2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open Sleepers and Longshot Picks

• The PGA Tour season continues with the Waste Management Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale on Thursday, February 4th
• Bubba Watson has finished 3rd and 4th in his past two trips to this tournament
• Read below for analysis of the event and our favorite sleepers and longshot plays

With Patrick Reed’s controversial win at the Farmers Insurance Open in the rearview mirror, the PGA Tour moves to the desert this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. TPC Scottsdale has become the biggest party on the circuit over the last few years, but thanks to COVID only a limited number of fans will be in attendance for this event.

Last week, Francesco Molinari cashed a +600 top-10 ticket for us, but we’re still chasing our first longshot, outright winner of the season. With an exceptionally strong field at this year’s tournament, we’re getting much more favorable odds on some of the second tiered talent, and we’ll start our card with a two-time Major winner.

2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open

Odds taken Feb. 1st at DraftKings.

TPC Scottsdale Is a Bubba Track

Bubba Watson hasn’t won since the 2018 season, but he’s come extremely close twice in the last two years at TPC Scottsdale. He finished T-3 here last year and T-4 in 2019, gaining a combined 18.5 strokes tee-to-green along the way.

Bubba missed the cut last week at Torrey Pines in his first start of 2021, but prior to that reeled off two top-7 finishes in his previous three events.

Number from @JTedScott.

Delivery from @BubbaWatson.#QuickHits pic.twitter.com/49Avjdl0ks

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 28, 2021

Ball striking and Par-5 scoring are key at this track, and despite his unorthodox swing, few hit it as pure as Watson. Over the last 50 rounds he ranks third in this field in ball striking and 19th in Par-5 scoring. He’s gained strokes tee-to-green in nine of his past 10 measured events, and only seven players in the field have gained more total strokes at this course over the past five years.

Pick: Bubba Watson to Win Outright (+5000)

Homa’s Form Is Fantastic

Our second target is social media favorite Max Homa, who enters this week in fabulous form. He’s finished 21st or better in three straight starts, most recently picking up an 18th place paycheque at Torrey Pines.

Solid week in San Diego. Couldn’t get the putts to fall but that’s Torrey Pines for ya! Happy with where my game is trending. Just need to keep plugging along til it clicks. Now I’m, as Faldo says, going Homa for a week #golf

— max homa (@Maxhoma) February 1, 2021

He gained 4.5 strokes on approach last week, and would have been staring down a much higher finish if not for a poor putting performance. He lost 1.9 strokes with the flat stick at Torrey, but now returns to a spot where he’s had great success in the past. Last year, Homa finished 6th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, gaining 6.2 strokes tee-to-green, including 4.9 with his ball striking. He finished 26th in his only other start at this event, and given how well he’s striking it, another top-10 finish this week is certainly in his range of outcomes.

Pick: Max Homa Top-10 Finish (+600)

List’s Game in a Groove

Our final target is Luke List, who has put on a ball striking clinic over the past two weeks. He gained 7.5 and 6 strokes ball striking respectively at the Farmers and the American Express, racking up a 10th and 21st place finish along the way. What’s even more impressive about his 10th place result at Torrey was the fact that he shot 77 on Friday, but rebounded with a 72 in tough conditions on Saturday, and a blistering 66 on Sunday.

Luke List Strokes Gained Stats – Last 2 Weeks

Like Homa, List’s outcome last week could have been significantly better if not for an ice cold putter. He lost 3 strokes on the greens at Torrey, and 2.4 strokes putting at the AmEx. Poor putting is nothing unusual for List, and is something you have to be prepared for when backing him. He’s lost strokes putting in 11 straight measured events, but his elite ball striking always keeps him afloat. If he can ever find a positive putting week, his ceiling is an outright victory, but he can still cash a top-20 ticket for us even with another shaky putting performance.

Pick: Luke List Top-20 Finish (+350)