Roadster’s Kentucky Derby Odds at an Average of +610 Ahead of Wet Race

• Roadster no longer has the second-best odds to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby
• See Roadster’s current odds to win the Derby
• Is he a good bet?

With the start of the 2019 Kentucky Derby less than an hour away, there continues to be plenty of movement on the horse racing futures odds.

Improbable has made steady gains overnight, and now joins Game Winner as a +600 co-favorite, while Roadster has slipped to third, pegged as a +700 wager.

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby

*Odds taken on May 4

Rain Expected to be a Factor for Third Straight Year

Rain continues to be in the afternoon forecast at Churchill Downs, setting the stage for a muddy Run for the Roses for a third straight year.

The anticipated sloppy conditions have played a role in Improbable’s steady climb to the top of the Kentucky Derby odds board. The Bob Baffert-trained colt produced the best speed figure of his career on a sloppy track at the Arkansas Derby, where he finished second to Omaha Beach, who had emerged as the Kentucky Derby favorite before being scratched earlier this week.

Improbable also drew into the favorable No. 5 post position, which has produced a record 10 Kentucky Derby winners, including Always Dreaming two years ago, and California Chrome in 2015. However, with Haikal emerging a late scratch, horses that have drawn into posts one through 10 will now move out gate from the rail.

Game Winner Bred to Run in the Mud

Neither Improbable nor Roadster have ever raced on a sloppy track. It is not expected to be an issue for Game Winner. Sired by Candy Ride, Game Winner has reportedly been bred to run well on a wet surface.

But the stablemate of Improbable and Roadster has yet to earn a victory in 2019, placing second behind Omaha Beach at the Rebel Stakes before following up with a second-place run at the Santa Anita Derby, where Roadster earned his first career graded stakes race win.

Overcast, cool & drizzly out at Churchill. Best #KentuckyDerby rain chance still early afternoon through early evening. #Lex18AtTheDerby pic.twitter.com/HMTIxzDSfw

— Trackerman ⚡️ (@TomAckermanWx) May 4, 2019

Roadster a Steady Presence Atop the Odds Since Santa Anita Win

The unstable weather conditions will make it a challenging day for Roadster. A presence at the top of the Kentucky Derby odds since his win at Santa Anita, Roadster has never seen a wet track in his four career races.

While in the Baffert scrum, asked him how Mike Smith broke the news to him that he was going with Omaha Beach over Roadster in #KyDerby and how he reacted. @flothejock will ride the Santa Anita Derby winner on Saturday. pic.twitter.com/b0IOWiChcs

— Danonymous Man (@DanonymousMan) April 30, 2019

In addition, Roadster’s victory at Santa Anita came with Mike E. Smith aboard. Last year’s Triple Crown-winning jockey subsequently elected to make Omaha Beach his ride in the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby, with Florent Geroux taking over as Roadster’s mount.

The French jockey turned in a third-place finish at the Kentucky Derby in 2016, but has failed to finish in the top ten in muddy conditions at the Derby in each of the past two years.

Maximum Security, War of Will Likely to Benefit from West Conditions

While doubts swirl around how Roadster will perform on Saturday evening, value can be found in a pair of horses that have enjoyed previous success on a muddy track.

The only undefeated horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby field, Maximum Security started Saturday as an intriguing +900 wager on the horse racing futures. The Jason Servis-trained colt is coming off a solid win at the Florida Derby last time out.

But more important may be his impressive performance in a January run in the mud at Gulfstream Park, where he blew away the field by 6.5 lengths in a six-furlong run.

Things are also looking up for War of Will after a dismal ninth-place performance at the Louisiana Derby. War of Will subsequently drew on to the rail in Saturday’s race, and with the first 10 posts shifting out one gate from the rail, should benefit from a little more maneuvering room on the rail.

In addition, War of Will dominated earlier this year at Churchill Downs, powering to a five-length victory over 1 1/16 miles on a sloppy track back in January.

Pick: Maximum Security (+900)