2022 Honda Classic Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The 2022 Honda Classic from PGA National begins on Thursday (Feb. 24th)
• Alex Noren finished third here in 2018 and is fresh off an excellent ball-striking performance at the Genesis
• Read below for our favorite Honda Classic sleepers and longshot picks

It’s Honda Classic week on the PGA Tour starting on Thursday (Feb. 24), so brace yourself for carnage. PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, is one of the toughest tracks players will face all season, and the best way to describe it is simply treacherous. However, there are some lines that provide great value when looking at the Honda Classic sleepers and longshots available on the board.

Water is in play on 15 of the 18 holes, and over the past 15 years, 6,200 golf balls have found the drink. Not surprisingly, the winning score is more likely to resemble that of a Major than a regular Tour event.

2022 Honda Classic Sleepers & Longshot Picks

All odds as of Feb. 21st at DraftKings.

What is surprising, however, is the number of longshot winners this tournament has produced. The average odds of the last 12 champions is 131-1, and three golfers over that stretch have claimed victory after starting the week with an outright price of +30000 or longer.

As a result, our Honda Classic sleepers and longshots card will include a pair of bombs from way down the board, but we’ll start in the mid-range with Alex Noren.

Honda Classic Longshot Pick – Alex Noren

The Swede has 10 career victories worldwide but is still looking for his first win on American soil. He owns a handful of top-five finishes on the PGA Tour, including a third-place result at this track back in 2018.

Noren has won at some of the hardest courses on the European Tour and has been flushing the ball recently. He’s fresh off gaining over 2.5 strokes ball striking in back-to-back events, one of which was a top-six result in Phoenix.

Past Winners/Odds #HondaClassic pic.twitter.com/CQITZgt1es

— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) February 21, 2022

Poor putting let him down last week at the Genesis, but he’ll be back on Bermuda greens this week, which he much prefers. He averages +0.3 strokes gained putting per round on the field on that surface and gained 7.4 strokes with the flat stick two weeks ago at the Waste Management Open.

Honda … some trends

8 of the past 11 winners had finished 13th or better at PGA National in a previous yr
10 of the last 11 winners had made the cut at PGA National at least once
4 of last 5 winners had produced a top-10 finish or better on the West Coast already that season

— Geoff (@thefantasygrind) February 21, 2022

He also fits a trio of trends that the majority of the past 11 winners have boasted and seems like a great value in the outright market this week. Buyer beware though, as his price varies anywhere from +3100 to +4000 in the Honda Classic odds, so make sure you shop for the best number.

Pick: Alex Noren to Win (+4000)

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Honda Classic Sleeper Pick – Lucas Glover

Moving down the odds board we’ll find Lucas Glover at +6500 to win, and +550 in the T10 market. Glover has finished T19, T4, and T17 in three of the past four years and is one of the best pure ball strikers in the field.

2 shot lead for Lucas Glover at the 5th major pic.twitter.com/wXG1bEdIpL

— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) July 11, 2021

Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 12th in ball-striking, 10th on approach and 19th in strokes gained tee-to-green. He also put up a fantastic fifth-place finish at the Sony Open this year, and Waialae Country Club is one of the best corollary courses to PGA National on Tour. Lucas Glover is actually priced at +600 to finish in the Top 10 at Caesars Sportsbook in the Honda Classic longshot odds.

Pick: Lucas Glover to Win (+6500), Top 10 (+550)

Top 20 Value Picks

1. Sam Ryder (+400): He posted a T8 result here last year and has finished just outside the top-20 in back-to-back events coming in. He’s made four of five cuts in 2022 so far and is looking to improve upon a 2021 year where he finished T20 or better a personal best five times.
2. Harry Higgs (+500): Is there anyone more fun to root for than Harry Higgs? The 30-year-old has made the cut in every Florida swing tournament he’s entered over the past two years, including a T19 result at this event last year. He tends to play his best golf on Bermuda greens, gaining an average of 0.38 strokes per round on the field on that surface.