First Round Leader Odds at 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational

• The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, outside of Orlando, FL tees off Thursday, March 4th
• Rory McIlroy is the favorite to be the first-round leader over Viktor Hovland
• See the best bets and odds to grab the first-round lead in the article below 

After Collin Morikawa won his first career World Golf Championships event at the WGC-Workday Championship, the PGA Tour heads two hours down the road to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

With nine of the top 20 golfers in the world teeing it up, 2018 champion Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite to pick up his second career API title over Viktor Hovland.

He’s also the favorite to grab the first round lead after a stellar track record around Bay Hill that has resulted in four straight top six finishes.

In this article, we’ll explore which players have the best chance of being the leader after day one at Bay Hill.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational First Round Leader Odds

All odds taken March 2nd at FanDuel

The forecast looks promising as it’ll be sunny all day long, as the morning wave will be facing temperatures in the high 50’s, and it getting as hot as 75 degrees by mid-day. The wind will also be nearly the same throughout the round, with wind gusts ranging between twelve and 14 MPH all day.

A benefit for those playing in the morning is the exact same as it is every week – less bumpy greens with fewer players chewing them up.

Sam Burns Playing Phenomenal Golf

In his last tournament two weeks at the Genesis Invitational, Sam Burns grabbed the first round lead and very nearly went wire-to-wire for his first PGA Tour victory. His opening day 64 put him out front, and two events before that he was a shot out of first place after 18 holes in Phoenix.

Of those teeing it up at Bay Hill, he has the second best first round scoring average, having posted seven of ten rounds in the 60’s, with five rounds of 67 or better, including a trio of 64’s (two in last three events).

2020-21 PGA Tour First Round Scoring Average Leaders

In the last 36 rounds, he’s fourth in total strokes gained, fourth in SG: putting (on Bermuda greens, which Bay Hill has), sixth in ball striking, seventh off the tee and eighth tee-to-green. Though he hasn’t sealed the deal on his maiden victory, Burns knows how to start off hot.

• Pick: Sam Burns (+3300)

Branden Grace Back In Winners Circle

Branden Grace comes into this tournament riding high, finishing the final round of the Puerto Rico Open eagle-birdie to claim his second career PGA Tour title, and first since 2016.

He won that tournament with all four rounds in the 60’s, and eleven of his last twelve rounds he’s shot par or better. In five of his last six events, the South African has gained shots on the field, making him an intriguing sleeper to consider to win outright this week.

CLUTCH! 😱@BrandenGrace holes out for eagle on 17 to take the lead @PuertoRicoOpen.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/b6wPYSBrbJ

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 28, 2021

In his last seven opening rounds, Grace has shot par or better. In his last twelve rounds on tour, he’s fourth in the field in total strokes gained, so riding the hot hand for one more round is very enticing.

• Pick: Branden Grace (+6500)

Emiliano Grillo a Great Sleeper Candidate

Considering that Emiliano Grillo has five top-25’s this season, including a T-11 last week in Puerto Rico, it’s really surprising to see his odds to grab the first round lead at +10000.

Earlier in the campaign, he posted an opening round of 66 or better in five of six tournaments, contributing to him being eleventh best in the field in Thursday scoring.

He’s also 13th on the season in strokes gained off the tee, which is critical to success at Bay Hill. He loves this track historically, posting T-17, T-7 and T-26 results from 2016-18.

Subsequently, his strokes gained stats have been strong on this layout.

Emiliano Grillo Strokes Gained Rankings at Bay Hill In Last 12 Rounds

For a player in good form that’s shown a knack for scoring well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, these odds are extremely juicy to wager on for the first round lead.

Pick: Emiliano Grillo (+10000)