2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers and Longshot Picks at Bay Hill

• The 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational from Bay Hill Golf Course begins on Thursday (March 3rd)
• Adam Scott is fresh off a fourth place finish at the Genesis where he gained 7 strokes with his ball striking and 7.2 strokes with his putter
• Read below for our favorite Arnold Palmer Invitational sleepers and longshot picks

The PGA Tour’s Florida swing continues this week, as golfers head to Bay Hill Golf Course for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Given that this is the late Mr. Palmer’s tournament, it’s a can’t miss event for many of the game’s greatest players. World #1 Jon Rahm is here, as are four of the other top 11 players in the world.

There’s plenty of value to be had in the Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, including Hideki Matsuyama at 25-1, and Sungjae Im at +3000, but we’re going to start our sleepers and longshots betting card a little further down the board with our favorite pick: Adam Scott.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers & Longshot Picks

All odds as of Feb. 28th at DraftKings.

The Aussie is fresh off an immaculate ball striking performance last time out at the Genesis en-route to a fourth place finish, and fits one of the key trends of recent winners.

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Scott Has Been Great at Bay Hill

Six of the past seven winners have had a previous top-five finish at this event. Scott checks that box, as he’s placed third at this tournament twice over his impressive career.

Another strong week at Riviera for Adam Scott, looking like a top 5 finish. He’s making a big push for a 2nd Green Jacket, this result will only boost his confidence, which is already building after a good start to the year in the Middle East.

— Luke Elvy (@Luke_Elvy) February 20, 2022

He gained seven strokes at Riviera with his ball striking, including 5.9 shots on approach, and another 7.2 strokes on the greens. He’s always been known as one of the best ball strikers on the planet, but lately his putter, which has often been his demise, has been equally as sharp. Scott’s gained strokes on the greens in 18 of his past 23 starts.

Adam Scott Strokes Gained Ranks – Last 50 Rounds

He’s recorded two top-nine results in three starts so far in 2022, and has an excellent history at some of the best comp courses to Bay Hill. He finished second at Torrey Pines in 2019, won at Riviera a year later, and of course claimed the Green Jacket at Augusta National in 2013.

• Pick: Adam Scott to Win (+3500)

Can Fleetwood Be Tommy Boy This Week?

The golf betting community is incredibly fickle. A week after Tommy Fleetwood was an extremely popular choice in the outright market at the Honda Classic, no one seems to want to touch him at Bay Hill at a much better number.

Tommy Fleetwood's swing is ____.pic.twitter.com/2rbSBshZYI

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) March 1, 2020

Sure, his ball striking was off at PGA National, but that course swallowed up many of the top players last week. Now, he returns to the API where he has a sparkling track record. Fleetwood has finished T10 or better three times at Bay Hill over the past five years, including a third place result in 2019 when he was the 36-hole leader.

The Englishmen absolutely thrives in Florida, posting a top-10 result in six of his past 10 starts in the Sunshine State.

• Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top-10 (+400)

Top 20 Value Picks

1. Keegan Bradley (+350): Ranks seventh in the field in ball striking over the past 50 rounds, and ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green. He’s made nine straight cuts at this tournament, including three top-10 finishes, and was fourth after 54 holes at Bay Hill last year.
2. Brendan Steele (+700): Similar to Fleetwood, Steele was a chalky pick last week at the Honda Classic but failed his backers. A deeper look at his numbers doesn’t reveal anything alarming, as he gained 1.4 strokes with his ball striking, while losing 2.8 strokes on the greens. No one will ever confuse Steele with an elite putter, as he’s been a negative in that category in six of his past seven measured events, but he’s had his most success on Bermuda Greens, like the ones featured at Bay Hill. He also boasts a strong track record at this event, finishing T18 or better in two of the past three years.