Kentucky Derby Odds Update After Top Contenders Charlatan and Maxfield Forced to Withdraw

• Future prices for September’s Kentucky Derby have shifted dramatically
• Injuries to Charlatan, Nadal, and Maxfield have made Tiz the Law a significant favorite
• Who is the best bet now to win the Run for the Roses?

The new May is September. Because of COVID-19 this year’s Kentucky Derby was moved from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September. As one might expect, the timing is beneficial for some and unfortunate for others.

Charlatan is the biggest loser of the new timing. He may have been the favorite in May but now is injured and very unlikely to run. Nadal and Maxfield, two other promising three-year-olds are also on the mend.

On the flip side, Honor A.P. seems to be peaking now, could that still be too early? What about the regally bred Cezanne, who just won his debut, but still has time to qualify thanks to the new Derby date?

Because of injuries and recent results there has been a shakeup in the 2020 Kentucky Derby odds. Let’s look at the new numbers and see what value is present.

2020 Kentucky Derby Odds

Odds taken June 10

Favorite: Tiz The Law

The odds have shifted in Tiz The Law’s favor over the last month without him running a race. At one point sportsbooks were favoring the trio of Nadal, Charlatan and Tiz The Law over the field, but now just the New York-bred trained by Barclay Tagg remains. He certainly looked good when last seen in late March’s Florida Derby.

A winner of five out of six career races, the same connections, Tagg and Sackatoga Stable, that won the 2003 Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide are hoping lightning strikes twice. He is a very reasonable favorite, however, the race is three months away, and in a normal year what we think in February does not necessarily come to fruition in May.

Top Contenders: Honor A.P and Authentic

If only you had followed our advice. In March we had a notion that Honor A.P. provided value at 20/1. Then in May we liked +150 on the field vs. three favorites, and put some cash on Honor A.P. at 10/1. Following Honor A.P. defeating Authentic last weekend in the Santa Anita Derby, Honor A.P. is 9/2 and Authentic is 15/2.

That is the performance we have long believed Honor A.P. was going to produce. However, Authentic had the much more difficult trip, and now might be the better value. Honor A.P. lost to Authentic in the San Felipe Stakes, and Authentic also has a victory in the Sham Stakes. In recent memory, California horses have had great success in the Kentucky Derby, and it is possible these two are the class of the contenders.

Longshots: Cezanne and Dr. Post

You may not think 10/1 is a good value on Cezanne but it is impossible not to be intrigued. He was purchased for an outrageous $3.65 million yet didn’t make his debut until this month. That first race went well.

Like Authentic, Cezanne is trained by Bob Baffert, who conditioned the only two Triple Crown winners of the modern era, and while Cezanne got a late start, the Derby being pushed to September should work well for him.

Dr. Post is a lightly raced horse trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher and owned by Florida Panthers’ owner Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable. St. Elias has a share of Cezanne too. Dr. Post is two for two this year and will begin stepping up in quality of opposition soon. Should he look good in the Belmont Stakes, the odds will drop considerably.

The Bet: Authentic

Tiz The Law is a deserving favorite but taking a short price this far out doesn’t make a great deal of sense (look what happened to Nadal, Charlatan and Maxfield). Honor A.P. is the hot horse and we remain bullish on his chances. Cezanne is incredibly intriguing, but his purchase price can’t be the primary reason he wins the Run for the Roses. On the flip side, Authentic has proven he is top class, had a difficult trip in losing to Honor A.P., and has every right to take steps forward this summer. Value is present because of recency bias. We are happy to exploit that opportunity.