Formula That Has Predicted Each of Last 5 Kentucky Derby Winners Says Improbable Will Win in 2019

• Looking back at the past five editions of the Kentucky Derby, winning horses seem to share certain traits
• SBD has developed an equation which attempts to value the horses in the 2019 field which possess these traits
• Find out which of the morning-line favorites seems to be undervalued based on the current odds, and one that we recommend fading

Always in search of an edge, the number-crunching team at SBD has done a deep dive into the characteristics of the winning (and losing) horses over the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby.

Some commonalities stood out, specifically, horses born earlier in the year seem to be winning more often; horses with posts near the middle of the gate seem to have an edge; and horses with a jockey who has won the Derby before are performing well.

2019 Favorites by SBD Score

We ascribed a value to each of those characteristics and developed an equation which, coupled with the morning-line odds, spits out what we are calling an SBD Score.

Looking back at the last five years, it turns out that the horse with the lowest SBD Score has won each of the last five Derbys. Notably, in 2017, it correctly predicted that morning-line favorite Classic Empire was actually at a disadvantage vis-a-vis eventual winner Always Dreaming.

Below, we have set out the SBD scores for the top-five morning-line favorites from the 2019 Kentucky Derby, along with each of the last five years.

Note: for past editions, our calculations were limited to horses that were 10/1 or better on the morning line or the top-four favorites if there were not four horses at 10/1 or shorter.

Based on SBD Score, our team sees value on Improbable at +600, while second-favorite Roadster is our top horse to fade.

2018 Favorites by SBD Score

2017 Favorites by SBD Score

2016 Favorites by SBD Score

2015 Favorites by SBD Score

2014 Favorites by SBD Score