Blue Grass Stakes Odds, Picks, Predictions

• Saturday’s $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland is Kentucky’s top Run for the Roses prep race
• Tampa Bay Derby winner Tapit Trice is the favorite, though he already has earned enough points to run in Louisville
• See the Blue Grass Stakes odds ahead of Saturday

On 23 occasions the Kentucky Derby winner has run in the Blue Grass Stakes. Incredibly, the last Blue Grass winner to wear roses was Strike the Gold in 1991. Street Sense took the Tampa Bay Derby in 2007, before finishing as the runner up in the Blue Grass, and went on to win in Louisville. Is something similar on the docket for this year?

Blue Grass favorite Tapit Trice is coming off a win in the Tampa Bay Derby, but will face the his most difficult challenge to date at Keeneland on Saturday. The $1 million mile-and-an-eighth test drew a field of 11, with several reasonable choices.

The latest Kentucky Derby odds indicate Tapit Trice is one of the favorites, but if you think even a mild Blue Grass upset is coming, you may want to make your futures wager now.

Let’s carefully examine the field and see if we can find a Blue Grass value option or two.

2023 Blue Grass Stakes Odds

Finishing first or second in the Blue Grass should guarantee those horses entrance to the Kentucky Derby if their connections wish. First place is worth 100 qualifying points, with 40 going to the runner up. For horses who already have some points, getting 30 for finishing third, 20 for a fourth place performance, and 10 to race fifth could put them over the top.

NBC will televise the race which is set to begin at 5:15pm EST. Temperatures in Lexington are expected to be dry and in the low 60’s.

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Trainer Todd Pletcher, who won last weekend’s Florida Derby with Forte, and two weeks ago took the Louisiana Derby with Kingsbarns, can become the first conditioner to win the Blue Grass four times. He saddles Tapit Trice.

Let’s look at some top Blue Grass Stakes hopefuls.

Odds as of April 7

Pletcher has taken this route before

Racing at Tampa Bay Downs has never been regarded as the most conventional path to winning the roses. However, Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice, and both times those horses competed in Tampa.

In 2010 Super Saver finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby, was second in the Arkansas Derby, and won in Louisville. Always Dreaming opened his 2017 campaign by breaking his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs, before taking the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Tapit Trice blew by the field in the stretch at the Tampa Bay Derby.

That was a third straight win for the $1.3 million son of Wood Memorial winner Tapit. After running second in his debut in November at Aqueduct, he beat Slip Mahoney by a neck in the mud to break his maiden in New York on December 17. His 2023 debut was an eight length romp against optional claimers at Gulfstream Park.

Examining Tapit Trice’s Challengers

The three primary rivals to Tapit Trice require handicapping to determine whether you think they are reasonable rivals or worth tossing.

Raise Cain ran huge last month in New York.

A repeat of that performance would give Raise Cain a big chance on Saturday. However, it was a one turn race and now they are going around two turns, the Gotham was in the mud, the track that day strongly favored horses coming from behind, and none of his previous five races are good enough to compete with this group. Did he benefit from circumstances, or turn the corner?

Verifying was the favorite in Oaklawn Park’s Rebel Stakes on February 25. In the mud and presented with traffic trouble, he ran a distant fourth. Each of his three races last year, including a sixth place performance in the Breeders Cup, were decent.

His seasonal debut, a romp at Oaklawn against optional claimers, was very strong. Toss the Rebel and trust the previous races, or did he run into horses that are just better than him?

Blazing Sevens has two wins in five starts. Each of his three loses have come to Forte, the Kentucky Derby favorite. Trainer Chad Brown won this race last year with Zandon. Blazing Sevens beat Verifying in October, and was fifth in the Breeders Cup.

His 2023 debut was a mess. He finished eighth beaten by 26 lengths in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He was bothered early and never got comfortable. Can we toss that race and expect more of what was saw late last year?

A Dart on the lead?

The top contenders in the Blue Grass want to do their best running just off the pace, or closing quickly at the end. Could someone steal the race up front?

Major Blue has won back-to-back races against lesser competition and should be in front early. Eighty seven year old Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas has won this race twice, and the Kentucky Derby four times.

Scoobie Quando has been racing on a synthetic track at Turfway Park while Mendelssohns March tried the turf at Fair Grounds once, and won in the slop at Oaklawn Park lat month. Both are lightly raced, and could be near a tepid early tempo.

Blue Grass Prediction

Tapit Trice is bred to be a good one, and it is hard to knock his form though his competition has been good not great thus far.

Verifying makes all the sense in the world if you can excuse his last race, and doing so is reasonable.

From a value perspective, Blazing Sevens has beaten Verifying, and Brown is terrific when adding blinkers and getting the best out of horses second off a layoff. Forte isn’t running on Saturday, and Blazing Sevens should enjoy not seeing him in the starting gate.

Blue Grass Stakes Pick: Blazing Sevens (+600)