2019 Kentucky Derby Odds & Predictions

• A win in the Arkansas Derby has lifted Omaha Beach to the top of the Kentucky Derby odds
• Omaha Beach is showing no ill effects of recent surgery, but faces stiff competition from Baffert-trained stablemates, Roadster and Game Winner
• The Todd Pletcher-trained Spinoff is emerging as an intriguing dark horse following a solid second-place performance at Louisiana Derby

As the countdown continues toward the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening, a new favorite has emerged to claim victory in this year’s Run for the Roses, with Omaha Beach now perched at +400 in Kentucky Derby odds.

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

*Odds taken on 04/29/19

Omaha Beach Jockey Mike E. Smith Aiming for Second Straight Triple Crown Win

Omaha Beach has clearly benefited from having Mike E. Smith as his mount. The veteran jockey, who rode Justify to a Triple Crown win a year ago, has powered Omaha Beach to wins in each of his two graded stakes race appearances. The three-year-old colt hung on for a narrow win over early Kentucky Derby favorite Game Winner at last month’s Rebel Stakes, and followed up with an impressive run two weeks ago, topping Improbable with a strong run in the Arkansas Derby.

Omaha Beach leaving his workmate behind at the end of an excellent final #kyderby drill. Time and detail to come from ⁦@DRFWelsch⁩ pic.twitter.com/V05lxfWKRF

— Byron King (@BH_BKing) April 27, 2019

Trained by Richard E. Mandella, Omaha Beach looked right at home on the track at Churchill Downs in his final tune-up run under sunny skies this past weekend, outdistancing his workmate horse by five lengths and completing five furlongs in just 59 seconds.

The good weather in Louisville is not expected to last with the long-term forecast calling for rain on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

The good weather in Louisville is not expected to last with the long-term forecast calling for rain on Thursday, Friday, and race day Saturday. However, Omaha Beach showed fine form in the mud in his Arkansas Derby victory at Oaklawn Park.

Stablemates Roadster, Game Winner Among Favorites

Omaha Beach remains closely trailed by Roadster at +450, while his stablemate, Game Winner, has slipped to third on the Kentucky Derby odds board at +500.

Roadster will enter the Kentucky Derby on a winning note after recording an impressive come-from-behind victory in the Santa Anita Derby earlier this month, edging out Game Winner in his second straight win. The Bob Baffert-trained colt’s recent strong performance comes on the heels of a long layoff following throat surgery to address a chronic breathing problem.

Following a six-month absence, Roadster returned to winner’s circle in his return to action in early March, and also has a third-place finish to his credit in last September’s Del Mar Futurity.

Roadster from having to need throat surgery, to winning Santa Anita Derby, Game Winner had a 4-5 wide trip and ran huge as well.

— With the Works (@Racingwithbruno) April 6, 2019

Also trained by the legendary Baffert, Game Winner has failed to find the winner’s circle since opening his career with four straight wins. In addition to his victory at the Del Mar Futurity, in which Roadster finished third, Game Winner also recorded wins at the American Pharoah Stakes and the prestigious Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

But with his second-place performances at the Rebel Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, Game Winner now lags in eighth place on the Kentucky Derby standings.

Baffert-Trained Improbable Leads Middle of the Pack on Kentucky Derby Odds

Another Baffert-trained colt, Improbable, rounds out the top of the odds at +650, ahead of Tacitus at +850, Maximum Security at +1000, and Code of Honor at +1400.

Improbable closed out his preparation for the Kentucky Derby in the Arkansas Derby with a second straight second-place run, ending a stretch of three straight victories including a win in his graded stakes debut at the Los Alamitos Futurity.

City Zip x Rare Event. That man Bob Baffert again!

Improbable romped home to victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity, giving trainer Bob Baffert his 11th win in the race.

🎥 TVG pic.twitter.com/S9mLiHNtxV

— Racing Reflex (@Racing_Reflex) December 8, 2018

Tacitus is undefeated in a pair of graded stakes races, most recently galloping to victory at the Wood Memorial. This year’s Florida Derby winner Maximum Security remains the only undefeated horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby field, while Code of Honor remains close on the heels of the favorites despite producing uneven results of late, capped by a third-place finish at the Florida Derby.

Pletcher-Trained Spinoff Makes Impressive Return Following Lengthy Layoff

For those sports bettors looking for value near the bottom of the Kentucky Derby odds, Todd Pletcher-trained Spinoff might deserve a second look. Currently pegged at +2800, Spinoff was idle for five months after turning in a somewhat disappointing third-place performance in his grade stakes race debut at last summer’s Saratoga Special.

However, the three-year-old returned strong, picking up the win in his return to competition at Tampa Bay Downs in late February, and fell just short of the win at the Louisiana Derby last month.

Pletcher has enjoyed enormous success in American Thoroughbred racing, with a five total wins in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

Pletcher has enjoyed enormous success in American Thoroughbred racing, with a five total wins in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, while Spinoff’s mount John R. Velazquez also brings an impressive resume to this year’s race, with a pair of Kentucky Derby wins to his credit, most recently riding Always Dreaming to victory two years ago.

Pick: Omaha Beach (+400)

Longshot to watch: Spinoff (+2800)