Updated Odds to Win RBC Heritage + Expert Predictions for Sunday

• Justin Thomas is the +240 favorite to win the RBC Heritage entering the Final Round
• Thomas, the 18 and 36-hole leader lost the lead on Saturday, and is one-stroke back
• See the updated odds to win the RBC Heritage, plus my expert picks for Sunday

It’s been almost three years since Justin Thomas won a professional golf tournament. Online sportsbooks are giving him the best chance to claim the RBC Heritage trophy on Sunday, but I’m not buying it. Thomas enters play one stroke back of Si Woo Kim, with Scottie Scheffler and a cast of world class players all within striking distance.

RBC Heritage Updated Odds

Thomas boasts +240 odds to snap his win drought, slightly shorter than Kim at +250. Kim overtook Thomas on Saturday, after JT held the lead after 18 and 36 holes.

Thomas fired a course record 61 on Thursday to vault to the top of the leaderboard. But since then, it’s been a pair of pedestrian 2-under rounds of 69.

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Odds as of April 19 at DraftKings. Claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on the Masters. 

Fade Thomas at the Top

JT has had multiple close calls over the last 2+ years, posting three runner-up results. His most recent was last month at the Valspar, when he blew the back-9 lead on Sunday.

Thomas is one of the more dangerous players on Tour when he’s chasing, as few have the ability to stalk flags like him. When he’s out in front or lingering around the lead however, he tends to get too conservative. He’s fired two course records in his last three tournaments, by may wind up without a trophy to show for it.

The stats don’t love him on Sunday, and neither does the Data Golf model. They give Thomas a 21.8% chance of winning, meaning you’d need at least +356 odds to make betting on him a plus-ev wager.

Given the ball striking numbers he’s shown on Friday and Saturday, I wouldn’t bet him even if the odds were significantly more favorable. In Round 2, Thomas was 47th out of the 72 player field in ball striking. On Saturday, he was even worse. Thomas ranked 61st in ball striking and 49th in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s trending in the wrong direction, making him an easy fade.

As for Kim, he’s getting by with a hot putter and immaculate around the green game. He hasn’t ranked inside the top-20 in any of three rounds in strokes gained approach, and at a course that demands precision iron play it’s tough to see that stat profile claiming victory.

RBC Heritage Expert Predictions for Sunday

1. Scottie Scheffler to Win (+900): So that means we’re expecting someone to come from multiple strokes back to win this title. No one is more capable than Scheffler of doing that, and he’s our number one target at +900. Scheffler is first this week in ball striking and second in strokes gained approach. His putting has held him back, but we know he’s capable of ceiling performances on the greens. Just last year, Scheffler gained strokes putting on the field at this tournament en route to victory. In the last two tournaments alone, he’s gained 11.3 strokes with the putter, so it’s only a matter of time before the flat stick heats back up.
2. Sepp Straka Top-10 (+1100): Another player due for some positive regression with the putter is Sepp Straka. The Austrian is third in the field in ball striking this week, but 46th in putting and 71st in around the green play. He gained the second most strokes with his irons on Saturday, vaulting himself up 18 spots on the leaderboard from 46th to T28. I’m betting that his hot iron play will continue, and he can gain another 18 spots to sneak into the top-10.