Valero Texas Open Odds, Predictions, and Best Picks 2025

• The Valero Texas Open tees off Thursday, April 3rd, 2025
• Ludvig Aberg is the +1200 favorite over Tommy Fleetwood to win the tournament
• See my 2025 Valero Texas Open odds, picks, and best value bets below

Following Min Woo Lee’s maiden PGA Tour victory at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, the PGA Tour heads down the road to the Valero Texas Open. It’s the final tune-up tournament before the season’s first major commences at the Masters. Any player who isn’t currently qualified to make the trip down Magnolia Lane at Augusta National needs to win this tournament to automatically make the trip to the Masters. The event takes place at TPC San Antonio and plays to a par-72. Last year, Akshay Bhatia withstood a back-nine flurry by Denny McCarthy to claim the title in a playoff.

Valero Texas Open Odds 2025

Ludvig Aberg heads the field at +1200, as he has a victory to his credit in 2025 at the Genesis Invitational. Tommy Fleetwood is the +1400 second choice but he’s still in search for his first PGA Tour victory. Corey Conners, a two-time winner of this event (2019, 2023) goes off at +1600.

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Daniel Berger Poised To Get Back Into Winner’s Circle

After missing more than 18 months due to a back injury that was originally misdiagnosed three years ago, Daniel Berger took a while to find his footing upon his return. In 2025, however, he’s really proving that he can get back to be in the conversation among the game’s elite, after falling to #658 in the world at this point last year.

Past Five Texas Children’s Houston Open Winners

*There was no 2020 Valero Texas Open due to COVID-19.

In the last 24 rounds, Berger is second in total strokes gained and fourth tee-to-green. That’s because he’s posted the following results after a T-7 and runner-up towards the end of last year – T-2, 12th, T-25, T-15, T-20. He comes into the Valero Texas Open with a great deal of confidence, and at +3500 odds to win outright, I’m getting him at odds longer than the top-ten players on the betting docket. That screams value to me, and this could be the tournament that he wins for the first time since the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Valero Texas Open 2025 Picks & Value Bets

1. Matt Fitzpatrick +5500: (This is changed from Michael Kim, who withdrew from the tournament Monday). Matt Fitzpatrick hasn’t quite been firing on all cylinders in the last year and has switched his caddy, but these are tempting odds against a relatively weak field. Posted a top-10 at this tournament just last year, so he has some comfort level at TPC San Antonio.
2. Charley Hoffman +7000: Veteran Charley Hoffman has a sizzling record around this track, having taken the trophy in 2016. He also was second in 2011, 2019 and 2021. Hoffman ranks third in ball striking and fourth tee-to-green the last 24 rounds at this venue.
3. Matt Kuchar +8000: Matt Kuchar is no longer as consistent as he used to be, but he pops on leaderboards at events he’s done well at in the past. He has four career top-5s at the Valero, including a runner-up in 2022 and a T-3rd in 2023.
4. Max Homa +12000: There’s no way to sugarcoat it – Max Homa is very lost with his game. However, based on talent alone, the +11000 odds are way out of whack for the 6-time PGA Tour winner. Think about how Viktor Hovland went off at +6000 at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago because he similarly struggled, then suddenly found his swing and won the tournament.