The American Express PGA Predictions, Picks & Odds (2025)

• The American Express from La Quinta, California, tees off Thursday, January 16th
• Xander Schauffele was the +700 favorite but has pulled out
• See the 2025 The American Express odds, picks, and best value bets below

The third PGA Tour event of the 2025 calendar heads to the mainland, after the first two were contested in Hawaii. It’s The American Express from La Quinta, California, where last year, Nick Dunlap became the first amateur to win on the main circuit since Phil Mickelson in 1991. World #1 and #2 Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele were both scheduled to headline originally, but both withdrew, leaving two-time PGA Champion Justin Thomas, who has been knocking on the door of late to get back into the winners circle, as the main attraction. Going low is imperative for success at this event that uses three courses, with 17 straight and 31 of the last 32 players shooting at least 20-under-par en route to the title.

The American Express Odds 2025

The betting favorite was Xander Schauffele, who won a pair of majors in 2024 and finished tied for third as this tournament the last two years. But the world #2 pulled out, just like world #1 Scottie Scheffler before him. He’s followed closely by Justin Thomas, who had a runner-up and a third place showing to end last year. Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns round out the top-five.

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Patrick Fishburn Knocking on the Door

Patrick Fishburn had a very successful rookie campaign in 2024, posting a pair of third place results and five top-10s. He’s also been very strong of late, with a T-12 at the World Wide Technology Championship, a T-8 at the RSM Classic, and a T-6 at last weeks Sony Open in Hawaii, where he entered the final round just one shot off the lead.

Past Five The American Express Winners

This tournament has produced shocking winners in recent memory, with last year amateur (at the time) Nick Dunlap going off at +40000 pre-event, Adam Long +60000 in 2019, and Andrew Landry (2020) and Hudson Swafford (2022) +20000 pre-tourney. While Fishburn doesn’t present quite of juicy longshot odds to claim the trophy, he still has value at +5000, given how well he’s been playing of late, and his strong rookie showing.

The American Express 2025 Predictions, Picks and Value Bets

1. Adam Hadwin (+7000): Adam Hadwin will look to make it back-to-back Canadians to win on tour, after Nick Taylor. He’s done everything but win this tournament in the past, with five top-sixes, including one last year. He also had a three-year stretch of going runner-up, tied third, tied second at the AmEx.
2. Lee Hodges (+9000): Still chasing the dominance that led to a seven stroke victory at the 2023 3M Open, Lee Hodges has quietly had a string of strong performances, with three top-10s and four top-20s in his last five starts. In 2022, he was the 54-hole co-leader at this event, before winding up in a tie for third.
3. Michael Kim (+10000): Another player determined to get his second victory after a run-away title, Michael Kim won the 2018 John Deere Classic by eight shots. With a super low score needed to win, his 4.36 birdies per round average in 2024 ranked eighth, which will serve him well. He was T-6th here in 2024, and has three top-12s in the last five times teeing it up.