Masters Picks & Best Bets for Round 1 – Get a +7500 Prop to Target

• Round 1 at the Masters tees of Thursday morning from Augusta National Golf Club
• Sam Burns has shot 73 or worse in five of his eight career rounds at the Masters
• See my Masters picks and best bets for Round 1, below

Thursday at the Masters is like Christmas morning for golf fans. We’ve waited a full year to get back to Augusta National, the Holy Grail, and online sportsbooks have rewarded us with a bevy of markets to bet on. You can sweat your bets for all four rounds, or you can wager on a loaded menu of Round 1 props. I’ve compiled my favourite four bets below, see keeping reading to see the odds and analysis for each one.

Round 1 Masters Picks

Three of the four wagers are in the Round Score market, headlined by Sam Burns. The Louisiana native enters with his longest Masters odds in a few years, thanks to some poor form. He’s -105 to exceed 72.5 strokes on Thursday, something he’s accustom to doing at the Masters.

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Masters Best Bets for Round 1

• Sam Burns Over 72.5 Strokes (-105 at FanDuel)
• Nick Taylor Over 72.5 Strokes (-120 at FanDuel)
• Tyrrell Hatton Over 71.5 Strokes (-110 at FanDuel)

In eight career rounds at Augusta National, Burns has shot 73 or worse five times. Last year, he fired rounds of 80 and 73 en route to a missed cut, with both rounds coming in incredibly soft conditions.

Burns enters the week with three consecutive missed cuts on Tour, losing strokes ball striking, tee-to-green, and around the green in each start. He ranks 52nd in the field in bogey avoidance at the Masters, and 92nd in double bogey avoidance.

Sam Burns Masters History

Last year, in favorable conditions, Augusta National played +1.91 strokes over par, making it the third most difficult course all season. Shooting even par is going to an accomplishment this week, as ideal weather conditions will make the famous course play extremely fast and firm. Given how Burns is playing, I expect him to struggle out of the gate.

Another player I’m betting against, is Nick Taylor. He’s -120 to exceed 72.5 strokes as well, a wager I’m thrilled to make. This will be Taylor’s third trip to the Masters, and his second time playing the tournament in April. He was a debutant at the fall Masters in 2020, and fared well thanks to the record setting easy conditions.

Last year, he got smacked with a cold dose of reality. Taylor shot rounds of 77 and 81, missing the cut by more than a touchdown. Like Burns, Taylor’s recent form is poor. He’s trunk slammed in back-to-back events, and just doesn’t possess the length to challenge this 7,500+ yard behemoth.

My last bet in this market is over 71.5 strokes for Tyrrell Hatton. This is a player who’s on record saying he hates Augusta National. Imagine the nerve. Perhaps his course history is the reason for his distain, as he’s shot 72 or worse in 24 of 28 career rounds at the Masters.

Now that he’s on LIV, he’s out of sight and out of mind. Let me be the first tell you though, he has not played well recently. Hatton has finished inside the top-20 just once this season on LIV, against 48 men fields. That result was way back in February, and his stat profile is equally as discouraging.

Hatton ranks outside the top-15 in putting on LIV, and outside the top-30 in strokes gained off the tee, and around the green. I’m running, not walking, to the window to bet against him this week.

Masters Picks for Round 1

• Justin Rose Most Birdies or Better (+7500 at DraftKings)

No Masters article is complete this week without at least one longshot pick. Justin Rose is a popular first round leader bet, and it’s not hard to see why. However, a better way to bet on Rose, at more favorable odds, is for him to record the most birdies in Round 1.

For starters, Rose knows Augusta National like the back of his hand. He’s an elite Par-5 scorer, and should take full advantage of those scoring holes.

Rose has been inconsistent in 2024, but when he’s popped, he’s been in contention. He has a top-8 at the API, and a top-3 at Pebble Beach. He was T-6 or better in two of the four Majors last year, and ranks third in the field over the last 24 rounds in birdies at Augusta National.