2022 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Sleepers and Upset Picks

• The 2022 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play begins on Wednesday (March 23rd) from Austin Country Club
• Shane Lowry has gained at least 5.7 strokes tee-to-green, and 1.1 strokes with his short game in three straight starts
• Read below for our favorite sleepers and upset picks for this week’s tournament

The first WGC event of 2022 takes place this week on the PGA Tour. Gone, for one week only, is the traditional 72-hole format, and in its place is a match play competition at Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas, complete with its own March Madness style field – which you can see in the WGC Dell Technologies odds and bracket.

If recent history is any indication, we’re going to want to target elite short game players. The last two winners, Billy Horschel and Kevin Kisner, are wizards on and around the greens, while 2018 champ Bubba Watson has been known to gain a copious amount of strokes with his short game when he’s in top form.

2022 WGC Dell Technologies Match Play Odds

Odds as of March 21st at DraftKings 

That means we’re likely going to pass on some of our favorite ball striking savants in the betting market. Masters odds contender Victor Hovland, who ranks third in the field in ball striking over the past 24 rounds but last in strokes gained around the green, is an immediate cross off. Ditto for Paul Casey, who is sixth in strokes gained approach over the same time frame, but bottom-19 in strokes gained around the green and putting.

Our sleepers and upset picks card starts with Shane Lowry, who’s been flashing a complete game over his past three starts.

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Loads of Value on Lowry

Setting aside Lowry’s form for a moment, he got dealt a very favorable draw. His pod consists of himself, Brooks Koepka, Harold Varner and Erik Van Rooyen. He may be the second highest ranked player in the group, but he’s tied for the shortest odds to advance to the next round, and is playing better than all three of his fellow competitors.

THE BRACKET! pic.twitter.com/fo42brzAAM

— Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) March 21, 2022

Lowry enters play having gained at least 5.7 strokes tee-to-green in three straight events. He’s also gained at least 1.1 strokes in each of those starts with his short game, parlaying those numbers into three consecutive top-13 finishes, including a runner-up result.

This is much better with Micheal O' Hehir commentary👌 😂⛳🇮🇪 @ShaneLowryGolf pic.twitter.com/Uef8Y5LHOp

— Rory's Stories (@RorysStories) March 14, 2022

He also has more match play experience than not only everyone in his group, but most of the field overall. A potential Sweet 16 matchup versus tournament favorite Jon Rahm could be looming should he advance, but as we’ve seen over the years at this tournament, no one is invincible.

• Pick: Shane Lowry to Win Outright (+4000), Top-4 Finish (+1000), To Win Group (+220)

Back to the Well With Noren

Next up, we’re going right back to Alex Noren. The Swede has been a model of consistency on Tour this season, and it’s only a matter of time before he finds himself in the winner’s circle.

Noren is known as an elite short game player and that magical touch has been on display recently. He gained 8.3 strokes with his short game last week at the Valspar Championship, which marks the second time in his last five starts he’s gained at least that many shots on the field in that category.

Bump-and-run magic from Alex Noren. 👏#LiveUnderPar pic.twitter.com/a09mCeJflH

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) November 23, 2019

As good as his short game has been, his ball striking has also been elite recently. He’s gained at least 6.1 strokes combined off the tee and on approach in two of his last three starts, and has gained at least 1.2 strokes on approach in five of his past six tournaments.

Alex Noren has either won or halved 81.4% of the holes he has played at Austin CC, the highest rate of anybody in the field this week with at least 60 holes played.

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) March 21, 2022

Also working in his favor, is his dominance at this event. Noren has made it out of the group stage in each of his three appearances at Austin CC, and has either won or halved 81.4% of the holes he’s played at this tournament. For those keeping track at home, that’s the highest percentage of anyone in the field with at least 60 holes played.

• Pick: Alex Noren to Win Outright (+6000), Top-4 Finish (+1400), To Win Group (+275)

Favorite Upset Picks to Win Group

1. Robert MacIntyre (+275): Lefties have done very well at this event in the past. Watson won in 2018, while Brian Harman has posted 5th and 9th place finishes in his two starts. MacIntyre continued that trend last year by winning his group and I like him to do so again. He ranks seventh in the field in strokes gained around the green over his past 24 rounds, and 20th in strokes gained tee-to-green.
2. Cameron Young (+275): He’s getting a lot of buzz as a potential sleeper in Group 1 for good reason. He has three top-16 results in his past four starts at some of golf’s most challenging venues (Riviera, PGA National, and Bay Hill). He gained at least 4.4 strokes tee-to-green in those three hi-end finishes, and twice gained more than 2.7 strokes with his short game.