monopoly through its SportsBet Montana products.

“I use prediction markets because of the ease of use compared to SportsBet Montana, which is our statewide sports book. To place a bet in Montana, you must physically be located in one of our thousands of casinos that are at virtually every gas station. The state uses kiosks, and often times they barely work. Broken screens, horrible lag, just an overall awful user experience. Using a PM lets me easily wager from my phone,” he said.

If Montana ever legalizes online sports betting, Peoplis said he would likely continue using prediction market operators over legalized online sports betting, but may not do so exclusively. Having options, he noted, is much more advantageous than simply through one prediction market operator or a state-run sports betting monopoly.

Lawsuits Threaten Sports Event Contract Experience

However, most sports event contract customers we spoke with in legalized sports betting states said the threat of litigation has loomed large over their use of the products.

“I am definitely aware of the circuit court ruling and the impending Supreme Court showdown that I assume will happen at some point. I am somewhat worried that Montana will crack down on prediction markets. They already don’t allow daily fantasy sports to be played here, so it seems like the state is focused on controlling their monopoly,” Peoplis said.

Illinois users in particular told Sports Betting Dime their state’s role in attempting to regulate prediction market have directly impacted how they use the platforms.

Donjon said he is paying attention to state fights against sports event contracts and the U.S. Supreme Court’s eventual involvement in the legal discussions. It directly impacts how he involves himself in sports event contract futures.

“I have been paying attention to the lawsuit situations and for me it mostly just effects how much I want to expose myself to futures bets, 2027 golf majors in my case, on a prediction market knowing there’s a legal limbo that could cause an issue 10 months from now. Illinois took a tough stance against prediction markets. They have issued a memorandum stating that these companies are running illegal operations in the past. I think if Nevada can regulate Kalshi it will start the precedent and Illinois would soon follow suit. Just depends which way the first domino falls and I simply don’t know what would happen to my money if I placed a 2028 Ryder Cup future if they were somehow banned,” he said.

Llewelyn agreed, noting that if prediction markets leave Illinois due to either legal enforcement or from the state’s newly approved prediction market tax rate it “would be a very bad day for me.”

However, Brogan told Sports Betting Dime he believes the current presidential administration will likely keep prediction markets live while they are in office.

Perhaps if there is a change in administration after the 2028 elections there “might be something to worry about,” he said, but even if that happens there is so much money at stake some other type of offering will come along that to fill the void.

“But with so much money at stake I’m sure the Ivy League founders and executives of these companies will find a way to keep offering the same product to the hungry consumers regardless of any court rulings. Will more jurisdictions ban them? Sure, I think that’s very possible, but they’ll be very few that do. Yes, if the prediction markets did go away, however, I would have no choice but to go back to the online sportsbooks,” he said.

Responsible Gaming Visibility Better on Sportsbooks

When asked about any potential advantages legalized sportsbooks have over the prediction markets in these states, several customers noted that responsible gaming messaging and tools were more visible on online sports betting platforms compared with prediction market platforms.

Most legalized sports betting states require licensed operators to display responsible gaming messaging and some form of 1-800-GAMBLER promotion on home pages of their online platforms or websites. Failure to do so can result in fines and penalties within these states.

“From what I remember when I signed up, most of the responsible gaming information was in the FAQ or Help section and buried in the settings. I am someone who will look through sportsbook house rules if I have a question about how a bet will be settled, but even for me it was not very visible,” Donjon said.

“On a traditional sportsbook, responsible gaming tools and messages are usually easier to find. On prediction markets, the focus feels more like trading than betting, so the risks can be less obvious to a new user in my opinion. I think the platforms could do a better job putting deposit limits, time limits, and other responsible gaming resources directly in front of users instead of making them search for them.”

Peoplis agreed and said he saw very little mention of responsible trading or responsible trading tools when signing up for prediction market accounts.

“I believe there’s little to no consideration of responsible gaming tools in any prediction market platforms I’ve used.”