Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds to Make/Miss the Cut

• Odds to make and miss the cut are live for the Arnold Palmer Invitational which begins on Thursday
• SI Woo Kim has missed the cut at this event in three of his past five appearances
• See below for the complete list of Arnold Palmer Invitational make and miss the cut odds

The Florida swing on the PGA Tour continues this week with another daunting task at Bay Hill CC. However, unlike last week’s challenge at PGA National, this week’s field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is absolutely loaded. That’s because we have another elevated event on our hands, with a $20 million prize pool.

The gigantic purse has lured nearly all of the game’s top stars to Arnie’s place, most of whom are in fine form. Betting against them to make the weekend can be a very profitable endeavour if you choose correctly, however there’s one player from the next tier of golfers I’m honing in on to trunk slam this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Make the Cut Odds

Before we get to our target, we have to touch on the favorites. Jon Rahm, the pre-tournament chalk, has -5000 odds to make the cut, and a +900 price tag to miss the cut. He’s followed by Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, before the odds start to drop off significantly.

Towards the bottom you’ll find Si Woo Kim, who has not fared well at Bay Hill over the course of his career.

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Odds as of February 28 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Si Woo Kim Trending Down

Kim has missed the cut three times in his last five appearances at the API. He also has a withdrawal during that stretch and a 26th place finish. He’s lost at least 4 total strokes to the field in three of those starts, and if you go back to 2016, he’s lost at least 3 total strokes four times at Bay Hill.

Si Woo Kim Last 7 Starts at Bay Hill CC

Kim won earlier this season at the Sony Open, but his ball striking has been trending down ever since. He’s lost at least 2.2 strokes on approach in three of his past four starts, and trunk slammed last time out at the Genesis. His putting has been keeping him afloat over the last month and a half, but we shouldn’t expect that to continue at Bay Hill. Arnie’s place features Bermuda grass greens, which is statistically Kim’s worst putting surface.

He’s lost at least 4.4 strokes on the greens at Bay Hill in four of his past seven appearances, with two of those outings producing -6.1 and -7.6 strokes gained putting totals.

Pick: Si Woo Kim to Miss Cut (+150)

Make the Cut Parlay

We may be down on Kim, but there’s plenty of golfers we expect to make it through all four rounds. Justin Thomas is at the top of that list, and he headlines our make the cut parlay. Thomas hasn’t missed a cut on American soil since May of last year, and ranks seventh in strokes gained tee to green over the past 50 rounds.

Will Zalatoris is our next leg, after a marvelous ball striking performance at Riviera. Zalatoris gained 7.8 strokes ball striking at Tiger’s tournament en route to a fourth place finish. Over the past 50 rounds, he ranks top-six in scoring, strokes gained tee-to-green and ball striking.

Strong Sunday from @WillZalatoris 👏 pic.twitter.com/wInzG1xt7m

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 19, 2023

Next, let’s target a pair of Englishmen Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrell Hatton. Fitzpatrick has four straight top-10’s at Bay Hill, while Hatton won in 2020 and finished second last year.

Hideki Matsuyama checks in as our anchor leg, as he’s simply mispriced. The 2021 Masters champ has made 10 of his last 11 cuts, and has back-to-back top-20’s at Arnie’s place.

Pick: Make the Cut Parlay (+194)